Canadiens Have Reason to Stay Optimistic for Game 7 vs. Sabres

While this wasn’t the outcome Montreal Canadiens had hoped for, they can find comfort in the fact their 8-3 Game 6 loss to the Buffalo Sabres represented yet another lopsided battle in this ongoing war. There will obviously be a winner-take-all Game 7 on Monday. They can also do so for the following five reasons:

5. Canadiens Won Game 5

It’s true that the team that wins Game 5, which the Canadiens did, go on to win the series 79.8% of the time. Honestly, you can probably throw that stat out the window in a one-off affair that can realistically go either way (in lopsided fashion too), based on how each game has played out in this second-round series. It works both ways, though.

The Canadiens and their fans can do themselves a solid by forgetting all that went wrong in Game 6 and focusing instead on what went right in Game 5. Even if they lost by a wider margin in Game 6, tying team records for most goals and most power-play goals allowed in a single playoff game in the process, none of that matters.

Most goals allowed in a playoff game on home ice – #Canadiens franchise history:
8- Tonight in Gm6 of their 2026 Eastern 2nd Round series vs BUF
8- Gm5 of 1973 Stanley Cup Final vs CHI
8- Gm6 of 2002 Eastern CSF vs CAR
7- Gm1 of 1987 Adams DSF vs QUE
6- Fourteen occurrences tied

— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) May 17, 2026

The last time they allowed eight in a game, it was in 2002 in Game 6 of their second-round series against the Carolina Hurricanes, a disastrous series for all kinds of reasons. The way it ended, in an 8-2 shellacking was the probably the one that most fans remember. This one was significantly different in that the Habs still had a shot at coming back late-ish, to the point head coach Martin St. Louis felt comfortable pulling his goalie, before the Sabres iced it with an empty-net goal and a meaningless power-play one (that tied the aforementioned record).

What is also different is that this time around the Canadiens have a chance at redemption, whereas that last loss against the Hurricanes eliminated them. As their effort in Game 5 against the Sabres proved, they are more than capable of seizing the opportunity, having overcome 1-0, 2-1, and 3-2 deficits before running away with the contest. And, while they will be entering hostile territory for Game 7, Game 5 was on the road as well, just like Game 2, which they also won.

4. Canadiens Have Been Here Before

In fact, circumstances are eerily similar to how things went down against the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1. Obviously, the Canadiens ultimately won out in dramatic fashion in Game 7 on the road after having missed an opportunity to close things out at home. The same reasoning as to why they should have felt confident heading into that one applies here, too.

The Canadiens are simply a better road team than home team. Looking past how they should feel confident in their chances in Buffalo in general though, they can look to their experience, having won Game 7 against the Lightning in Tampa a few weeks ago, as something they’re capable of replicating.

Granted, they shouldn’t replicate their effort level, when they recorded a team-record zero shots in the second period, but that’s something on which they can definitely build as the youngest team in the NHL. While the Sabres are slightly older, the Canadiens have more experience in at least that one way, which should prove invaluable, with the former side last playing in a Game 7 (and losing to the Philadelphia Flyers) in the first round in 2011.

Needless to say, there isn’t much any of the current Sabres can take away from that experience. Only one of their players, Luke Schenn, was even in the NHL then, and, while he has two Stanley Cups (with the Lightning in 2020 and 2021) and a Game 7 win to his credit (last year with the Winnipeg Jets), as a 36-year-old depth defensive defenseman, who’s only dressed for two games so far this postseason, him playing would arguably be to the Canadiens’ advantage.

Only a few Sabres who are projected to actually play have won a Game 7 in their careers (Ryan McLeod, Alex Tuch). In comparison, just about all the Canadiens who will take the ice on Monday have. Take from that what you will. While that might be something into which some may feel you can read too much, the player who arguably matters the most is the only with an actual Game 7 win on his official record, and he obviously plays for the Habs.

3. Jakub Dobes

Some may say it’s not about how the Canadiens won Game 7 against the Lightning, but that they did. They’d only be half-right. In relying on goalie Jakub Dobes, who has rebounded with a win following every loss this postseason, in that game against the Bolts, they should have the utmost confidence in his abilities to see this one through, as he let in a single goal on 29 shots.

Granted, as previously alluded to, anything can happen in a one-off, but it’s hard to believe head coach Lindy Ruff has as much confidence in his goaltender as St. Louis has in his, based on the two goalies’ respective track records. Whether the Sabres goalie in question ends up being Alex Lyon or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, it’s six in one hand and half a dozen in the other. The doubt on the part of Ruff and Sabres fans everywhere should apply regardless of whoever gets the net.

2. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Assume it’s Luukkonen, and that’s a fairly safe assumption, based on how he impressively won Game 6, coming in after Lyon gave up three goals on four shots. You’re still talking about a goalie the Sabres have pulled once against the Canadiens in Game 5 (and once against the Boston Bruins).

While Luukkonen should be their “guy,” based on his development in the Sabres system up to this point, he has failed to seize the opportunity to take the No. 1 job with any kind of lasting success from year to year. Case in point, the Sabres still had to rely on a journeyman goalie in Lyon to get them through Round 1. And, while, yes, Luukkonen can rise to the occasion with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove, there’s little other than the slightest amount of recency bias that should scare the Canadiens about facing him, especially under current circumstances. They’ve gotten to him once. They can certainly get to him again. He’s beatable.

1. Cole Caufield and Ivan Demidov Have Broken the Ice

Much has been made of Cole Caufield having failed to score at even strength this postseason, at least until the aforementioned Game 5, when he and the Canadiens pumped Luukkonen for five. Lyon gave up a sixth to Ivan Demidov in relief, the rookie’s first-ever playoff goal.

Demidov obviously contributed to Lyon’s early exit in Game 6 with his second, and, while he has yet to score against Luukkonen, it’s worth noting the regular-season rookie scoring leader is now leading all rookies in playoff scoring too. Demidov was arguably the player the Canadiens most needed to step up to secure a series win against the Lightning. That they did without him reaching the scoresheet and that he’s now potentially going full throttle is a dangerous proposition for the Sabres, especially with the Habs’ top line now contributing consistently.

Obviously, nothing is in the bag. The way the Canadiens were leading 3-1 in the first period against the Sabres in Game 6, it was easy to envision them running away with it instead of letting it slip away. However, there are many good reasons to believe they will rebound.

What’s done is done. The Canadiens need to ask themselves if, prior to this series, they would have taken a Game 7 situation instead of a best-four-out-of-seven affair, because that’s what they now face. Chances are good they would have, because, on any given night, they’ve proven themselves capable of beating just about anyone in the NHL this past season.

Over the course of the series, the Canadiens have proven themselves capable of hanging with and beating the Sabres too, not that there was much of a doubt. These are two teams who split the season series and finished within a few points of one another in the standings. The Sabres may have ended the season ahead of the Habs as Atlantic Division champions, but everyone will more likely remember who comes out of the division in the postseason instead.

No one should remember Game 6, either… least of all the Canadiens.