Flyers’ X-Factor for 2024-25: Puck Possession

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For the Philadelphia Flyers to avenge their last-day-of-the-season playoff miss in 2023-24, they need a few things to go right. We can point to several “X-factors”, like the goaltending, how rookie Matvei Michkov will perform, and how the defense will adapt to essentially replacing Sean Walker with Jamie Drysdale. But no X-factor is greater than the rate at which the Orange and Black possess the puck.

Flyers’ 2023-24 Season Depended on Puck Possession

Despite having the second-worst save percentage (SV%) coupled with the second-worst shooting percentage (SH%) in the NHL in 2023-24, the Flyers nearly made the postseason. In fact, the sum of their SV% and SH% (PDO) was the fourth-worst since the 2005 lockout. It was only beaten by last-place finishers, including the 2012-13 Florida Panthers, 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche, and 2019-20 Detroit Red Wings—they had a cumulative record of 54-132-15 (50 points per 82 games).

So, how did the Flyers do so well despite being one of the least efficient savers and shooters of the puck? It has to do with their possession. According to NHL Edge, they tied for the seventh-best rate of offensive-zone possession in the league at 42.3 percent. Philadelphia often took low-end shots (fourth-highest low-danger shot total in the NHL), so it’s not entirely surprising that their SH% suffered the fate it did. The three teams ahead of them had a good chunk of talent yet even they finished with a combined 9.9 SH%—this would be 21st in the league.

The Flyers’ defense was notably pretty impressive, but the team’s possession metrics paved the way for success. Because the puck was rarely in dangerous situations, they had the seventh-fewest expected goals against and the 13th-best expected goals percentage (xGF%) at all strengths. The offensive chance generation is a separate issue (and something I’ll get into), but the point here is that a poor SV% didn’t matter all that much because quality shots were immensely difficult to muster against Philadelphia.

Had the Flyers not had the puck all of the time, they would have been one of the worst teams in the NHL. Their PDO is an indictment of their talent level, as they couldn’t score or make saves at a competent rate. However, burying one or two fewer shots per 100 and saving one or two fewer per 100 than the average team doesn’t matter if you outshoot the opponent by 482 like the Flyers—this was the third-best differential in the league.

In a theoretical world where the Orange and Black weren’t in the midst of a rebuild, their numbers would have allowed them to cruise into the postseason. Their expected goals metrics were fairly similar to the Vegas Golden Knights (who made the playoffs with 98 points), just for some context. The dearth of talent in the Flyers’ lineup to the severest degree was their undoing. They always had the puck like a contender would, but never did anything with it.

Can the Flyers Repeat This Excellence?

Head coach John Tortorella is far from perfect. Sometimes his lineup decisions can seem like intentional sabotage—almost as if he wants to lose.

At the same time, he is as good as anyone at maximizing the potential of a roster like the 2023-24 Flyers. He had them sacrifice some of their offensive upside (even if it wasn’t high, to begin with) to focus on maintaining puck possession. Philadelphia was aggressive in transition but limited chances against due to taking smart shots for the most part, accumulating more blocks than 30 other clubs, exiting the defensive zone with more poise than previous renditions of the team, and making it a focal point in general to have the puck.

John Tortorella Philadelphia Flyers
John Tortorella, Philadelphia Flyers Head Coach (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

The addition of Michkov adds the element of talent and creativity that the Flyers desperately needed. He’s one player, and a teenager at that, but hockey in Philadelphia was pretty bland last season. He has both the brain and the talent to try literally anything to help his team score—yes, even the “Michigan” which Tortorella has become infamous for opposing in the past.

Related: More Philadelphia Flyers Season Preview Articles

Michkov drove offense in the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) at an unprecedented rate for his age—he was his team’s offense, posting similar numbers to Kirill Kaprizov’s 2019-20 KHL season. Michkov is ahead of the curve here to an unfathomable degree, as Kaprizov was four years older when he put up these numbers. By 2021-22, the latter had become an NHL superstar and an essential play driver.

I bring up Michkov because he’s someone who can really take this thing to the next level. If the Flyers’ possession numbers are similar, he’s the one who can create offense. Having the puck is just the first step—he’s a player who can do something with it.

It might sound premature to claim Michkov can have this grand of an impact, but he’s years ahead in the development process of even some stars. It took future NHL superstar Artemi Panarin until his fourth season following draft eligibility to score at the same point-per-game rate (0.67) in the KHL as Michkov did in his first season of eligibility in 2022-23. Historically, nobody touches this youngster.

I personally have no worries about how Michkov will adapt, though it will be something to monitor. The key here is if the rest of the team (as well as the linemates around him) can play like they did in 2023-24, if not better. If the goaltending improves even just a little bit and the team possesses the puck at a similar rate to last season, we’re almost definitely looking at a playoff berth here. But if the other lines on the team consistently sacrifice more chances than they produce and the goaltending is somehow worse (I doubt it, but certainly possible), that’s where disaster can strike.

To me, everything comes down to whether the Flyers can replicate their puck possession from their surprisingly competitive 2023-24 campaign. It’s the difference between a playoff team and a basement-dweller—can it carry over, or was it a fluke?

Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

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