It’s time for the final update of our Calder Trophy tracker for the 2024-25 NHL season. Last year, Connor Bedard took home the trophy as the NHL’s top rookie. Finishing second was Minnesota Wild defenseman Brock Faber, while New Jersey Devils defenseman Luke Hughes came in third.
Related: 5 Leading Candidates for the Jack Adams Award Halfway Through 2024-25
The race for the Calder has a clear top three/four this season before there’s a significant dropoff. But there’s quite the debate to be had about who should win the award, even with Lane Hutson’s emergence over the last month.
4. Matvei Michkov
There was plenty of hype for Matvei Michkov this offseason, and despite a bit of a lull during the dog days of this season, he’s lived up to the hype. Michkov has 24 goals and 59 points in 76 games, putting him on pace to finish with 25-plus goals and 60-plus points, and his underlying metrics look excellent for a 19-year-old rookie.
The Philadelphia Flyers are a solid five-on-five team, but it’s still impressive that Michkov has posted an expected goals share (xG%) of 53.22 percent through 76 games. It also seems like his game has improved a bit since the Flyers fired John Tortorella a couple of weeks ago; he has five points in four games since the Flyers moved on from Tortorella.
Michkov’s value has come offensively, which shouldn’t be a surprise; he has an offensive net rating of plus-7.3, which has improved significantly since earlier in the season. Overall, his game has been worth a net rating of plus-3.3. I don’t think he’ll end up as a finalist, but he will certainly get some top-three votes. He’s had an excellent rookie season.
3. Macklin Celebrini
Macklin Celebrini has been the best rookie in the NHL this season, so why has he moved down to third on our tracker? One reason is Hutson, but Celebrini missed time with an injury early on, and that’s probably hurt his chances at the award, as he’ll likely max out at 70 games.
Celebrini has 62 points in 66 games — a 77-point pace over 82 games. The offensive production is impressive, but that’s not what’s most impressive about what Celebrini has done as a rookie. His defensive impacts may not be anything special, but that’s more a product of a poor Sharks team. He’s already a well-polished two-way forward and has the tools to be a great defensive center for a long time.
Celebrini has played against tough competition and handled those minutes relatively well. His penalty differential is excellent, and he’s already shown high-end finishing ability. He probably would have been the Calder favorite had he played in 82 games or close to it, but it looks like Hutson is now the favorite.
2. Dustin Wolf
The Calgary Flames unexpectedly battled for a playoff spot all season, but it seems they’ve run out of gas. Still, Dustin Wolf has played a significant role in helping the Flames stay competitive, as he’s finally begun to make a name for himself in the NHL after years of dominating in the AHL.
Wolf has appeared in 50 games and has a 26-16-8 record to go along with a .910 save percentage. His underlying numbers are fantastic, as he has a sparkling .927 save percentage and an .855 high-danger save percentage at five-on-five. At all strengths, he has an .836 high-danger SV% and has saved 12.65 goals above expected.
For context’s sake, Wolf’s five-on-five SV% is seventh in the entire league among qualified goalies (min. 500 minutes played). He consistently posted overall save percentages of .920 or better in the AHL, and it’s finally beginning to translate in the NHL. The Flames played at a 98-point pace in games that Wolf started. That will get him top-three votes, and he deserves first-place votes, too.
1. Lane Hutson
Some fans on social media had fun poking at Hutson’s underlying metrics early in the season, but you certainly can’t make fun of those anymore. Hutson is far from a finished product, but you can see the vision, especially offensively. His offensive game has been worth a net rating of plus-13, which is outrageous. You’d expect that from a top-pair defender, so that’s where you can see the potential.
At the same time, Hutson hasn’t been great defensively, but he has improved as the season has progressed. He had a defensive net rating of minus-6.4 at our last Calder update, but that’s now up to minus-2.2. He’s also playing difficult minutes, as head coach Marty St. Louis is not keeping Hutson sheltered.
Hutson is first in rookie scoring, with 68 points in 74 games, though Celebrini has a slightly better point-per-game rate. He’s only improved as the season has progressed, and it’s helped the Montreal Canadiens rise into the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, which is theirs to lose.
Hutson Looks Like the Winner
Greg Wyshynski of ESPN surveyed NHL awards voters recently, and Hutson was the clear-cut favorite for the Calder. There’s certainly some recency bias in that, as Hutson did not play particularly well for the first month or two of the 2024-25 season. Whereas with Wolf, he’s been consistently great since the start of the season.
I don’t have a vote in this, so my opinion doesn’t matter, but I would vote for Wolf to win the Calder, with Hutson and Celebrini coming in second and third. Wolf has been more consistently impactful for the Flames since the start of the season than Hutson, but I do not doubt that Hutson will be the winner. And to be fair, he’s a deserving winner, too. But this vote should be closer than it’ll end up being because there was a truly fantastic crop of rookies this season.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Stat Cards
