The New York Islanders have been one of the bigger surprises in the NHL this season. They sit in third place in the Metropolitan Division with 44 points and are just three points behind the Carolina Hurricanes for first place. I’m not sure many people predicted them to be in a playoff spot at the NHL Christmas break, but here we are.
Ilya Sorokin and David Rittich have provided the Islanders with fantastic goaltending. That’s one reason they’re in the playoff race, but they’ve changed up their game offensively and are playing with much more pace than they did before Mathieu Darche took over as general manager. Can they sustain their success and hold onto a playoff spot?
Islanders’ Change in Style
The Islanders have not exactly had a reputation for playing uptempo, fast hockey over the last half-decade or so. That was especially true when Lou Lamoriello was GM and Barry Trotz was head coach, but it worked. The Islanders were one goal away from a trip to the Stanley Cup Final in 2021, but their play soon fell off after that.
They tried shifting to a faster, more uptempo style under previous coach Lane Lambert, but that didn’t work, leading to Lamoriello firing Lambert and replacing him with Patrick Roy. Roy immediately introduced a more downtempo, defensive structure to counter the team’s high-event style under Lambert.
Related: Barzal & Heineman Are Keeping the Islanders Afloat in the Eastern Conference
In 2023-24, when Roy took over for Lambert midseason, the Islanders went 20-12-1 and secured third place in the Metro. They improved at five-on-five under Roy, but it was more reminiscent of how the team played under Trotz. They averaged 2.50 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five while allowing only 2.40. It was a low-event style of hockey that helped them get into the playoffs in a muddled Metro.
Fast forward to today, and the Islanders are not playing that way at all. While they aren’t lighting the world on fire offensively, they’re playing a quicker, more uptempo rush game that more and more teams are relying on in the NHL today. The Islanders are averaging 2.58 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five, though they’re giving up that and then some defensively.
I wouldn’t say Roy has ever had a reputation as an offensive-minded coach, but he’s sure shown a willingness to adjust in his time with the Islanders. They have the personnel to play a bit faster, too. Bo Horvat is one of the more underrated centers in the NHL, and the addition of Jonathan Drouin has added more pace and skill to their top six.
Matthew Schaefer has been a revelation as a rookie, and I don’t think it can be understated how important he’s been to the Islanders in adjusting their game. You need defensemen who can break out of the defensive zone effectively to play a more uptempo style of hockey. Without Schaefer, the Islanders would not have much of that on their blue line.
The shift in style has certainly made them more entertaining to watch this season, but it doesn’t come without some concerns.
One Drawback of the Islanders Shifting Their Style
One drawback of the Islanders shifting to a more uptempo style of hockey is that they’re giving up plenty of quality chances the other way. They’re allowing 2.89 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, the fourth-worst rate in the NHL. Only the Anaheim Ducks, Boston Bruins and Vancouver Canucks have allowed more dangerous looks.
So how are the Islanders doing it? Sorokin has been a Vezina-level goaltender this season. For all the talk of Logan Thompson being the frontrunner for the Vezina, and he should be in the conversation, Sorokin has as good an argument as Thompson.
Per MoneyPuck, Sorokin has saved 22.8 goals above expected at the Christmas break, the best mark in the NHL. Even Rittich has stopped 13.2 goals above expected, making him one of the better backup netminders in the NHL. A combined 36 goals saved above expected is tremendous, and it probably buys the team a couple of extra wins that they don’t deserve.
Per Evolving Hockey, Sorokin’s play has been worth a wins above replacement (WAR) of 2.9 this season, while Rittich has a WAR of 1.6. They’ve provided an additional 4.5 wins above a replacement-level goalie, so they’ve surely helped the Islanders get some wins that they probably haven’t deserved.
The issue with the Islanders playing this style of hockey is that it could become taxing on their goalies as the season progresses. If they don’t tighten up defensively, they could be one Sorokin slump away from falling off in an Eastern Conference where every team is at NHL .500 or better.
However, there’s clearly something working for Sorokin because he’s having his best season since 2022-23, when he stopped a whopping 38.7 goals above expected. The Islanders may be giving up a ton of chances at five-on-five, but Sorokin and Rittich aren’t having trouble seeing the puck. We’ll see if that’s a sustainable formula since there’s still over half the season to play, but Sorokin is an elite goalie for a reason.
Islanders May Not Be Able to Sustain This
The Islanders have been a fun watch, but I’m a bit skeptical their uptempo style will be sustainable if they don’t tighten up defensively. That doesn’t mean Roy has to return to playing how he did when he took over for Lambert midway through the 2023-24 season, but we’ve seen this formula fall apart for teams in past seasons. Team X struggles at five-on-five, but overachieves due to goaltending, only to fall off later on once goaltending declines because they’re giving up too many quality chances.
Still, there’s a template here for the Islanders moving beyond the 2025-26 season. Darche seems to have a blueprint of how he wants the team to play moving forward, and even if they drop off during the second half of the season, they have something to build on. They just need to find more players who fit the style of hockey Darche wants so that they aren’t so reliant on Sorokin as much as they are.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, except where noted
