Spring is in the air, and with that, the playoffs are right around the corner. It’s the time of year when most of the playoff spots are locked up, with the exception of the wild-card spots, and the Dallas Stars have been above those spots for months. It’s no surprise, considering they were Stanley Cup contenders heading into the season.
It’s been an up-and-down ride through 70 games, but it’s been mostly up since the calendar turned to 2025. The Stars are 23-8-3 since Jan. 1 and 7-2-2 in March. That’s exactly what you want: to be playing your best hockey before the post-season starts. That being said, the Stars are 1-2-2 against playoff teams since March 8, and it can be argued that they didn’t really deserve points in those two overtime losses. Specifically, the lack of consistent offensive production has been concerning. Even in the wins, it’s been hard to come by.
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Overall, the Stars are obviously a very good team, and maybe this is all a silly conversation. However, I don’t know if you knew this, but when you only play playoff teams in the playoffs. Talk about obvious. It’s a small sample size, but this close to the postseason opener, they’ve been shakier than they would like.
No Offense Through 40 Minutes
Just so we’re on the same page, the five games we talked about earlier was a 5-4 loss to the Edmonton Oilers, a 4-1 loss to the Winnipeg Jets, a 4-3 overtime loss to the Colorado Avalanche, a 3-2 overtime loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning, and a 3-0 win over the Minnesota Wild. We all know the Cup aspirations that the four teams they lost to have, and quite frankly, the Wild are not at that same level.
In all four losses, there was one striking similarity. Against the Oilers, they were down 5-1 going into the third period and outshot 17-15 before scoring three goals in the final 20 minutes and losing 5-4. In Winnipeg, they were losing 4-0 until they got on the board with four minutes left. In Colorado, they again were losing heading into the final period, this time 3-1, and were being outshot 16-10. Allowing only 16 shots in 40 minutes against the Avalanche is impressive, but getting only 10 shots on net is a problem. They scored two goals in the final six minutes to force overtime before losing 4-3, thanks to Cale Makar’s heroics in the extra period. Against the Lightning, they were down 2-0 before scoring two in the second and getting the extra point in overtime yet again.
In those four games, they were outscored in the first 40 minutes 13-4 and scored first in two of those games, which is its own weird little stat. The Stars have been very good at scoring early and often throughout the season, and this little blip was out of character for what this team has morphed into.
Heading into last weekend, this topic was front and center. Last Saturday, they had a classic “get=right game” against the Philadelphia Flyers, and after jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the first period, the wheels fell off a little bit, and they had to win in overtime. At the end of 40 minutes, they were tied 2-2 and had only 10 shots on goal. The Flyers have been free-falling as of late, and this was a game where it felt like they needed a blowout. They didn’t get it.
Why Does This Stand Out?
Admittedly, this does feel pretty reactionary. However, it’s who they lost to and how they lost that makes all of this stand out, even if the sample size is relatively small. Let’s look at both sides of this. Against the Central Division this season, the Stars are 14-5-2. Pretty darn good; great, even. Yet, as great as that is, they only have two teams to worry about.
They are 1-1-1 against the Avalanche, with 11 goals scored and 13 goals against. In those three games, their power-play percentage (PP%) is a sparkling 44.4%, but the penalty kill percentage (PK%) is a dull 76.9%. In addition, they average 25 shots per game, while allowing 34.33. Yes, it’s just three games against a single opponent. But this opponent is more than likely the team they are going to be playing in the first round.
Now, on to Winnipeg. In three games against the Jets, they are 1-2-0, with five goals scored and nine goals allowed. Their PP% is 0.0 and their PK% is 75. The shot averages look a little better, averaging 29.67 shots for, and 24.67 against.
In order to go to a third-straight Western Conference Final, the Stars will most likely have to beat both of these teams. The Jets were the first team in the West to clinch a playoff spot and are eight points ahead in the division. While the Avalanche are only four points up on the Wild, it feels like they will be the team that finishes third, which will make them the Stars first round opponent.
Where the Stars have the upper hand, is recent playoff success. Dallas beat Colorado last year in the second round, and the Jets haven’t had postseason success since 2018.
Monday is More Like it
The final game of the five we laid out was 3-0 win over the Wild on Monday night, and while the Wild aren’t as strong as they were in the first half of the season, they are still a playoff team that poses a challenge.
The Stars were outshot 32-29, but between Jake Oettinger’s shutout and the Stars getting 29 shots of their own, it worked out just fine.
Is This a Cause for Concern?
When my dad was posed with an either/or question, he’d often say “yes” as in, both. To this question, I say “yes” in the same way he did. I guess I could just say both. On the one hand, those four losses were really tough to watch, and two of them were against teams they likely have to face in a month when the “second season” starts. In the playoffs, the ice shrinks and offense is hard to come by. The way the Stars’ offense disappeared in those games is absolutely a cause for concern, and it’s not even the playoffs yet. Consequently, when the scoring does dry up, the goaltender needs to step up and make a save or two. That didn’t happen either.
On the other hand, the Stars have five players with 25-plus goals, four players with 63-plus points, and perhaps the deepest forward unit in the conference. They are sixth in the NHL in goals for and third in goals against. The Jets are ahead of them in both of those categories but that doesn’t discount what the Stars have done. The one category the Stars have the upper hand in over the Avalanche and Jets, is their penalty killing, which is first in the NHL at 85%.
Big picture, like we spoke about earlier, the Stars have been the second best team in the NHL since Jan. 1, with a 23-8-3 record. Sure, the Jets are 22-8-3, but better is better. The Stars are an incredibly good team, and should be consider amongst the Stanley Cup contenders in the West. That five game stretch has to stand out because of who they were playing. That doesn’t take away from the fact they are still one of the best teams in the NHL.
