The Winnipeg Jets’ offseason has yet to be as dramatic as everyone predicted, with just one major domino falling with the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade with the Los Angeles Kings.
The main reason for that is that Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele are still members of the organization. Given their pending unrestricted free agent (UFA) status next offseason, it seemed like a given that the Jets were going to move them ahead of this season to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing next summer. In the past month, reports have been incredibly quiet on both fronts, which is leading many people to believe that they will start training camp as members of the team.
This article is not only predicting their future contracts with the Jets, but these could also be with another team if they are moved before the season begins.
Let’s paint a picture: Both Hellebuyck and Scheifele show up to training camp and express interest in an extension to general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff. What would those extensions look like? Would it be in the Jets’ best interest to pay them at their market value price?
Connor Hellebuyck: $8.5-9 Million AAV x 4 Years
At the beginning of the offseason, I would have predicted something around $9.5 million for Hellebuyck in the short term. That was before Ilya Sorokin of the New York Islanders signed for an average annual value (AAV) of $8.25 million for the next eight years.
While Hellebuyck has a more impressive resume than Sorokin, he is also two years older, and both goaltenders are coming off of a season where they finished top three in Vezina Trophy voting. Teams are much more reluctant to pay goaltenders big money, which also hurts Hellebuyck’s market value.
Anything longer than four years would be problematic, as paying goaltenders big money into their late 30s is typically a salary cap death wish. With all those parameters in mind, my prediction is between $8.5-9 million per season for the next four years.
Related: Jets’ Signing of Brossoit Could Lead to Hellebuyck Re-Signing
Having a Vezina Trophy-level goaltender should be seen as a massive advantage. What many teams are doing in today’s NHL is having two cheaper, fringe starter-level goaltenders and running a “1A/1B” goaltending tandem. While the Jets may be better off going in this direction in the post-Hellebuyck era, having their starting goaltender there through a re-tool would keep them competitive for those seasons.
With prospects like Chaz Lucius, Brad Lambert, Rutger McGroarty, and Colby Barlow likely coming to the NHL in the next three seasons, having Hellebuyck in the net would create a competitive environment for the younger players to walk into.
That comes at the risk of being in the “mediocre middle” as many call it, which is where the Jets have been for the past five seasons. If they paid Hellebuyck this extension, they may not be able to build a Cup-winning team around him, and he is too good of a goaltender to keep them out of the basement.
Mark Scheifele: $7-8 Million AAV x 4 years
Somebody needs to play centre for the Jets in the short term. Scheifele, the first-ever draft pick made by the 2.0 instalment of the Jets franchise, is coming off of a season where he netted a career-high 42 goals. A big part of this was deployment. Under new head coach Rick Bowness, he had career-highs in offensive zone starts with 284, and offensive zone start percentage at 65.59%. Bowness knows that he is a weapon offensively who struggles in his own end, and the easiest way to combat that is simple – start him on offence as much as possible.
Related: Mark Scheifele Still a Jet Today for Many Reasons
Scheifele is due for another massive year offensively, as his deployment will likely stay the same as the team’s top centre option. If he were to hit the open market after a 42-goal season, he would likely command between $7-8 million AAV on a shorter-term four-year deal as he is currently 30 years old. He would certainly get a raise on his current AAV of $6.125 million.
While the centre pipeline is encouraging for the Jets organization with Lucius and Lambert set to fill those roles in the future, if they were to trade Scheifele now, their centre depth for the 2023-24 season would be a major weakness. As it currently stands, one of the newly-signed Gabriel Vilardi, Cole Perfetti, or Vladislav Namestnikov will have to fill that second-line centre role.
The fact that he can contribute plenty of offence from the centre position is extremely valuable to a Jets team that is lacking depth at that spot, which is why an extension makes sense from a roster construction standpoint. Cheveldayoff has proven to be loyal to his long-time players in the past, and extending Scheifele into his age-34 season and potentially beyond is something that is certainly on the table.
This contract would give the Jets the ability to have a fringe number-one centre for the next four years while figuring out the future of the position on the fly. By year three or four of this deal, one of their prospects may have emerged as a true number-one centre. While a deal for Hellebuyck provides a lot of risk due to the high price tag, this deal may be the more likely and more beneficial one that the Jets could do.
A portion of the Jets fanbase would dislike this deal, as their patience has run out on Scheifele’s defensive struggles. The counterargument to that would be this – someone has to put the puck in the net, and someone has to play centre. It’s as simple as that, and if the Jets were to move Scheifele, they would be severely lacking in both aspects down the middle.
These Situations May Be Resolved at the Trade Deadline
The markets for Hellebuyck and Scheifele are clearly in a spot that the Jets are not comfortable with. It seems more likely that these situations will be resolved at the 2024 Trade Deadline. Many fans have wondered whether or not Cheveldayoff will move them at the deadline if the Jets are in a playoff spot, but it seems as though that is the dilemma they are willing to face.
If both players express an interest in staying in Winnipeg long-term, this is what you can expect their contracts to look like. While that is a big “if”, the Jets have shown a willingness to talk about extensions with these players. While there is nothing on the organizational schedule until training camp, an extension or trade involving one of these two players could happen at any moment.
