The Anaheim Ducks recently re-signed goaltender Lukas Dostal to a five-year extension worth $6.5 million annually, and it got some Edmonton Oilers fans wondering about their future between the pipes, specifically, what it would mean for Stuart Skinner‘s next contract. Fans are split down the middle in terms of what to do with Skinner heading into the 2025-26 season, but either way, the Oilers will be taking him into the upcoming campaign. However, Dostal’s new contract should not be viewed as comparable to Skinner’s.
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Some pundits think the two goaltenders are comparable, and considering Skinner’s playoff success over the last couple of seasons, comparing the two was inevitable, but looking deeper into the stats and analytics, Dostal is worlds better than Skinner.
Skinner has the fourth-worst goals-saved-above-expected (GSAx) in the playoffs over the last three seasons, with a 0.03. While Dostal hasn’t been able to play in the postseason due to the Ducks being in a rebuild and not being able to climb into a playoff spot, his performance has been much better than Skinner’s.
Fans will immediately turn to the save percentage (SV%) and goals-against-average (GAA) as their first indicators of how good a goaltender is, but the fact of the matter is, both of those statistics are inflated or deflated depending on how strong the team in front of them is. In Dostal’s case, they look decent but aren’t great because of the team in front of him. In Skinner’s case, he looks average, but the team in front of him makes his stats look better.
During the 2024-25 regular season, Skinner had a GSAx of 7, while Dostal had a GSAx of 22.49. When looking at goals-saved-above-average (GSAA), Dostal had a 4.9, while Skinner had a -6.21. Every advanced stat heavily favours Dostal, but for some reason, popular pundits continue to turn to SV% and GAA, which are team-inflated.
In this comparison, it is all about the situation each goaltender is in. If you swap the two goaltenders right now, Skinner would struggle and have all of his stats drop, while Dostal would likely be pushing toward a Vezina Trophy. Yes, that’s how big the difference is.
This season, things are changing for both teams. The Oilers are bringing in a new goalie coach, the Ducks have made some moves to show they want to push for a playoff spot this season, and both teams look to be in a mode where they want to make the playoffs. That should give fans a better idea of how different these two goaltenders are and how much better of a goaltender Dostal is.
Skinner Could Bounce Back & Earn Decent Extension
Now, this isn’t to sit here and bash Skinner, because backstopping a team to back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances is impressive, but there is some fine-tuning to be done to his game. The point of this article was to shut down the idea that Dostal and Skinner are comparable in any way. They’re not. Whether you compare their situations, their playoff experiences, or the team in front of them, there is nothing similar that justifies comparing the two right now.
Skinner’s struggles against the Los Angeles Kings in round one were an issue, but he bounced back when he went back in the net and helped them get to where they needed to be after a couple of bad games.
Realistically, this will be a season of testing for Skinner. The Oilers could look to extend him if he bounces back under a new goalie coach and finds some consistency, but he won’t get anything close to what Dostal got on his new contract.
If I had to guess what a new deal would look like, it’s safe to say a bridge deal is what’s coming for Skinner. He needs to prove himself, and if he is able to show signs of growth, the Oilers could reward him with a short-term extension worth around $2.5 million annually.
To compare him to Dostal is silly and shouldn’t be done again.
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Data courtesy of Evolving-Hockey.
