With the Colorado Avalanche‘s 5-3 comeback win against the Toronto Maple Leafs (Jan. 13) this past weekend, the team improved its overall record to 28-12-3 after winning 11 of their last 15 games. They currently sit fourth in the league by points percentage (PTS%) with a mark of .686 and are only two points behind the Vancouver Canucks for the Western Conference lead, with both teams having played 43 games so far this season.
The Avalanche are on pace to collect 112 points this season, three more than their total from the 2022-23 season. The team has done well to find success despite once again navigating injury troubles, with the club ranking sixth by cumulative Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) according to NHL Injury Viz. The organization got some welcome news with captain Gabriel Landeskog skating at practice, the first time he’s been on the ice in skates since Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final.
Related: Colorado Avalanche 2023-24 Midseason Review: MacKinnon, Makar & More
For all of the positive developments, the team and fans should be cautiously optimistic. There is still a ton of hockey left to be played before we even reach the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, with regular-season accolades still to be won, a trade deadline to be navigated, and player health to preserve. Let’s dive into what the Avalanche will face during the second half of the 2023-24 season, and how it could determine how the team fares this upcoming spring.
Avalanche Have Difficult Remaining Schedule
According to Tankathon’s strength-of-schedule (SOS) metric, only the Arizona Coyotes have a tougher remaining schedule than the Avalanche in the Western Conference. This gives Colorado’s closest competitors a leg up in the races for the division and conference titles, and makes their intra-conference matchups even more consequential in the second half of the campaign.
In particular, the Avalanche still have five combined games left against the Canucks (two), the Dallas Stars (two), and the Winnipeg Jets (one), the three Western Conference clubs immediately ahead and behind them in the standings.
Further, Colorado is slated to face the red-hot Edmonton Oilers – winners of 10 straight and 14 of their last 17 – three more times before the season is out. All of those matchups could make the difference between potentially facing one of the Nashville Predators or the Seattle Kraken in the first round, or one of the other more formidable Western Conference powers.
Fortunately for the Avalanche, the other top dogs in the West won’t be facing extraordinarily easy schedules down the stretch. The Canucks (13th), Jets (16th), Vegas Golden Knights (19th), and Stars (20th) are all set to face a collection of opponents of average to above-average difficulty, making it tough to clearly pinpoint favorites in the division and conference races.
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The Los Angeles Kings (11th in the NHL by PTS%) are the only notable contender who will have the benefit of an extremely forgiving rest-of-season schedule (30th by SOS). They can count on eight combined dates against the San Jose Sharks (two), Chicago Blackhawks (three), and Anaheim Ducks (three) over their final 43 games, but the Kings have also lost 12 of their last 19 games after winning 13 of their first 20.
It doesn’t help that the top teams in the conference have all been on fire over the past month and a half. Since Dec. 1, the top three teams in the NHL and five of the top seven by PTS% all hail from the West. The Jets (winners of 16 of their last 20), Oilers (14 of their last 17), and Canucks (14 of their last 19) have all laid siege to their recent string of opponents. The Avalanche have done well to win 13 of their last 21 in that same time frame, but it’s been nearly impossible to gain points on their closest adversaries.
Avalanche Succeeding Despite Goaltending Concerns
Apart from the aforementioned injury concerns, the Avalanche must address two glaring issues with their current roster: goaltending and the second-line center position. In terms of the first, it’s difficult to see where a significant upgrade can be made, especially when the team has so few assets with which to bargain.
Alexandar Georgiev submitted an excellent debut campaign with the Avalanche in 2022-23, making the third-most starts (62), winning the most games (tied with 40), and finishing top 10 in save percentage (.919 SV%) among qualified goalies (10 games played). He’s once again faced a heavy workload this season (he leads the league with 35 starts) but his numbers have dropped significantly, with his .898 SV% and 2.98 goals-against average (GAA) both ranking in the bottom half of all goalies.
Backup Ivan Prosvetov – claimed off of waivers earlier this season – has made eight starts this season, but his SV% (.895) and GAA (3.16) rank even lower than Georgiev’s marks. 23-year-old Justus Annunen owns a .914 SV% over the past two seasons with the American Hockey League (AHL) Colorado Eagles, but he’s better served seeing regular starts in the minors rather than being tabbed as a savior.
Georgiev owns a respectable .911 SV% and 2.66 GAA over his last 98 games, but the Avalanche will have to hope that he can rebound from this slump if they are to make a deep run in the postseason. Several goalies highlight THW’s trade board, but the available options either carry too high of a cap hit, aren’t any more reliable than what the Avalanche currently have, or would be too costly in terms of assets.
Avalanche Must Address Second-Line Center Role
At this point, addressing the second-line center role is the most pressing concern for general manager Chris MacFarland. Ryan Johansen and Ross Colton were two of the team’s biggest offseason acquisitions with the hope that one could make the top-six spot their own. Colton (nine goals and 19 points in 41 games) has been a good fit in the bottom-six, but Johansen (11 goals and 17 points in 43 games) has seen his ice time and production drop with every passing month.
Given that Johansen is older, doesn’t seem to fit the Avalanche’s up-tempo style, and carries a $4 million cap hit through next season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him included as a salary makeweight if the team makes a significant trade as they have very little cap room in which to maneuver.
Avalanche Should Be Favorites for 2024 Stanley Cup
In spite of their tough remaining schedule and concerns with two key roster positions, the Avalanche should be considered a favorite to win the 2024 Stanley Cup.
The team has managed to climb into the top five of the overall standings behind superhuman efforts from Hart Trophy frontrunner Nathan MacKinnon (69 points in 43 games) and Norris Trophy contender Cale Makar (48 in 38). Mikko Rantanen (55 in 43), Valeri Nichushkin (42 in 40), and Devon Toews (24 in 43) help form one of the best cores in the entire league, giving the club an outstanding foundation off which to build.
Addressing the roster issues won’t be cheap or easy but if done, could lift the Avalanche above the rest of the West. Your move, MacFarland, the legacy of this core depends on it.
Data courtesy of the NHL.