The Hart Trophy race was an interesting one this season. Leon Draisaitl has been the favorite and remains the favorite with the regular season concluded, but this is a tightly contested race with four legitimate candidates who could win the award as the NHL’s MVP for 2024-25.
5. Jack Eichel
Maybe it’s because he plays on the West Coast, but Jack Eichel quietly had one of the best seasons of his career, totaling 28 goals and 94 points in 77 games for the Vegas Golden Knights. He was the team’s most efficient five-on-five scorer, averaging 2.45 points per 60 minutes, but he was also their most impactful player overall.
Eichel finished the season with a net rating of plus-18.8, ranked in the top ten among all forwards league-wide. Not only was he one of the best offensive players in the NHL, but he was also a stout defensive forward, finishing with a defensive net rating of plus-3.1. He won’t win a Selke, but he’s a complete player who’s helped the Golden Knights maintain Stanley Cup contender status. I’d be surprised if he were a Hart finalist, but he will get votes.
4. Connor Hellebuyck
I’ve always had a tough time deciding whether goalies belong in the Hart race, especially in today’s NHL. Igor Shesterkin had an outrageous season in 2021-22, but he appeared in only 53 games when he posted a .935 save percentage. Had he played 65-70 games, that would’ve probably put him in the Hart convo, but goalies just don’t play that often anymore.
Related: 2024-25 Selke Trophy Tracker: Reinhart Should Be the Favorite as Season Ends
Connor Hellebuyck did break that trend this season, though. He made 63 starts and won 47 of them while posting a .925 save percentage. He saved 39.6 goals above expected, the latter of which ranked first in the NHL among all qualified goaltenders by a comfortable margin.
Wins above replacement (WAR) isn’t as strong a metric as in baseball (yet), but it’s probably worth mentioning here. Hellebuyck finished with a WAR of 6.6 through 63 starts, meaning he was worth six additional wins for the Jets, translating to 12 extra points in the standings. He’s been that important for the Jets and deserves some Hart consideration. It wouldn’t shock me if he ends up in the top three, though I’m not sure that’s a lock.
3. Nathan MacKinnon
The Colorado Avalanche are a Cup favorite in the West because of their high-end talent, starting with Nathan MacKinnon. He had another fantastic regular season, finishing with 32 goals and 116 points in 79 games. He totaled a net rating of plus-24, ranked third among all forwards league-wide, and was the Avalanche’s most efficient five-on-five scorer.
MacKinnon has been a Hart finalist and has won the award before. I don’t think he’s the favorite to win it again, but he probably has decent odds to end up as a finalist at the very least. There aren’t many players better than him in the NHL.
2. Nikita Kucherov
Does it feel like Nikita Kucherov never gets the proper love in these award conversations? He once again put together an excellent season, finishing with 37 goals and 121 points in 78 games. He’s been one of the most efficient five-on-five scorers in the league, and all his underlying numbers suggest he should be a Hart Trophy contender.
Kucherov totaled a net rating of plus-24.3, ranked second in the NHL among forwards. The Tampa Bay Lightning are once again Stanley Cup contenders after general manager Julien BriseBois did well retooling the team. Andrei Vasilevskiy emerging as a Vezina contender is part of the reason, but Kucherov playing at a Hart level is another.
1. Leon Draisaitl
Those Edmonton Oilers sure are lucky, aren’t they? Not only was McDavid a potential Hart finalist before injuries limited him to 67 games, but Leon Draisaitl had a career season that could net him his second Hart Trophy. He finished with 52 goals and 106 points in 71 games — a 122-point pace over 82 games.
Draisaitl hasn’t always been an elite play driver, but he has been one this season. He’s been slightly better than MacKinnon and Kucherov by whichever metric you use. His net rating of plus-25.5 is first among forwards league-wide, so he should be the favorite to win the Hart Trophy.
A Tightly Contested Race
There’s a pretty clear top four for the Hart Trophy this season, but what the order is remains to be seen. Hellebuyck will get plenty of Hart love, but will it be enough to be a finalist? Kucherov and MacKinnon have had excellent seasons and are worthy of being Hart finalists, too, so there doesn’t seem to be a wrong answer.
But ultimately, Draisaitl has been the most valuable player in the NHL this season, in my opinion. He should win the Hart, but it’s tightly contested. There are four legitimate candidates for it, and they all have strong cases.
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