Looking at the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ overtime loss to the New York Islanders on Saturday, it’s easy to be frustrated with the end of the game. However, perhaps disbelief is the better option. With just over a minute left in overtime, Joseph Woll had the puck cleanly in his glove and didn’t freeze it. At that point, Max Domi, Morgan Rielly, and Bobby McMann were completely gassed. They needed a whistle. They needed air. They needed a change.
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Domi didn’t help matters either. He had Rielly open behind him and could’ve backed the play off, bought time, settled things down. Instead, he pushed forward, rushed it, and turned the puck over. Head coach Craig Berube said afterward that Woll probably should have frozen the puck. At the same time, he acknowledged that these moments happen quickly and that instinct takes over.
That sequence mattered. This wasn’t just any game. It was a four-point Eastern Conference matchup against a team they’re directly chasing. Toronto turned what could’ve been a two-point gain over the Islanders into a one-point loss and gifted New York two points in the process. Those are the kinds of swings that don’t show up right away, but come back to haunt you in March.
The Standings Aren’t Lying to the Maple Leafs
At some point, the Maple Leafs will have to be honest with themselves: odds say the team probably doesn’t make the playoffs. They’re only two points back of the Pittsburgh Penguins for the second wild-card spot. But that view is misleading. In reality, nine teams are scrapping for two positions. Every night, someone gets points, and in a league that hands out three points in far too many games, deficits are stubborn things to overcome.
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The Atlantic Division’s picture is even bleaker. Right now, Toronto is five points behind the Montreal Canadiens to finish third in the division and eight points out of first. That’s after going six games without a regulation loss.
Think about that. The Maple Leafs have taken 10 of a possible 12 points in their last six games and haven’t meaningfully moved up in the standings. They are still last in the division and 14th in the conference. That’s not panic — that’s math.
Rielly Struggling, Stecher Emerging
The Islanders’ game also wasn’t a good night for Morgan Rielly. He was on the ice for all four goals against and none for. Over the last two weeks, despite the team going 4-0-2, Rielly has two assists and is minus-seven. After a strong late-November run where he looked like himself again, he has four assists and is minus-14 in his last 12 games. That’s not a comment anymore; it’s a trend.
Meanwhile, Troy Stecher continues to be one of the quiet surprises of the season. Picked up off waivers in mid-November, he looked like a temporary fix, expected to become a depth defender holding things together while bodies healed. Instead, he’s averaging over 20 minutes a night, has two goals and six points in 17 games, and is a plus-12.
The question, of course, is sustainability. There’s a reason this is his seventh NHL stop. But if — and it’s a big if — Toronto ever gets healthy on the back end, the defensive balance suddenly looks better than it has in years. That’s assuming they ever get there.
Chris Tanev has now suffered three separate injuries in 11 games. There’s a chance he might be out for the season. Brandon Carlo’s timeline is unclear. Jake McCabe didn’t finish against the Islanders. Instead of icing Tanev, McCabe, and Carlo, the Maple Leafs are staring at combinations involving Simon Benoit, Philippe Myers, Matt Benning, Henry Thrun, and Dakota Mermis. They’re NHL players. They’re just not those NHL players. And that gap matters.
Why Maple Leafs Still Aren’t Dead
There are enough reasons why the Maple Leafs won’t make the postseason. But there’s one reason they might, and he’s still wearing number 34. Auston Matthews looks like Auston Matthews again. He nearly had a second straight hat trick Saturday and has six goals and ten points in his last four games. When he’s healthy, he can carry a team — we’ve seen it before.
Quietly, the depth has shown up. Eight Maple Leafs have 20 or more points. Only the Colorado Avalanche have more players with 20 or more points. Matthew Knies is nearly a point-per-game. McMann is pacing for more than 20 goals. Nicholas Robertson has eight points in eight games. Domi is engaged again, especially when he’s helping Matthews get the puck.
The Easton Cowan–Nicolas Roy–Robertson line has stabilized the third line. John Tavares, Knies, and Matias Maccelli have held their own. If William Nylander returns and things slot together properly, Toronto suddenly has three real lines.
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Scoring hasn’t been the issue. Outscoring your mistakes can work — if the mistakes don’t pile up faster than the goals. There’s still a chance for the team to make the playoffs, even if the math looks rather dismissive.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]