It’s the most wonderful time of the year — albeit maybe not for Buffalo Sabres’ fans, who probably aren’t feeling much holiday spirit while the team sits in seventh in the Atlantic Division. The Sabres have dealt with a plethora of problems all year, on both sides of the ice, up and down the lineup, and even from the front office and coaching staff. In a year with playoff expectations, the Sabres have fallen short in practically every facet of the game and sit comfortably out of a wild-card spot. With Christmas coming up, Buffalo fans have much to include on their wishlists.
Health
Health is first on the Christmas wishlist, which has inarguably been the Sabres’ biggest issue of the first 30-or-so games. The team is currently missing Jordan Greenway, Jeff Skinner, Zemgus Girgensons, and Jack Quinn. Greenway has played just 21 games this year, having missed a few games in late November before returning for two games and re-injuring himself, leaving him unplayable since Dec. 2. Skinner took a hard hit from Colorado Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon and has since been put on injured reserve, retroactively to Dec. 15. Girgensons hasn’t played since Nov. 24, sustaining a lower-body injury. Quinn has yet to play a game this season after rupturing his Achilles in late June. On top of that, Alex Tuch recently missed practice with what one can only assume is a reaggravation of the injury that kept him out of the lineup from Dec. 3rd to 13th.
These are just the current injuries, too. Tage Thompson missed three weeks in November and early December due to an upper-body injury. Zach Benson has missed a total of 10 games with various injuries, including a lower-body injury that held him out of action from Oct. 30 to Nov. 17. Devon Levi and Eric Comrie both missed pretty significant time earlier in the year, while Mattias Samuelsson, Rasmus Dahlin, and Henri Jokiharju have combined to miss eight games for the Sabres’ top four.
Hopefully, Santa brings a bit of health to the Sabres. Quinn is reportedly going to get back on the ice pretty soon, so things are already looking up. Should the team settle their ailments, the Sabres may be able to turn things around.
The Real Dylan Cozens
Last season, Dylan Cozens enjoyed a breakout campaign in which he potted 31 goals and 68 points, performing at a 0.84-point-per-game pace. This year, although he’s enjoyed a recent burst of offense, with five points in his last three games, he’s been a bit of a disappointment. Through 31 games, he’s got just six goals and 18 points, playing at barely over a half-point-per-game pace. He’s obviously not a bad player — even with that downtick in production he’s still a viable top-six forward — but it’s a bit saddening to see he hasn’t continued developing.
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The underlying statistics would suggest that there’s an element of Cozens being snakebitten, though, which is reassuring. Last season, he had an expected goals share (xGF%) of 50.04%, meaning that the Sabres controlled just over half of the expected goals when Cozens was on the ice. This season, his xGF% is 51.81% — a significant increase over last year; he should be theoretically getting more points as a proxy of better underlying statistics. This lack of production is probably due, to some extent, to the Sabres’ low on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%) relative to last season. The Sabres shot at a 9.81% clip last season when Cozens was on the ice. This year, their oiSH% with Cozens on the ice is 7.52%, the lowest since he’s slipped on a Sabres uniform. Something’s got to give, and a little bit of luck for Cozens in the New Year should be on Santa’s sleigh this Christmas.
Top-Six Performing Like the Top-Six Should
Even outside of Cozens, the top-six has been underperforming. Tage Thompson has just 16 points through 24 games after a 94-point season last year. Alex Tuch and Skinner, both of whom were above point-per-game last year, are well below that threshold thus far into their seasons. The three of them comprised what was unequivocally their best line in 2022-23, and they’ve been so subpar this season that they’ve been separated for most of the year. All three are sporting an xGF% of less than 50%, with Tuch and Skinner being particularly poor in that regard. Tuch, in particular, has been unacceptably bad there, boasting an xGF% of 46.77% despite having one season in his career below 51% up to this point. Let’s hope that Santa brings a jumpstart to the Sabres’ struggling stars.
New Coaching
After an embarrassing 9-4 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday, some fans might want a nicely wrapped, brand-new coach for Christmas. Hell, it might be most fans — they were caught chanting “Fire Don Granato” at the game.
Don’t get me wrong, Granato was a godsend to this organization when he first came over. He unlocked Thompson by putting him at a position that better suits his talent, got Skinner to play better than he’s ever played, and helped players develop with a ton of success. Without him, Rasmus Dahlin, Cozens, and obviously Thompson likely wouldn’t have turned into the players they are today.
At this point in time, though, the success has stagnated. He’s shown a couple of good signs this year — Casey Mittelstadt and JJ Peterka have successfully broken out into legitimate top-six talents under his rule this year. The team has struggled with injuries, and no changes have been made. The lineup decisions and player deployment have been suspect at best, and his goalie management has been outright abysmal.
Everyone saw the success that Bruce Boudreau brought to the Vancouver Canucks in his first year with the team, and he’s reportedly antsy to start coaching an NHL team again. I would imagine him to be a good fit for this Sabres team as well. He’s obviously capable of further developing the Sabres’ core — he was a key ingredient in why players like Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes are the players they are today and got the most out of then-youngsters Brock Boeser and Connor Garland. I can’t imagine a scenario in which he wouldn’t provide a spark to some of the struggling stars of last year — like Thompson and Cozens — while being able to get the most out of players like Peyton Krebs, Jack Quinn, and Victor Olofsson.
Another interesting name to consider is the newly available Jay Woodcroft. Considering his recent firing, unassuming hockey fans might take it that he was an unsuccessful coach. That couldn’t be further from the truth, though, even as far as this year goes. Where the Edmonton Oilers’ record at the time of his firing would indicate complete incompetence, they were a product of some nightmarish goaltending from Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell and bad puck luck, while their underlying statistics were some of the best around the NHL.
The Casey Mittelstadt from November
In November, Mittelstadt was easily the Sabres’ best player. The 25-year-old breakout player had 13 points in 14 games, including a five-game, seven-point streak. At the end of November, Mittelstadt had an xGF% of 53.13%, was fourth on the team in expected goals for per-60 minutes (xGF/60), and was third on the team in expected goals against per-60 minutes (xGA/60).
Flash forward to now, less than a month later, and Mittelstadt has more or less disappeared. Outside of the last three games, in which Mittelstadt has had a two-point and three-point affair, the former eighth-overall pick only had two points in seven December outings. His xGF% has dipped almost 3%, to 50.38%, indicating that he’s been completely caved in in December. He’s dropped to seventh on the Sabres in xGF/60 and 13th in xGA/60. His offensive game has still been there for the most part, at least in terms of underlying impacts, but his defensive output has fallen off a cliff.
A Trade
Last on the Sabres’ Christmas wishlist is a trade, something that desperately needs to happen if the ship is to be righted. Don Granato has (rightfully) earned himself a warm seat, but general manager Kevyn Adams needs to be held equally as responsible — if not more so — for the Sabres’ lack of success. His lack of moves has cost the team dearly. The scoring depth needs to be addressed, as does their top-four on defense. The only way to do so is via trade — standing pat has done nothing but prevent this team from reaching their expectations.
Sabres fans are rightfully growing tired of losing game after game, and although they’ve been outwardly calling for heads, their patience over the last few years warrants being put on the Nice List. Maybe Santa can restore a bit of balance to the Sabres in the New Year and return the Sabres the playoff aspirations that they had coming into 2023-24.
