It’s time for the first edition of the Calder Trophy tracker for the 2024-25 NHL season. Last year, Connor Bedard took home the trophy as the NHL’s top rookie. Finishing second was Minnesota Wild defenseman Brock Faber, while New Jersey Devils defenseman Luke Hughes came in third.
Related: 5 Leading Candidates for the Jack Adams Award Halfway Through 2024-25
The race for the Calder has a clear top three/four this season before there’s a significant dropoff. Even though there’s still half a season to go, we already have a firm idea of who will be in contention to be the NHL’s top rookie this season.
3. Matvei Michkov
There was plenty of hype for Matvei Michkov this offseason, and he’s lived up to it to begin 2024-25. Though his production has slowed a bit in recent weeks, he has 29 points in 40 games — a 60-point pace over 82 games.
The Philadelphia Flyers are a solid five-on-five team, but it’s still impressive that Michkov — a 19-year-old rookie — has posted an expected goals share (xG%) of 52.41 percent through the halfway point of the season.
Michkov’s value has come offensively, which shouldn’t be a surprise; he has an Offensive Net Rating of plus-1.8. Overall, his game has been worth a Net Rating of plus-1.7. He’s a clear-cut top-three candidate for the Calder and can move up the rankings as the season progresses.
2. Dustin Wolf
The Calgary Flames are hanging on in the playoff race and are neck-and-neck with the Vancouver Canucks. Dustin Wolf has played a significant role in helping the Flames stay competitive, as he’s finally begun to make a name for himself in the NHL after years of dominating in the AHL.
Wolf has appeared in 21 games and has a 13-6-2 record to go along with a .914 save percentage. His underlying numbers are fantastic, as he has a sparkling .943 save percentage and an .852 high-danger save percentage at five-on-five. At all strengths, he has an .829 high-danger SV% and has saved 5.31 goals above expected.
For context’s sake, Wolf’s five-on-five SV% is second in the entire league to Anthony Stolarz (min. 250 minutes played). He consistently posted overall save percentages of .920 or better in the AHL, and it’s finally starting to translate in the NHL. He should be a Calder finalist if he keeps this up and plays in enough games, especially if the Flames make the playoffs. He’s been that good.
1. Macklin Celebrini
This is an easy choice, but Macklin Celebrini has been the best rookie in the NHL this season. He missed time with an injury early on, but he should be the favorite for the Calder if he continues to play at the level he has.
Celebrini has 28 points in 32 games — a 72-point pace over 82 games. The offensive production is impressive, but that’s not what’s most impressive about what Celebrini has done as a rookie. Aside from so-so defensive numbers, which is not out of the norm for most rookies, he’s shined in most aspects of the game:
Celebrini has played against tough competition and handled those minutes relatively well. His penalty differential is excellent, and he’s already shown high-end finishing ability. We’ll see what the rest of the season holds for him, but the Calder Trophy is his to lose if he stays healthy.
Honorable Mention: Lane Hutson
I’m sure I’ll catch some heat from Montreal Canadiens fans for not having Lane Hutson in the top three, but there are a couple of reasons I don’t for the time being. Mostly, it’s simply because he hasn’t been better than the three previously mentioned players.
Hutson has been a beast offensively. His offensive game has been worth a Net Rating of plus-5.1, but he has struggled mightily defensively, with his defensive game being worth a Net Rating of minus-3.7. I’m not surprised he’s struggled defensively. He’s an undersized defenseman playing his first NHL season. That part of his game will come around in time, but it has been a problem to begin his career.
That’s not to say Hutson can’t crack the top three. There’s still half a season to play, but he hasn’t been better than Michkov, Wolf or Celebrini to this point. They’re the top three for this Calder class, with Hutson in the running and very much a candidate to surpass someone.
Those four players seem to be where the chase for the 2025 Calder ends, though. Maxim Tysplakov is fourth in rookie scoring with 19 points in 41 games, but he’s also 26, so I’m not sure how much love he’ll get in Calder voting.
Other rookies I expected to be in the Calder race have had slow starts to their 2024-25 seasons. Logan Stankoven has 19 points in 38 games, while Cutter Gauthier has 18 points in 41 contests. They’d have to go on a tear the rest of the way to challenge Hutson, Michkov, Wolf and Celebrini. So the Calder candidates seem pretty cut and dry already.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Stat Cards
