It’s about as much of a foregone conclusion as possible that the Canadiens will take a forward with their first, first-round pick at the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. However, they’ll have several options, based on how the first four picks ahead of them will realistically go. It could theoretically come down to the 6-foot-4 Cayden Lindstrom (210 pounds) or 5-foot-11 Berkly Catton (170 pounds), if some combination of forwards Macklin Celebrini, Ivan Demidov and Tij Iginla and top-projected-defenseman Artyom Levshunov go before.
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And, if Lindstrom does go instead, hell, even if he doesn’t, there’s also the 6-foot-3 Beckett Sennecke, who’s recently entered the picture, with whom Catton may have to contend. So, this isn’t purely a referendum on whether or not the Canadiens favour late-risers. That’s already been asked and answered when they chose Juraj Slafkovsky over Shane Wright first overall in 2022. It’s about size, in case there was any doubt.
No 5-Foot-9 Players Here
Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes has famously said, “There’s not a 5-foot-9 hockey player that scares me, but 22 of them would scare me (from ‘Stu Cowan: Canadiens GM Kent Hughes puts his plan into action,’ Montreal Gazette, July 8, 2022). It’s an indication size is a consideration for the Canadiens, as it should be. However just to what degree Canadiens fans will find out this summer.
The generally accepted philosophy is to go with size and skill over just skill. However, both Sennecke and Lindstrom carry a certain level of risk that Catton doesn’t… beyond the fact he’s small, yet curiously still a few inches taller than Cole Caufield (5-foot-8). It goes to show smaller high picks can be smart moves
On top of Sennecke being a late riser, Lindstrom’s been limited to 32 games this season due to several upper-body injuries, admittedly returning to play in four of the Medicine Hat Tigers’ five playoff games. In those 32 games, in the Western Hockey League, he scored 27 goals and 19 assists. In comparison, in 68 games with the WHL’s Spokane Chiefs, Catton scored 54 goals and 62 assists, sustained production that should speak for itself.
There obviously aren’t guarantees the success translates to the NHL (in either case), but there would be a case Catton is the safer pick between the two, were it not for his size, again despite the fact he’s taller than Caufield, the 5-foot-9 hypothetical player Hughes mentioned in the quote above or even Filip Mesar (5-foot-10), the player Hughes himself took at 25 picks after Slafkovsky in 2022.
Slafkovsky and Reinbacher Each Listed at 6-foot-3
Now, to be fair, there’s no clear-cut case of hypocrisy here. There should be no controversy. The Canadiens probably just approached the 26th pick differently than they did No. 1 overall in 2022. That’s understandable. You have visions of selecting a player who projects as close to a star player as possible at the top of the draft. The deeper you go, the more likely you are to accept potential issues.
However, two years after the Canadiens took Slafkovsky and one year after they took David Reinbacher, each listed at 6-foot-3 and no stranger to potential issues themselves based on preliminary scouting, the Habs shouldn’t feel the need to go out of the way or get in their own way to go down that road again.
In the case of Reinbacher, the Canadiens arguably sought to fill a need instead of drafting the best player available. Largely because of that decision, they’re in this position where they must logically select a forward this time around. They face a clear lack of elite talent up front and there are so many potential NHL players in the prospect pipeline on defense at this point (Reinbacher, Lane Hutson, Jayden Struble, Adam Engstrom, William Trudeau, Logan Mailloux and Bogdan Konyushkov, a list that doesn’t include the young defensemen who have for all intents and purposes graduated to the NHL already).
This isn’t (necessarily) a vote for Catton over Lindstrom (or Sennecke). It’s simply an argument Catton shouldn’t be overlooked simply because of his size. It should come down to the better player between the two, that is, if neither one is taken in the Top 4. Out of sheer convenience, this piece also ignores potential x-factors like Cole Eiserman and Konsta Helenius, the latter of whom, for whatever it’s worth, climbed into Craig Button’s Top 5.
Bob McKenzie, who surveys scouts to rank the top prospects, meanwhile has two defensemen in the Top 4. He ranks Levshunov directly behind Anton Silayev at No. 3. It begs the question, can the Canadiens afford not to take Levshunov if he somehow falls into their laps?
Yes, they can, for the reason(s) just mentioned. Many might see him as the best player available in such an instance. And, typically, even if they don’t fit into your plans, you can always use them as trade capital later. However, the discrepancy between Levshunov and whomever up front isn’t so great the Habs should turn their backs on taking a projected-top-tier forward, them effectively having their pick of the litter past Celebrini and Demidov.
Size Kills… at Least It Has the Canadiens
So, it does truly become about the forward who fits best with what Hughes and company are trying to build. And, while icing a team of 5-foot-9 players should scare him, so should icing a team exclusively made up of 6-foot-3 ones. Josh Anderson, who is 6-foot-3, at a cap hit of $5.5 million for the next three seasons, is an example of what can go wrong when you overvalue size.
Furthermore, based on Anderson’s untradeable contract, it’s not like you can just replace him with someone better who’s just as big in the lineup. His size, for better or worse, is staying in the Canadiens lineup for the foreseeable future. That gives the Habs 10 forwards on the current roster who are 6-foot-1 or taller. Four defensemen are 6-foot-2 or taller.
Ultimately, as alluded to earlier, Catton isn’t actually that small, making the issue more so about Lindstrom’s size than the former’s lack thereof. The Canadiens aren’t as much at risk of looking over Catton than being unable to look past Lindstrom. That isn’t to say Catton will end up being the better player, only that they must look at the whole (not necessarily big) picture.
To a degree, it goes without saying, but the fact none of the team’s first picks from 2006-2018 panned out with the Habs proves it’s been an issue in the past. Literally not one of those players ended up being below 6-feet.
The two tallest, Jarred Tinordi (2010) and Michael McCarron (2013) at 6-foot-6 each, ended up among the biggest disappointments of the bunch, all due respect to them and the fact they’ve each played over 200 NHL games at this point. That’s just not what anyone envisioned when the Canadiens used 22nd and 25th-overall picks on them. Their respective scouting reports from that time admittedly emphasized their size, but also their potential to become a dominant physical force. Sound familiar?
Granted, at fifth overall, the Habs would be in a better position to draft a complete hockey player. Lindstrom does project as that, but not completely complete. Literally the only thing listed in Catton’s “Improvements to Make” section in his scouting report at The Hockey Writers is “filling out his frame a bit (will come with age),” which, despite being a single bullet point, says a lot about to where teams minds tend to go. Hopefully it’s not the focal point of the Canadiens’ come June 28 in Las Vegas.
