Six points separate six teams in the race for the second Eastern Conference wild-card spot, and, as Montreal Canadiens management had hoped, the Habs are right “in the mix.” After Saturday night’s huge win over the Atlantic Division-leading Florida Panthers, the Canadiens are 32-27-7, with 71 points, just one back of the wild-card New York Rangers, who have played one more game.
So, with exactly one month left in the season, the Canadiens literally find themselves in charge of their own destiny. If they keep winning, they’re in. It’s as simple as that… other than the fact there are five other teams with whom they must contend, some of whom head to head. Here’s the full breakdown:
New York Rangers
- Record: 33-28-6
- Home: 16-14-3 (eight games left)
- Road: 17-14-3 (seven)
- Back-to-backs left: three
- Last 10: 5-3-2
- Record against remaining opponents: 10-13
- Remaining schedule strength (per Tankathon.com): .560
- Odds of making it (per MoneyPuck.com): 64.9%
The best thing the Rangers have got going for them is the fact they’re the incumbents, in that they’re holding down a wild-card spot right now. However, with exception to the Boston Bruins, they’ve played the most games of everyone on this list (67). It’s not a huge disadvantage, but, with the Canadiens down a single point (one game in hand) and the Columbus Blue Jackets down just two (one game in hand too), their margin of error is incredibly slim.
The Rangers are thankfully long past their 4-15 stretch that ended the 2024 calendar year. However, they’re also not the same powerhouse that started the season 12-4-1, literally. Active on the trade market, presumably to turn things around from their early-season swoon, they dealt away the likes of Jacob Trouba, Kaapo Kakko and Ryan Lindgren. They’ve brought in J.T. Miller, all in separate trades, which says a lot, namely how dissatisfied general manager Chris Drury was with his team.
While Miller has been hugely successful in his second go-around as a Ranger, with seven goals and 18 points in 17 games so far, it may not be enough. Their lack of games against teams in the wild-card race (just one against the New York Islanders on April 10) could work against them in their bid to create separation between them and the competition.
Columbus Blue Jackets
- Record: 31-27-8
- Home: 20-8-4 (nine)
- Road: 11-19-4 (seven)
- Back-to-backs left: four
- Last 10: 5-5
- Record against remaining opponents: 9-8-3
- Remaining schedule strength: .564
- Odds of making it: 10.5%
It’s probably no coincidence that after ex-Columbus Blue Jackets forward Patrik Laine ill-advisedly called them out ahead of their game against the Habs on Dec. 23, they went 13-4-1 to become serious playoff contenders. However, the fact they had been right outside of the playoffs at the time is a testament to how they were able to rally together in the wake of the tragic loss of their best player in Johnny Gaudreau and his brother last summer.
Related: Canadiens Must Exercise Caution with Laine in Wake of Latest Injury
An underwhelming roster on paper, the Blue Jackets have proven a lot of analysts wrong up to this point. So, it’s hard to count them out altogether. However, their singular acquisition of Luke Kunin at the trade deadline poses serious questions as to how they’ll fare down the stretch. They’re 1-3 so far and 1-5 in their last six after having lost two immediately before the deadline. Furthermore, their relatively tough remaining schedule doesn’t instill much hope from the outside looking in.
Detroit Red Wings
- Record: 31-29-6
- Home: 17-15-3 (six)
- Road: 14-14-3 (10)
- Back-to-backs left: three
- Last 10: 3-7
- Record against remaining opponents: 7-17-1
- Remaining schedule strength: .605
- Odds of making it: 5.1%
Speaking of tough schedules, no team on this list has it worse than the Detroit Red Wings. They lead the league in terms of their strength of schedule remaining. Of their 16 games left to play, 10 are on the road, and 12 are against teams currently in playoff spots. The other four are against teams currently in the thick of their own wild-card races, including the Canadiens and Boston Bruins on this list. So, there aren’t any gimmes left for them.
That might work to the Wings’ advantage in the sense they shouldn’t fall in the trap of taking anyone for granted. However, the post-Todd McLellan hiring surge in the standings has worn off. Since the team came back from the 4 Nations Face-Off, they’re 3-7-1. So, they seemingly haven’t started playing supposed “playoff” hockey quite yet. You’d think it would be about time, considering they haven’t made the postseason since 2016. Look for the streak to continue.
Boston Bruins
- Record: 30-30-8
- Home: 19-12-5 (five)
- Road: 11-18-3 (nine)
- Back-to-backs left: two
- Last 10: 3-6-1
- Record against remaining opponents: 10-7-1
- Remaining schedule strength: .528
- Odds of making it : 2%
Ignore the 2% odds of making it listed above. The Bruins would have had a decent shot to make it based on their relatively favourable schedule left, had they not effectively thrown in the towel at the deadline by dealing defenseman Brandon Carlo and forwards Brad Marchand and Trent Frederic.
While pieces obviously came back in each of those trades, the returns were more of the forward-looking variety, as the Bruins put their record-setting 2022-23 season completely in the rear-view. Their 2-5 record since before the deadline speaks to the uphill battle they face moving forward. They’re not out of it yet, but it looks like they will be soon.
New York Islanders
- Record: 29-28-8
- Home: 15-13-3 (ten)
- Road: 14-15-5 (seven)
- Back-to-backs left: two
- Last 10: 4-5-1
- Record against remaining opponents: 12-10-4
- Remaining schedule strength: .572
- Odds of making it: 10%
Ditto for the New York Islanders.
The Islanders played the fewest games of anyone on this list (65) and can conceivably leapfrog the Bruins (68) with ease, being just two points back. However, they’ve still got to win those games in hand. Even if they were to win the two they hold relative to the wild-card Rangers, they’d still be two points back. Because the Rangers hold the regulation-win tiebreaker over the Isles (and everyone else with 30 compared to 23), even a two-point disparity can prove incredibly hard to overcome.
Thankfully, the Isles have a few things going for them. One of their remaining games is against the Rangers (April 10) and their overall schedule down the stretch is decent, with just two sets of back-to-backs left (the lowest of any team here), not to mention a list-high 10 home games. However, that again plays into them having played the fewest games. At just 29-28-8, they’re also playing just .508 hockey with three straight losses. So, the games they need to win? They haven’t exactly been winning them.
Montreal Canadiens
- Record: 32-27-7
- Home: 17-12-4 (eight)
- Road: 15-15-3 (eight)
- Back-to-backs left: three
- Last 10: 7-1-2
- Record against remaining opponents: 13-6-1
- Remaining schedule strength: .547
- Odds of making it : 18.7%
Consider the following: The Canadiens are the hottest team on this list with a 7-1-2 record since they returned from the 4 Nations Face-Off. They have one of the objectively easiest schedules left, versus teams against whom they’ve got a 13-6-1 record so far this season. Seeing as they’ve got their fates in their hands, as previously mentioned, it kind of seems as though the 18.7% chance of making the playoffs should be significantly higher.
Of course, anything can happen. Remember, the Canadiens are only in this position because they suffered through a 1-7-1 stretch just before the 4 Nations Face-Off, playing under similar must-win circumstances. So, all anyone can say is the Habs have been playing like a playoff team since returning to action. If they keep it up, they’ll most certainly make it.
