The 2025-26 NHL season is hitting the point where the standings start to feel real. The margins are thin, and the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs races are jammed. A couple of bad games can quickly undo months of solid work. Teams that look safe right now aren’t nearly as comfortable as they appear, while a few clubs sitting just outside the picture are one heater away from forcing their way in. With so many teams separated by only a handful of points, how you handle the second half of the schedule is going to matter more than reputation or preseason hype.
Back in the preseason, we already predicted some changes in the playoff picture. But much of everyone’s assumption was that familiar contenders like the Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Winnipeg Jets would be cruising toward playoff spots. Instead, the results have been uneven, and the standings have shifted quickly. Several teams are already outperforming or falling short of expectations.
With that in mind, let’s break down where the playoff race stands right now and which teams are most at risk of sliding out, along with the ones best positioned to take their place.
The 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Picture at the Halfway Point
Projecting the playoff field at this point is challenging, given the tight standings and narrow margins. Injuries, uneven schedules, and a fair amount of puck luck have played an outsized role in shaping the race, muddying the picture. Still, upon examining the underlying numbers, we can identify a few teams.
Which Teams in the Picture Will Fall Out?
Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers have been one of the more surprising stories of the season, but there are warning signs beneath the surface. Their point total is running ahead of what their chance quality (17th in scoring chances percentage per Natural Stat Trick) and possession metrics (24th) would normally support. They have also been one of the healthier teams (per NHL Injury Viz), particularly up front, which matters in an Eastern Conference where nearly everyone is packed within a few points. If the puck luck dries up even slightly and the injury bug starts to bite, Philly will be one of the teams fading down the stretch.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins are hanging around the playoff picture, but they’re doing so with little margin for error. Their underlying numbers are closer to average than contender-level, and the roster still leans heavily on Sidney Crosby (definitely not a kid anymore at 38 years old) playing at an MVP-caliber level. Injuries haven’t completely derailed them yet, but when they’ve hit, they’ve tended to affect high-impact players (like Evgeni Malkin). In a crowded East, and with one of the hardest remaining schedules (ranked seventh-most difficult in Strength of Schedule by Tankathon), the Pens don’t need to collapse to miss. One or two bad weeks are enough to keep them out.
Related: Penguins’ Best & Worst Moves Under GM Ron Hextall
Seattle Kraken
Even though the Kraken are still in the Western Conference’s picture, there are many reasons to think their current spot isn’t sustainable. Their offense has struggled to score consistently with subpar metrics, and that lack of sustained offense will be why this team regresses. They are mainly held up by some unsustainable goaltending, namely from Philipp Grubauer. His 11.0 goals saved above average and .926 save percentage are bound to cool off.
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings‘ playoff position looks shakier the deeper you dig. They’ve enjoyed elite injury luck so far, near the top of the league, which is a big reason their depth hasn’t been stress-tested. That cushion disappears fast when paired with one of the toughest remaining schedules in the East, loaded with divisional games where point swings are brutal. They had the easier part of their schedule now, and they still have a negative goal differential (minus-5). Without the same advantages in the second half, they’re vulnerable to slipping in a crowded race.
Which Teams on the Outside Will Make It In?
Florida Panthers
Surprise? The Panthers have been dragged down by one of the heaviest injury burdens in the league, which goes a long way toward explaining why their record doesn’t match their underlying performance. Their PDO sits below league average, a classic indicator of a team that’s been snake-bitten rather than outplayed. They should get healthier in the second half, which starts with Matthew Tkachuk returning. The two-time defending Stanley Cup champs have the profile of a team that can rip off a strong run and reclaim a playoff spot quickly.
New Jersey Devils
The Devils show up as one of the unluckier teams by PDO (only the Edmonton Oilers rank lower on 5-on-5 metrics), particularly due to inconsistent goaltending and shooting variance, not a lack of chance generation. Unlike the Red Wings, they’ve also absorbed meaningful injury impact (alongside the Panthers), especially among high-usage players. If health stabilizes and shooting accuracy even improves (ranked dead last at 8.9%), the Devils should make a playoff run. It helps that they have a manageable schedule down the stretch.
Utah Mammoth
The Mammoth are positioned well to jump into a playoff spot, largely because they’ve shown they can win games even when their underlying numbers aren’t spectacular, and they’ve captured momentum at key times. They have a better offense than the Kraken and have a positive goal differential (plus-6) despite having one of the weakest goaltending situations. In a way, they’re almost the opposite of the team we have them replacing.
Buffalo Sabres
Yes, we believe. The Sabres are a much better fit here than the usual suspects. They have shown signs of negative variance, especially in finishing and game outcomes relative to their play-driving metrics, suggesting they’ve been less “lucky” than the standings indicate. They’ve also dealt with meaningful injury disruption, particularly among key contributors, yet remain within reach. The 10-game winning streak was not a fluke, but a sign of a bullish future. Even modest regression toward average luck, Buffalo has a clearer path to climbing than teams propped up by early-season health.
Eastern Conference Playoff Race Will Be One for the Books
The playoff race, especially in the East, will continue to be wide open. “Parity is king,” some say. Some teams like the Flyers and Red Wings risk regression from unsustainable luck and brutal schedules, while injury-hit contenders like the Panthers, plus a surging Sabres, are best positioned to climb. In today’s NHL, a single streak could reshape the postseason field.
