Looks can be deceiving, especially in the direction of the Montreal Canadiens. They’re just two points out of the second Eastern Conference wild-card, pointing to the potential for a playoff appearance in 2024, but, while fans may hope against all hope they make it in the end, they also know better.
Related: Canadiens Still Have a Lot to Prove as Legit 2024 Playoff Contenders
The Canadiens have a long way to go before they’re playoff-ready. However, by the same token, they’ve come a long way since everyone suffered through a last-place 2021-22 season. For example, they’re a respectable 11-11-3 on the season, and technically one point closer to a spot than they were at this exact point last season.
One point may not seem like much, but the 2018-19 Canadiens did miss the playoffs by two. So, acknowledging every point matters, the Habs are moving up in the standings, even by the smallest of margins (especially since they also had one more win at 12-11-2 on Dec. 5, 2022).
Also for the glass-half-full types, this was around the point last season’s Canadiens began to drop off. Facing the easiest portion of their schedule, there’s a good chance they at least keep pace with the competition until after the Christmas break, which would mean more points in their favor. However, considering it’s their infamous holiday road trip, let’s not get that into the weeds regarding that one argument specifically. Here are four more the Habs are on their way, slowly but surely:
4. Canadiens in Line for All-Star Consideration
At the start of this rebuild, during that 2021-22 season, analysts were literally talking about depth-defenseman Chris Wideman to be considered for an All-Star Game spot. Two seasons later, Wideman, albeit in part due to injury, isn’t even in the team’s top six.
On top of that, you’ve got a defenseman in Mike Matheson, who, with 18 points in 25 games, actually deserves consideration. The fact he’s unlikely to be named to the mid-season classic, and it will probably come down to Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki, is further proof the Canadiens are trending in the right direction, especially with the latter two being as young as they are (24 and 23).
3. Development of Canadiens Prospects
Even if you look past Caufield, who’s begun to establish himself as a legitimate star, the Canadiens have stocked their cupboards with a lot of very good prospects. True, no one really knows how the likes of Lane Hutson will pan out, but, if you look back to just prior to 2021-22, the Habs prospect pool has improved by leaps and bounds.
Juraj Slafkovsky, the team’s 2022 first-overall pick, tops the latter list, as he continues to find his footing in this league. And, while his development is admittedly going far from smoothly, he is progressing, including up the lineup with more ice time (15:05 compared to 12:13 last season) and a spot with Caufield and Suzuki on the top line, at least for now.
In fact, all the team’s prospects are one year older and more experienced. True, time takes the most credit there, but, as long as you trust the process, fans just need to be patient, as the team’s stars of tomorrow are closer to making a difference on the ice for the Habs with each passing day.
All on his own, Slafkovsky may not be the strongest indication the rebuild is on its way. However, as one part of the team’s future? Things could be far worse. The fact that the Canadiens are where they are in the standings the way things started this season on the injury front is a further testament to that effect.
2. Canadiens Injuries Yet Again
When Kirby Dach suffered a season-ending injury two games into 2023-24, everyone feared the worst. They feared for his health and the season as a whole. They also feared for the Habs, as it looked like the start of a third straight injury-riddled season, all of which the ensuing weeks only served to confirm as justifiable.
One by one, Canadiens fell to the injury bug once again, with no apparent end in sight, even with management having acknowledged the issue at the end of last season and seemingly having taken drastic steps to address it. That’s the bad news.
The good news is the Canadiens are still hanging in there. Granted, there’s every reason in the world to believe they’ll eventually fade in the race for a playoff spot this season. However, there’s every reason to believe, assuming the Habs can finally solve this health crisis of theirs, they’ll stay competitive eventually, especially with such a big projected piece of the team in Dach back in action, hopefully to start 2024-25.
1. Canadiens at Five-on-Five
Ultimately, as analytics freelancer Jason Paul shows, the Canadiens are making inroads to achieving lasting success on the ice, especially on offense. Remember, that was what general manager Kent Hughes pointed to as his focus, when he first took the job, with the team’s current underlying five-on-five analytics looking good as we speak (at least up front).
On defense, not so much. However, if you choose to look at the unsustainably high save percentage as justification for committing to Sam Montembeault (a second-ranked .950, per MoneyPuck.com), no one will blame you. It’s not necessarily what you need for long-term success, i.e., overreliance on goaltending, but at least they’re not paying him in excess of $10 million per season, right?
Overall, the Canadiens struggle to consistently keep up with the NHL’s elite teams. There’s no denying that, but, at even strength, there’s a lot to like about their makeup. It’s when they’re not at even strength that they face major issues… when they’re not taking an eighth-ranked 4.52 penalties per 60 minutes anyway. Those are the areas in which the Habs truly need to improve, and, whether it’s via numbers or the eye test, you don’t need to be an analyst to recognize that much.
So, struggling on special teams as they are, the Canadiens aren’t special by any stretch. They’re incredibly average by just about every definition of the term, especially at 11-11-3. However, if you look at where they were, you can see the potential for the future. Based on the development of their stars and younger players and the injuries they’ve sustained, it’s not necessarily that far off.