When the Detroit Red Wings announced that they are retiring Sergei Fedorov’s No. 91, countless memories came flooding back to the collective consciousness of Hockeytown.
Fedorov’s five-goal night against Washington. His performances in the Stanley Cup runs. The highlight-reel plays made throughout his career.
Finally, he gets the recognition he deserves – a permanent place in Red Wings history.
The reason why this took so long is the focus of today’s piece. After holding out for much of the 1997-98 season and forcing the Red Wings to match a front-loaded offer sheet from the Carolina Hurricanes, Fedorov opted to sign with the Anaheim (then Mighty) Ducks after the 2002-03 season.
It was a heartbreaking moment for the franchise. Not only did Fedorov leave, but he reportedly took less with Anaheim than what Detroit originally offered.
It stung. It stung the fanbase. It stung the franchise. And it stung Red Wings ownership – the Ilitch family. Fedorov’s departure left a bruise that wouldn’t heal for another 20-plus years.
But what if Fedorov stayed? Surely, his number would have been retired sooner. What about the team, though? Would the Red Wings have continued along their trajectory in the same manner with Fedorov still part of the team? I’m not so certain that would have been the case. Here’s why.
2003-04 Red Wings With Fedorov
Let’s start with the facts. Fedorov signed with Anaheim on July 19, 2003. A few days later, Detroit signed Ray Whitney.
If Fedorov had accepted Detroit’s five-year, $50 million offer, it’s doubtful that the organization would have signed Whitney. Otherwise, let’s say the Red Wings’ other offseason moves stayed the same. Here’s what their lineup would have looked like entering the 2003-04 season.
| LW | C | RW |
| Brendan Shanahan | Sergei Fedorov | Tomas Holmstrom |
| Henrik Zetterberg | Pavel Datsyuk | Brett Hull |
| Steve Thomas | Kris Draper | Steve Yzerman |
| Kirk Maltby | Mark Mowers | Darren McCarty |
| Boyd Devereaux | Jason Williams |
| LD | RD | G |
| Nicklas Lidstrom | Mathieu Schneider | Manny Legace |
| Jiri Fischer | Chris Chelios | Curtis Joseph |
| Jason Woolley | Mathieu Dandenault | Dominik Hasek |
| Derian Hatcher (Inj.) | Jamie Rivers |
Takeaways & Thoughts
- Pavel Datsyuk stepped up following Fedorov’s departure; would he have developed the same way if Fedorov remained?
- Detroit acquired Robert Lang—the NHL’s leading scorer at the time—at the deadline to fill the void left by Fedorov; it’s doubtful they would have done this with Fedorov still aboard.
- Instead, Ken Holland likely would have pivoted and targeted a top-tier defenseman (i.e. Brian Leetch or Sergei Gonchar) or a mid-tier forward similar to Whitney (i.e. Valeri Bure, Anson Carter, or Geoff Sanderson).
- The package for Lang—Tomas Fleischmann, a first-round pick (Mike Green – yes, that Mike Green), and a fourth rounder—likely would have been needed to acquire Leetch or Gonchar, and less would have been required for a forward target; it’s entirely possibly Fleischmann remained and/or Detroit kept their first and selected Green.
- Detroit won the President’s Trophy without Fedorov in 2003-04; they likely would have been a better team with him.
- Lang was Detroit’s only consistent playoff performer; it’s reasonable to assume that Fedorov would have surpassed Lang’s nine points in 12 playoff games.
- Could Detroit have gotten past the Calgary Flames in the second round? Maybe. They might have defeated the San Jose Sharks in the Conference Final, too, and faced off against the Tampa Bay Lightning for the 2004 Stanley Cup.
- If Detroit makes it to the Conference Final or further, does Dave Lewis remain the Red Wings’ coach heading into the lockout and beyond?
- Elsewhere, does Mike Babcock’s stock dip without Fedorov in Anaheim?
Lockout & 2005-06 Red Wings Team
Unfortunately, the 2004-05 lockout was unavoidable. Fedorov had no impact on that. He would have, though, on what happened coming out of the lockout.
Part of the new CBA was a 24 percent reduction in player salaries to fit under the newly constructed $39 million salary cap. With this, Fedorov’s five-year, $50 million contract signed back in 2003 would have converted into a $7.6 million salary/cap hit through 2007-08.
Another feature of the new CBA was the compliance buyout function, which allowed teams to buy out players without any impact on their salary cap. In 2005, Detroit bought out Whitney, Darren McCarty, and Derian Hatcher. After buying out these players, Detroit’s 23-man roster featured a $38,247,500 total cap hit, leaving $752,500 in cap space.
Back to the alternate universe where Fedorov stayed in Detroit, more salary cap adjustments would have been needed to become compliant. Swapping in Fedorov for Lang, the Red Wings would have been $3,047,500 over the cap. And this excludes any players brought in during the 2003-04 season.
There are two paths to cap compliance here. The first is a piecemeal approach:
- Re-sign for cheaper or opt to let go of Mathieu Schneider ($3.3 million), Steve Yzerman ($1.25 million), Chris Chelios ($850,000), and/or Jason Woolley ($507,000).
- Sign cheaper free agents than Chris Osgood ($900,000), Andreas Lilja ($650,000) and/or Mikael Samuelsson ($537,500).
- Buy out Kirk Maltby ($1.444 million).
Alternatively, Detroit could have bought out Fedorov. Having two players—Nick Lidstrom had an identical $7.6 million cap hit—account for 39 percent of the salary cap would not have been ideal. Plus, Fedorov was 35 at this point and would turn 36 in December 2005.
Regardless, the construction of the 2005-06 Red Wings would have altered significantly from our reality. In addition, there would have downstream impacts on the franchise, too, which could have shifted them off course from another Stanley Cup (i.e. bigger changes ahead of 2006-07 with Yzerman and Shanahan departing, no Osgood for 2007-08 playoff run, etc.). Keep in mind, Fedorov’s production tailed off in the post-lockout NHL. Sure, he played on some bad teams, but it’s reasonable to expect that 60-to-80-point campaigns were a thing of the past regardless or where the center played.
Final Word
In a world where Fedorov re-signed with the Red Wings in 2003, they might have challenged for the Stanley Cup in 2004. But beyond that, it’s hazy. Millions of possibilities exist. And based on the path I chose, I am not certain they’d capture another Cup in the post-lockout NHL.
It’s an interesting topic to consider. There’s a rosy perspective of Fedorov as a life-long Red Wing. But would you change the past? Probably not.
It’s doubtful Fedorov would have, either.
“I remember exactly how I felt back then,” Fedorov told RG.org. “Of course, there’s a part of my reasoning that I’ve only ever shared with those closest to me. But I can honestly say it was the right decision. It was a deeply human, sincere choice. At that time, it was how I truly felt.”
Either way, it will be great to see Fedorov’s No. 91 hoisted to the Little Caesars Arena rafters in January.
