It’s been a tough season for the Columbus Blue Jackets. Despite flashes of optimism in the offseason – through a shiny new third overall pick, adding a couple of top-four defensemen, and a fresh faced rookie head coach – the team is no better. I’m not being hyperbolic…they are literally no better. On Jan. 27 of 2023 and 2024, the team only had 15 wins through their respective seasons. It’s actually a pretty wild stat, when you think about it.
Ivan Provorov was one of those defenders that was brought in with hopes of shoring up the team’s blue line. On Jan. 26 it was reported by TSN’s Darren Dreger that the team is now listening to trade offers for the Russian. Moving on from Provorov would benefit the long-term health of the franchise and is something the team should do.
The Blue Jackets’ Trajectory Has Changed
Before we get into why the Blue Jackets should trade him, we’ve got to start with why they acquired him in the first place. A conversation that I had with fellow THW Blue Jackets’ writer Mark Scheig on a recent episode of the CBJ Union Junction Podcast reminded me of one thing I had forgotten about surrounding his acquisition: The Mike Babcock factor.
For the connection between the two, we have to go back to the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, when word on the street was that Babcock had wanted his then Toronto Maple Leafs management to draft the workhorse Russian defender over Mitch Marner with their first round selection. Then we skip ahead to June 2023 when, to paraphrase the great Bob Cole, “everything was happening” with Ohio’s hockey team. On Jun. 3, it was reported that the team intended to hire Mike Babcock as their next head coach. Only three days later on Jun. 6, the Blue Jackets pulled the trigger on a three-way trade to acquire the workhorse defender, Provorov. Coincidence?
Related: Blue Jackets Need Clear Development Plan for David Jiricek
Then Babcock allegedly did some shady stuff and resigned from the Blue Jackets. That sent the trajectory of the team in a completely different direction. With Babcock as head coach the goal was to contend for a playoff spot. Suddenly rookie head coach Pascal Vincent was thrust into the role and it seems like player development has become the primary goal.
To be frank, there is really no place for Ivan Provorov in an organization focused on developing young talent with a window of Stanley Cup contention three to five years away from opening. There’s a few reasons for that, factoring out the “character issues” that many would like to tag him with.
The Case For Trading Provorov
Before you jump down my throat, I’ll acknowledge that Provorov has been a lynchpin of the admittedly poor defense corps this season. With the multitude of injuries to top defender Zach Werenski, it’s probably been comforting for Vincent to have him there to fill the gap as the number one guy on the back end. However, he’s unlikely to be a long-term piece with the organization and so they should look to find something that can benefit them for the next five or even ten years if they can.
Now let’s talk about the practical case for trading Provorov. First off, there is no proof that he’s made the Blue Jackets a better defensive team. Through their first 47 games of 2022-23, the Blue Jackets allowed 184 goals which was tied for second-worst in the NHL. This season they’ve allowed 175 which is third-worst. The difference is negligible.
Then you look at his contract. He’s got one year left after this one, then he hits the unrestricted free agent market. As a 28 year old top-four defenseman who has shown the ability to fill the shoes of a “number one” defenseman, you’d better back up the Brinks truck because he’s going to be a very rich man. Look at all of the players the Blue Jackets have to re-sign in the next few years, you’ll see it’s unlikely they find the money to sign another big ticket contract for a veteran like Provorov.
While that short-term makes him expendable to Columbus, his contract length could make him invaluable to a contending team looking to add to their defensive stable. He’s already at a remarkably low cap-hit because of retention from the first trade – currently on the Blue Jackets’ books for $4.75 million for this season and next. If the team shaved another 50-percent off of that number, a contender could have him on their roster for two playoff runs at $2.375 million. It would at least be enough to recoup that first round pick that Columbus spent to acquire him in the first place.
You also have to factor in the prospects that Columbus has in the pipeline of left shot defenders like Denton Metaychuk and Stanislav Svozil. Do the Blue Jackets really want Provorov sucking up ice time that these guys will eventually could use next season as they strive to become the top-four NHLers that they’re projected to become? Probably not. Especially when you think about their window for Cup contention not being opened quite yet. The blue line is already logjammed enough. It’s time for management to free up some space and stop stunting their younger players’ growth.
Provorov was brought in as a stop-gap between the core of the present and the core of the future to make their blue line serviceable enough to make a run at the final wild card spot in the playoffs this season and next. Once Babcock resigned, the whole trajectory of the Blue Jackets shifted. Now it’s time the team shift their priorities and think about redistributing Provorov’s value into assets that can help them when they start making runs at the playoffs in three to five years.
