As fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs wait to hear word on the status of contract negotiations between Auston Matthews and the team, the consensus thinking seems to be that a deal will get done. The Maple Leafs want max term and Matthews probably doesn’t, so the two sides are bound to meet in the middle.
If Matthews signs a four or five-year deal, it’s not ideal for the organization, but it’s certainly not going to create a scenario where the sky is falling. In fact, there is a silver lining here where there might actually be a long-term benefit to going a shorter term.
The Team Has Flexibility
Sure, signing Matthews to an eight-year deal is going to keep the cap hit down a little lower than it might otherwise be, but by how much? Regardless of four years, five years, or eight years, Matthews potentially projects to become the highest-paid player in the NHL. While an elite talent, there are some questions about whether or not he should hold that spot.
A four or five-year team actually allows the Maple Leafs a better opportunity to reassess when the cap is in a place where the team can afford to revisit his deal. At that time, he could prove to be everything that the organization would hope for in a player making more than anyone else. The Leafs will then pay him accordingly. Or, he could wilt under the pressure, score a little less and become someone the fans, media, and executives see as a contract mistake. If the latter, the Leafs are stuck with that deal for three or four more seasons than they might like. Going shorter-term means moving on if it’s proven the team might have overpaid.
Matthews Can Set a New Precedent in the NHL
Currently, players are winning the lottery if they sign a massive eight-year deal and for big bucks. It’s the way things have gone for years now and the assumption is that it’s what players want. But, as the cap barely rises this season and then trends to take a big jump next season and beyond, there will be a movement to sign shorter-term deals and maximize leverage, getting a bigger piece of the pie. Right now, and because so much media attention surrounds his negotiations, it sounds like Matthews is the stand-alone player considering two deals instead of one in the same time span. He’s not and he won’t be as the cap continues to rise.
Being first is always risky because you get hit the most while carving a path for others. But, if Matthews signs a four-year deal, others will follow suit. Sooner than later, his deal won’t seem like an outlier. He won’t be the highest-paid player for terribly long, he won’t be the only one looking to use his leverage, and he’ll effectively change the way contracts are negotiated by the league’s elite. That’s not a bad thing for Toronto.
Matthews Can Level The Playing Field
If Matthews signs a short-term deal for huge money, he’ll be criticized by fans who think he’s not being loyal. Some will say he’s holding the team back from building a strong foundation around him. But, will fans continue to say that if Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Elias Lindholm, Sebastian Aho, Connor Hellebuyck, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jack Eichel, Mark Scheifele, Mikko Rantanen, and others do that over the course of the next few seasons?
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Should Matthews pave the way and other stars follow suit, eventually, the playing field levels out. No longer will the Toronto Maple Leafs be the only team paying big money to a player on a short-term deal. Other teams will see their top players signing similar contracts, making it just as hard for their respective GMs to navigate the market. As these players try to get their 15% of a bigger salary cap, it will be the select few teams that signed their players last year to eight-year deals that are laughing at how much value the club is getting out of those contracts.
There are drawbacks to Matthews signing a shorter-term deal, the most obvious being that in three or four years, he’s going to command a huge payday. The silver lining is, he’s got the ability to change the market, the Maple Leafs window to win may change, and flexibility has its benefits.
