American Thanksgiving is always a key benchmark of the NHL season. Generally, about 75 percent of teams in a playoff spot at this point in the calendar end up qualifying for the postseason. However, this season could be a bit different, especially with the parity in the Eastern Conference.
Just nine points separate the first-place New Jersey Devils and the 16th-place Buffalo Sabres. There are some surprise teams in playoff spots, but they are far from sure bets to qualify. Let’s look at candidates from each conference, with a specific focus on what’s happening in the East.
Out: Boston Bruins
The Bruins have been better than expected to start the 2025-26 NHL season, but it looks closer to a mirage than anything else. They’ve been one of the worst five-on-five teams in the NHL, totaling an expected goals share (xG%) of 45.5 percent, ranked 29th. They have improved a bit this month, but that roster doesn’t appear to be good enough to hang around for the long haul.
Although they have improved offensively from a season ago, they’re still averaging 2.41 expected goals per 60 minutes. They’re also giving up too many quality chances, allowing 2.89 expected goals per 60 minutes. The Atlantic Division has been chaotic to start the season, but they’ll have a tough time sticking around if they don’t improve at five-on-five.
In: Florida Panthers
It’s not surprising to see the Panthers out of a playoff spot since they haven’t had Matthew Tkachuk or Aleksander Barkov to begin the season due to injury, but that probably won’t last. Tkachuk is skating again, and while a timeline for his return remains uncertain, he will be back at some point before the Olympics.
In the meantime, the Panthers have done enough to tread water. They’ve been one of the best five-on-five teams in the NHL, even without Tkachuk and Barkov, with an xG% of 54.37. That ranks fifth in the NHL, and it could improve once Tkachuk returns since he’s one of the best play-driving wingers in the NHL. They’re only two points out of a wild-card spot, and they’re better than most of the teams they’re chasing. I expect them to make a push once Tkachuk returns, taking a team like the Bruins out of the mix.
Out: New York Islanders
The Islanders have been one of the better stories in the NHL early this season. Matthew Schaefer is having an outrageous rookie season and is one of the driving forces behind them holding onto a playoff spot at Thanksgiving. Still, they might have a tough time remaining in that position.
While they have changed their identity and shifted to more of an offensive style of hockey under Patrick Roy this season, they give plenty of it back. They’re averaging 2.71 expected goals per 60 but are allowing 2.94 per 60. Having an elite goaltender like Ilya Sorokin can cover that up. But it may still catch up to them, especially since the Metropolitan Division looks better than most of us thought entering the season.
In: New York Rangers
The Rangers have had an interesting start to the season. They couldn’t buy a win or even a goal at Madison Square Garden for nearly the first month. They made up for it with some impressive road wins, but even though they’ve lacked some consistency, their process has certainly improved under head coach Mike Sullivan.
After struggling at five-on-five under Peter Laviolette a year ago, the Rangers have an xG% of 53.04 percent, ranked eighth in the NHL. There’s been a dip in their five-on-five play over the last couple of weeks, so that’s something to monitor, but they look like a better team than the Islanders. Their ceiling is probably that of a wild-card team, but they’re only two points behind the Islanders. They should overtake them in the long run.
Out: Seattle Kraken
The Western Conference playoff picture is much clearer than the East. There’s much more separation between the top teams and the basement dwellers, with teams like the Nashville Predators and Calgary Flames already out of the picture. That helps a club like the Seattle Kraken, but I’m still not buying their 11-6-6 start.
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The Kraken have been one of the worst five-on-five teams in the NHL, with an xG% of 43.09. The only team with a worse xG% at five-on-five is the Vancouver Canucks, who have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NHL. Goaltending has been the key for the Kraken, as their netminders have saved a combined 9.6 goals above expected. Perhaps they can keep that up, but being sub-45 percent in expected goals will likely catch up to them.
In: Edmonton Oilers?
One problem figuring out who replaces the Kraken is that teams 9-16 in the West aren’t particularly good. The Chicago Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks are on the cusp of wild-card spots, but I’m not buying long-term stock in them just yet. I picked the Oilers because they have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but I don’t have any confidence in doing so.
Goaltending has been an issue for the Oilers, but they’re also giving up way too many quality and high-danger chances. It’s not just a goaltending problem in Edmonton. It’s their defense, too. They have an xG% of 47.59 at five-on-five and a goal differential of -18 at all strengths. This isn’t the typical slow start for the Oilers. They’ve been legitimately bad, but perhaps McDavid and Draisaitl figure it out and put the team on their backs.
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The Toronto Maple Leafs have similar issues to the Oilers. Their goaltending has struggled, though Joseph Woll has played well since returning from injury, and their defense is allowing too many quality chances. Their five-on-five numbers aren’t awful, but playoff odds makers don’t love their chances of climbing back into the race.
Playoff odds are a snapshot in time, so a five or six-game heater can put them back in the picture, especially in a muddled Eastern Conference. Still, MoneyPuck only gives the Maple Leafs a 7.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, while The Athletic has them at 33 percent (From ‘NHL 2025-26 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings’ – The Athletic, 11/27/2025). They’ll have to make a run soon because eventually, there’ll be some separation in the East, and they could fall behind.
In the West, the Winnipeg Jets look to be in the most trouble. Their identity centers around Connor Hellebuyck, but he’s out for the next four to six weeks after having knee surgery. They’re one of the worst five-on-five teams in the NHL, so they need elite goaltending to get by. They’re also one of the slowest and oldest teams, so they could be out of the picture by Christmas with Hellebuyck out.
Another team that could miss the playoffs is the Montreal Canadiens. Their situation is far from as dire as the Jets or Maple Leafs, but they’re in toss-up territory with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Both teams have similar five-on-five numbers and makeups, so it could go either way. The last playoff spot in the East should come down to one of them.
Overall, it’s been an exciting start to the season. Plenty of teams that weren’t expected to be in playoff contention are in it coming out of American Thanksgiving. That should make for some exciting races as we hit the stretch run of the season.
Advanced stats from MoneyPuck
