The Montreal Canadiens just made Sam Montembeault a rich man (at least relatively speaking). The hope is he makes them forget about their hole in net. If he succeeds, the $3.15 million cap hit over the next three seasons will have to be considered a huge coup, but there’s also a chance it comes back to bite them.
Canadiens Going with Montembeault as No. 1?
To be fair, Montembeault has established himself as a legitimate NHL goalie over the last two seasons. Going back to his time with the Florida Panthers, the team that drafted him in 2015, that was far from certain, even after the now-27-year-old had gotten claimed off waivers by ex-general manager Marc Bergevin and he played the most games of any other Canadiens goalie that 2021-22 season. He played that much out of injuries and necessity, not merit.
The question current-Canadiens GM Kent Hughes must be asking is, is Montembeault a starter or a backup? Because $3.15 million is an absolutely fantastic cap hit for a No. 1, but for a No. 2? Well, insert any meme here of someone getting hot under the collar as they unfasten their tie.
All due respect to Montembeault, there are doubts he has what it takes. He’s posted good numbers this season (5-3-1 with a 2.73 goals-against average, GAA, and .910 save percentage, SV%). However, it’s a fairly small sample size. While he played well last season, his overall numbers didn’t exactly reflect it (16-19-3 with a 3.42 GAA and .901 SV%). It’s only when you dive deeper into stats like goals saved above expected that those unfamiliar with his body of work outside of Montreal can start to see his potential.
Montembeault’s admirably at it again, placing 20th in the league so far when it comes to that specific stat. However, even assuming he remains an analytics darling, unless he can keep the numbers in his official stat line up this season (again, small sample size and all), the Canadiens and their fans will have to keep wondering if they just hitched their wagon to a horse who may look good on paper, but doesn’t have the legs to get them to where they need to go.
Montembeault vs. Allen
You just need to look to teammate Jake Allen as an example of a goalie the Canadiens signed to a cap hit that seemed reasonable at the time, but didn’t stay that way. With the dust having settled, following Montembeault’s emergence as a credible option in net, the Habs are effectively left holding the bag, having to pay an in-decline backup an average of $3.85 million per season for the next two seasons.
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There is the possibility the Canadiens intend on platooning the duo in and out of the net up until Allen becomes an unrestricted free agent (trading third-stringer Cayden Primeau). In such an instance, the $7 million combined cap hit is still incredibly reasonable to cover a team’s goaltending. However, get real: In an ideal world, the Habs trade Allen, a 33-year-old goalies whose numbers have dropped each season he’s played with them, instead. That makes Montembeault the starter in principle, especially with him now under contract for two seasons past the point Allen’s deal expires. Everything taken into account, there is just no logical way the Canadiens re-sign Allen under the status quo.
So, there is definitely an element of risk involved, then. If Montembeault stumbles the Canadiens have another backup making north of $3 million per on their hands. On the plus side, they did give him a lower cap hit than Allen, pointing to Hughes having learned a lesson to a degree.
Risk vs. Reward Extending Montembeault Now
Nevertheless, it arguably made more sense to wait until much later in the season to see with greater certainty what they have in Montembeault. There is a scenario where, with Allen’s contract being fairly untradable, the Habs prefer to walk away and let the former hit free agency, going that route themselves, at least eventually. Players like Igor Shesterkin, Juuse Saros and Linus Ullmark are each scheduled to become UFAs alongside Allen in 2025. You’d think either one of them at $7 or $8 million per, especially as the Canadiens’ window to contend opens, is superior to Montembeault at $3.15.
However, the hope is Montembeault continues to impress. In such an instance, if the Canadiens had waited to re-sign him, yeah, they’d have had to pony up more money. Keep in mind though: A Montembeault on the incline at a $5 million hit (for example) is still superior to any of the above options. So, the Canadiens wouldn’t have lost much waiting.
With that in mind, if Montembeault indeed proves to be far from a flash in the pan, this deal becomes incredible. Hughes will have gotten a goalie with (theoretical at this point) No. 1 upside under contract for presumably the prime years of his career at a fraction of the cost one almost legally should. It could amount to larceny, even much more than Hughes’ Cole Caufield extension projects to be a bargain down the road. So, where there’s a risk, there’s also a potential reward. And it’s a big one.
Hughes didn’t necessarily make a mistake here. He certainly could have, but he more accurately made a gamble. He bet on Montembeault. It’s up to Montembeault to repay him in kind. Word is he’s got the means now. He’s at least got the skill and potential to. Time for him to put his money where Hughes’ mouth is.
