The Montreal Canadiens have been here before. Exactly a month into the 2023-24 NHL season, the Habs find themselves in a tie for the second Eastern Conference wild-card spot (Tampa Bay Lightning), just like in 2022-23.
Related: Top 3 Signs Canadiens Will Compete for Playoff Spot in 2023-24
Last season, it was for all intents and purposes a mirror image. The Canadiens, Florida Panthers and Detroit Red Wings each had 17 points in 15 games played in a bid to lay claim to the third Atlantic Division spot. Then the Habs started to fade. So, Habs fans should know full well, as impressive as the Canadiens have been, especially in their latest victory, a 3-2 overtime win over the Boston Bruins on Nov. 11 at home, nothing is guaranteed.
Canadiens Face Obstacles to 2024 Playoff Spot
Another shoe, or, in the case of last year’s Canadiens and the injuries they sustained, multiple shoes can drop at any time. So, the Habs have a whole lot more to prove over an extended period of time before anyone can say with a straight face that they are a playoff team. After all, with five months left in the season, those same playoff obstacles from the start of the season still exist. They’re not going away either.
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The injuries are still piling up, with Kirby Dach hurt. That to a degree is a point in the Canadiens’ favor. After all, if they could beat the Bruins like they did without Dach, imagine if he were healthy. Okay. Done. The Habs will likely be even better once Dach returns. Point granted. In the here and now though, he’s injured and will be all season. For the Canadiens to make the playoffs, they have to overcome his absence… consistently. It sucks, but that’s how it is.
No one should take away from their latest win. It was hard-fought. It was thrilling. It was… literally the Canadiens’ first win over the Bruins since Nov. 5, 2019, probably made all the more significant by the fact the Bruins are the reigning, record-setting Presidents’ Trophy champions and at the top of the Eastern Conference standings right now.
Canadiens Have Been Undeniably Impressive… on Occasion
In many ways, it was the Canadiens’ most impressive game of the season. That title had arguably fallen on the shoulders of their 3-2 shootout loss to the Stanley Cup-champion Vegas Golden Knights on Oct. 30. The Knights of course are currently at the very top of the NHL standings, which further proves on any given night the Habs can theoretically compete against the best the league has to offer.
Head coach Martin St. Louis went so far as to suggest it was the “best game we’ve played from start to finish since I took the job,” back in early 2022. A few weeks after that loss, it has serious competition, even if only due to the fact the Canadiens actually beat the Bruins.
However, even if the Canadiens hadn’t… and, for example, lost in a shootout again instead of Kaiden Guhle scoring the game-winning goal in overtime? It still would have been a moral victory. The only problem is, for the Habs to be considered legitimate playoff contenders, the time for moral victories has to be over.
They, to their credit, need to win the games in which they put forth the effort they did against the Bruins. However, they need two win them regularly and build off them… instead of going on a four-game losing streak like they did after what had been the best game they played under St. Louis just a few weeks ago, many of those of losses of the embarrassing variety.
Making of a 2024 Playoff Contender
For the Canadiens to be legit playoff contenders, they need to not get regularly outshot. They need to be able to take advantage and win when they face the opposing team’s backup, which seems to be an inordinate amount of times this season. Yet they’ve won only three of nine games under those circumstances.
The Canadiens also need to be able to win by more than one goal. Of their seven victories, only one qualifies, when they won by two against the Buffalo Sabres on Oct. 23 and goalie Jake Allen stood on his head to steal the game. These are not exactly ingredients in a recipe for sustainable success.
In their defense, unlike at the start of last season, the Canadiens are largely getting by with average (instead of incredible) goaltending. Allen’s stats have dropped back down to earth following that contest, while Samuel Montembeault and Cayden Primeau have been impressive in their own ways, but with mediocre .905 and .903 save percentages respectively.
It goes to show the Canadiens are making progress on a few fronts year over year. That in turn goes to show things are progressing overall in terms of the rebuild. Just because they currently find themselves in a playoff spot doesn’t mean they will six months, one month or even a week from now or that general manager Kent Hughes has to bend over backwards to keep them there. Let it all play out as it should.
If the Canadiens are the playoff contenders the current standings suggest, they have the perfect opportunity to prove it. They face the Bruins again on Saturday, Nov. 18 on the road. This next week should go a long way to determining just how good they really are, with three more home games in between, a game against the Golden Knights coincidentally set for two days beforehand.
All alone, this week won’t make or break the season. However, it will establish realistic expectations for how everything should play out. To a degree, the Canadiens have exceeded expectations so far. Whether this season ends up like the last one or they forge a new path forward, fans won’t have to wait long to find out.
If it’s a true mirror image relative to how last season turned out, things will go in the opposite direction. Either way, it’s up to the Canadiens themselves. They’re the ones who have to look at their reflections and determine if they’ve been good enough to make it. So far, they have, but just barely.
