The offseason has gone from July to August and it’s officially the quiet part of the summer. With all the moves out of the way and the rosters all but set, it’s when fans start looking forward to the season ahead. The New York Islanders are in an interesting spot as they return a similar roster with players that don’t appear to have a lot of upside or downside. Appear is the key word since players will inevitably exceed expectations or regress.
Related: Islanders Need a Blockbuster Trade to Become Serious Contenders
As a team with a low ceiling, the Islanders can’t afford to see some players struggle this season. A bad season from a few players will set this team back and have them out of the playoffs or worse, near the bottom of the standings. Last season, a handful of underachievers nearly left them out of the playoffs and they were bailed out by the top-end talent, which leads to who on the Islanders must continue to play at a high level.
Brock Nelson
Brock Nelson having a rough season would be a tough pill for the Islanders to swallow both on and off the ice. For starters, the offense would fall apart and unless this team can win multiple low-scoring games (good luck winning 2-1 or 1-0 every night in a league where goals are up), it will cause them to collapse this season. Then comes the issue the Islanders must deal with as sellers at the trade deadline with a roster that doesn’t have many valuable trade chips and they would be forced to move players for underwhelming returns.
Even in his 30s, Nelson is playing at a high level and arguably the best hockey of his career. He scored 37 goals in the 2021-22 season, 36 in 2022-23, and 34 last season. By all means, the second-line center is the Islanders’ top goal scorer and when needed, he can create scoring chances for his linemates as a reliable passer. They rely on Nelson to drive the offense from the second line and allow them to have a potent top six.
If Nelson struggles, it will hurt the offense but also his value at the trade deadline. The six-year deal he signed in the 2019 offseason makes him a free agent after the 2024-25 season and at the moment, the most valuable player on the trade block for this team. It’s hard seeing Nelson traded even if the Islanders aren’t contenders as he’ll likely finish his career with the team he started it with but if he’s moved, he must be playing at a high level for the Islanders to receive a reasonable return.
Mathew Barzal
Last season was the breakout that was much anticipated out of Mathew Barzal. He’s proved throughout his career that he can be an elite skater and everything clicked for him last season as he scored 23 goals and 57 assists and fueled the offense from the top line.
So what if everything doesn’t click for Barzal? All it takes is for one attribute to go missing from his skillsets and suddenly he’s back to being a one-dimensional player. On top of that, the Islanders are in trouble if that happens. They have a top-heavy roster carried by their top four forwards and number one defenseman and when those players struggle everything falls apart. So, the Islanders’ success goes hand in hand with Barzal.
Barzal proved he could be a versatile top-line skater, beating defenses with speed, offensive zone discipline, quick passes, and an accurate shot. It’s what made him the Islanders’ All-Star selection last season. The expectation is that he builds off the big season and as a result, the Islanders can’t afford for him to revert to the player he was beforehand.
Noah Dobson
All the offense from the defensive unit is courtesy of Noah Dobson. He scored 10 goals and 60 assists last season while the rest of the defense scored only 23 goals and 137 assists. It’s not just a last-season thing either. Dobson has scored 10 goals or more in each of the past three seasons. If he struggles, the Islanders look hapless at the point and will lack a scoring presence on their blue line who can open up the offense.
A step forward from Dobson changes the dynamics of the Islanders. If he’s a Norris Trophy finalist and becomes both one of the best scoring defensemen and continues to round out his game on the defensive end of the ice, this team will take the league by surprise. It will also drive up Dobson’s contract price by the end of the season, which makes this season a big bet by both him and the front office. It also makes him the wild card for the Islanders as a rough season sets the entire team back but conversely, he can lead this team to one of the league’s best records as well.
Semyon Varlamov
Entering last season, Ilya Sorokin was a Vezina Trophy finalist and couldn’t afford to have a regression season. He did and the Islanders nearly missed the playoffs because of it. Patrick Roy knew he had to pull his elite goaltender to allow the team to make a playoff push and it was a tough but necessary decision. The expectation is that Sorokin returns to form this season. He might not be a Vezina Trophy finalist but at least he’ll be an elite goaltender the Islanders can rely on.
So, why is Semyon Varlamov the goaltender to watch this season? The Islanders learned firsthand that they need a reliable backup and can’t solely rely on Sorokin. If Varlamov, who is 36 years old, can’t be one, the goaltending position will be the weak link that causes the Islanders to fall apart.
Other Players They Can’t Afford Regression From
The defense trio of Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Scott Mayfield must rebound after battling injuries and struggling last season. Pelech and Pulock particularly must prove that they can play the second pair role and keep the unit from falling apart. The trio of veterans struggling again will leave the defense in shambles and one that opponents can easily pick apart.
On the offensive end, Kyle Palmieri must remain a dynamic scorer and a complementary winger on the Nelson line. Along with Nelson, Barzal, and Bo Horvat, Palmieri carried the offense as a shooter on the wing and the Islanders must see him remain a viable threat in the offensive zone.
Is there a player who you think the Islanders can’t afford to see have a rough season? Let us know in the comments section below!
