Maybe “scare” isn’t the right word, but there are definitely teams currently in an Eastern Conference playoff spot who shouldn’t want to face the surging Montreal Canadiens. Of course, a playoff spot is far from guaranteed. At the time this is being written, the Habs own just a 44.6% chance of making them (per MoneyPuck). However, where there are odds, there are teams and their fanbases rooting against them, because, however much smaller the Habs’ chances are of making it deep (14% to Round 2, for example), there’s still a chance.
And, no, this is not the notorious Jim Carrey meme of his Dumb and Dumber character ignorantly saying “So, you’re telling me there’s a chance” all over again, in response to the one-in-a-million answer his love interest gives him when asked how likely it is that they get together. There are many example of teams, including the Canadiens, pulling off improbable upsets, some in the not-too-distant past that should still resonate in the minds of many.
Related: 5 Reasons the Canadiens Will Make the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs
So, the notion that the Canadiens accomplish something similar is much more than the pipedream of a rabid fanbase that’s been given life following a post-4 Nations Face-Off 8-1-3 run. It’s a realistic nightmare that has the serious propensity to keep opposing fanbases up at night. Here are the top three:
3) Toronto Maple Leafs
No, the Toronto Maple Leafs aren’t the No. 1 team here, maybe to the shock of some. After all, the Canadiens infamously overcame a 3-1 first-round deficit, as huge underdogs no less, to beat the heavily favoured Leafs in the first round in 2021 (en route to a Stanley Cup Final appearance). The reasoning is simple: You can’t count on lightning striking twice.
The Maple Leafs are admittedly a particular case, though. For Leafs fans, with a single first-round victory since the 2004-05 lockout, there’s enough anxiety to go around regardless of the team they end up facing.
The Canadiens are only a special case in the sense many Maple Leafs players would probably relish the opportunity to get their revenge after their embarrassing defeat four years ago, the core five of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares and Morgan Rielly having remained intact since then (perhaps to a fault).
For the record, six Canadiens remain (Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Josh Anderson, Brendan Gallagher, Joel Armia and Jake Evans). They’d obviously similarly relish the opportunity to send their historic rivals spiraling as an organization into oblivion. Still, on paper (admittedly just like in 2021), the Maple Leafs are significantly stronger. You’d think they’re also mentally stronger, especially after having finally reached the second round in 2023.
Right?
2) Florida Panthers
The Florida Panthers could see a lot of themselves in the Canadiens. After all, the Panthers snuck into the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs with 92 points, only to beat the record-setting Boston Bruins and reach the Final (eventually losing 4-1 to the Vegas Golden Knights).
Obviously, the Panthers ended up returning to the Final the following season and winning it all (which the Canadiens didn’t do in 2022, ending up in last place overall). The bigger point is, the Panthers have played a lot of hockey the last few years. That could catch up to them eventually.
Put aside the fact the Canadiens have played the Panthers well so far this season for a second. While the Habs are 2-0 against them with a home-and-home series still to come, their last win came against a lineup significantly shorthanded due to injury and the 20-game suspension of Aaron Ekblad. Needless to say, the Panthers will be a very different, stronger team in Round 1.
Should the Panthers hold onto the top spot in the Atlantic Division (and the Canadiens pull into the first wild-card spot, they’ll be heavily favoured, no doubt. However, the Panthers should know from personal experience how a team with nothing to lose can prove to be incredibly dangerous.
1) Washington Capitals
In truth, the Canadiens probably have a lot more in common with last year’s Washington Capitals than the Panthers. The Capitals earned the last wild-card spot with 91 points as an average team that may have gotten swept by the New York Rangers. However, they’ve obviously since put it together completely as the frontrunners for the Presidents’ Trophy.
Based on how well the Canadiens have played over recent stretches, including against the Capitals on Jan. 10 in one of their best performances of the season, it’s far from out of the question that the Habs see the Caps’ success as attainable in the not-too-distant future. The Habs have effectively played like someone in the Capitals’ league for a while now, hinting at the success the Habs have had as being sustainable. And, while facing the hypothetically best team in the league in Round 1 would be daunting, it’s worth considering the following:
The Canadiens beat the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Capitals in the first round in 2010, when the match-up was characterized by a 33-point disparity in the standings. Obviously, the roster turnover has been significant. Alexander Ovechkin is the only remaining Cap from that series defeat, and, despite being on the verge of catching Wayne Gretzky for the all-time goal-scoring title, he’s not as scary as he once was. No one on the Capitals really is. They’re effective as a unit. Sound familiar?
Carey Price is technically the only remaining Canadiens player from that series. Obviously, he must no longer be scary to the Capitals for vastly different reasons, as he’s currently retired for all intents and purposes. However, as intimidating in the net as Price must have been at his peak, it makes no difference. Everyone should know by now Sam Montembeault isn’t Carey Price, anyway. The question is, does he have any Jaroslav Halak in him?
Halak famously backstopped the Canadiens to their four wins in the series (with Price making two appearances). His performance those playoffs forced the team to make a tough decision between the two goalies the following offseason. They ultimately went with Price, and justifiably so it turns out, but Halak had a long, successful, albeit relatively statistically average career ahead of him, last appearing with the Rangers in 2022-23.
To channel Jonah Hill’s character in Superbad for a second, “Montembeault could be that mistake,” because they don’t him to be an all-world goalie. If you disregard how well the Habs have played overall, they’d just need him to stand on his head for two weeks. And that’s in effect what he’s done by and large since he returned from the 4 Nations Face-Off.
Furthermore, because so much time has passed, it wouldn’t be lightning striking twice, like it would against the Maple Leafs. It would be history repeating itself. There’s a difference in that for lightning to metaphorically strike twice circumstances have to be incredibly similar. For history to repeat, you’re really just looking at the same outcome coming to pass. And anyone who suggests the Canadiens can’t beat the Capitals in a seven-game series needs a history lesson. Believe you me, all of Montreal remembers. And all the Canadiens themselves need to do is believe (on top of playing out of their minds for two weeks).
It can happen. Just ask Ovechkin. And, if the Canadiens do end up facing the Capitals, oh, will he ever be asked about it. There’s a 100% chance of that, at least.
