“Mitch Who?” Gavin McKenna Will Help Maple Leafs Fans Forget About Marner

There may not have been a more polarizing Toronto Maple Leafs player over the past decade than Mitch Marner. There also shouldn’t be much debate about his talent.

We have always been Marner fans. At his best, he was one of the most gifted playmakers in hockey. His ability to anticipate where teammates were going to be, rather than simply where they were, allowed him to make passes other players couldn’t even see.

That’s why comparing Gavin McKenna to Marner sets an extremely high bar. But after looking closely at their development and watching both players at similar stages of their careers, we’re starting to wonder whether McKenna might eventually clear it.

Marner and McKenna’s Development Was Remarkably Similar

Marner’s first full OHL season with the London Knights produced 59 points in 64 games. The following season, he exploded for 126 points in 63 games—exactly two points per game. McKenna followed a remarkably similar path with Medicine Hat.

After getting into 16 WHL games when he was only 15 before he was eligible to play there full-time, McKenna scored 97 points in 61 games during his first full season. In his second, he jumped to 129 points in only 56 games, 2.30 points per game.

We’re not convinced those numbers prove either player was better. If anything, they demonstrate how comparable the two were. Both were playmakers first and goal scorers second. Both dominated junior hockey. Both made enormous statistical jumps during their development. Then their paths diverged.

The Season That Made Some Question McKenna

Marner remained with London for another season before joining the Maple Leafs. McKenna had an opportunity Marner never had. Changes to NCAA eligibility rules allowed McKenna to leave the WHL and join Penn State, where he would play against older, stronger competition. NHL Central Scouting expected an adjustment period before the season even began.

That adjustment came. McKenna finished with 51 points in 35 games—excellent numbers for a 17-year-old NCAA freshman, but not the overwhelming production some expected from a player who had been talked about as a generational prospect.

For some observers, that season created questions about McKenna’s ceiling. We see it differently.

Don’t Look at McKenna’s 35 Games. Look at Two Seasons Within One

McKenna’s final total hides what might be the most important part of his season. In his first 18 games, he recorded: 4 goals, 15 assists, 19 points. In his final 17: 11 goals, 21 assists, 32 points. His production went from 1.06 points per game to 1.88.

That changes how we look at his Penn State season. McKenna encountered a new level of competition. What had worked against junior players didn’t work quite as easily against older and stronger opponents.

Then he adjusted. And once he did, his production took off again. Instead of lowering our opinion of McKenna, his NCAA season may have raised it.

What Happened to McKenna When the Game Got Harder?

That question carries particular significance when the comparison is Mitch Marner. The biggest criticism of Marner during his years in Toronto wasn’t what he could do during the regular season. It was whether he could consistently produce his best hockey when playoff games became tighter, more physical and more difficult.

McKenna hasn’t played a single NHL playoff game. It would be ridiculous to claim we know he’ll handle NHL postseason pressure better than Marner did. We don’t. But McKenna has already given us one interesting piece of evidence about what happens when his game gets harder. He adapts.

We’ve seen a developmental jump in junior hockey. Then, when McKenna moved up another level at Penn State, we watched him adjust and accelerate again. Marner eventually did something similar in the NHL. He scored 61 points as a rookie, 69 in his second season and then exploded for 94 in Year 3. McKenna’s NHL chapter hasn’t been written. That’s what makes the comparison so intriguing.

We Went Looking for Differences

Numbers only tell part of the story, so we went back and watched junior highlights of both players. We’ll also admit something about highlight packages: We don’t completely trust them.

McKenna can make a blind, behind-the-back, tape-to-tape pass look spectacular. The highlight package shows us when it works. It doesn’t necessarily show us every time the same pass ends up on an opponent’s stick.

Marner’s highlights created the opposite problem. Despite being overwhelmingly a playmaker, many of his junior highlight packages concentrated on his goals. So we weren’t prepared to declare one player’s vision better than the other’s based on edited video. Still, we saw something we weren’t expecting.

We went into the exercise looking for differences between Gavin McKenna and Mitch Marner. Instead, we kept finding similarities. Both are playmakers first. Both appear to anticipate openings before they develop. Both have the hands to turn defenders inside out. Both can strip opponents of the puck and immediately turn defence into offence.

At times, the resemblance was almost eerie. If you put McKenna and junior-aged Marner in the same uniform with the same number on their backs, there were moments when we honestly think it would have been difficult to tell which player we were watching.

So Could McKenna Actually Become Better?

Maybe. That’s as far as we’re prepared to go. Nothing we’ve found proves Gavin McKenna will become a better NHL player than Mitch Marner. What we’ve found is something more interesting. At comparable stages, McKenna looks remarkably like him.

The statistics are comparable. Their development through junior hockey was comparable. Their playing styles are remarkably similar. But McKenna has already faced one additional developmental test Marner didn’t have available to him before reaching the NHL.

He moved up to NCAA hockey. He initially slowed down. Then he adjusted. Then he took off again. Marner’s biggest developmental jump came during his third NHL season.

Now McKenna gets his chance. And perhaps that’s the real reason Maple Leafs fans should be excited. The question isn’t whether Gavin McKenna can become another Mitch Marner. It’s what happens if he keeps developing after he gets there.

[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]