Sabres’ Struggles Can’t Be Fully Blamed on Goaltending

The last week of Buffalo Sabres hockey has shown promise while being rife with disappointment. The furious comeback against the Montreal Canadiens secured the team’s fourth point in three games only to follow it up with a clunker of a loss to the sad-sack Philadelphia Flyers.

While the concern is still relatively low, the Sabres need to look in the mirror. A lot of blame has been cast on the goaltending, but there is a lot more going on than what’s happening in the crease.

Goaltending Hasn’t Been Great…

It’s hard to look at the overall stats and say that there is a silver lining. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has handled the lion’s share of the starts, and the numbers aren’t good: 3.53 goals against average, .864 save percentage, and a -5.6 goals saved above average. Colten Ellis has been merely okay in spot duty and Alex Lyon is still on the shelf with a shoulder injury.

The biggest criticism against Luukkonen is his lack of consistency. Against the Flyers, for instance, he couldn’t be blamed for the first two goals but let it a stinker that ultimately ended up putting the game out of reach.

Luukkonen is actually quite good when it comes to stopping high-danger chances – he’s in the 70^th percentile according to Hockey Stats – but legitimately bad when it comes to low- and medium-danger chances. Luukkonen is capable of stealing games or letting in baffling goals. He has to find some level of consistency to his game.

…But Neither Has Team Defense

That said, the blame cannot be entirely placed on Luukkonen. Let’s look again at the game against the Flyers. The first two goals the visitors scored came from right around the goalmouth, leaving Luukkonen with little chance to make the stop.

That has been a consistent theme with this team so far. Their net-front defense has been porous, with juicy rebounds, coverage lapses, outnumbered defensemen, and more. It’s tough to ask more of your goaltending when you are also leaving them in untenable situations.

The good news is that this is something that can be fixed, especially because the underlying numbers show the Sabres are strong defensively. Only 43.24% of their giveaways come in the defensive zone, for instance – that’s fifth best in the NHL. The foundation is there; they just have to clean things up in front of their own net.

Can’t Continue to Only Find Motivation When Trailing

A bigger issue is overall team play. They show a general malaise in most games, going through the motions offensively, usually spotting the opposition a healthy lead. Comebacks against the Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs just last week show that they can turn it on when needed.

Playing with a lead might just do wonders for Luukkonen and the goaltending. Having to be perfect early to keep games from slipping out of hand certainly weighs heavily. The offense has had bright spots, but the power play is still largely a mess, and too many important contributors have done little to nothing in the goalscoring department.

It’s great that they’ve shown fight and not let themselves be put out of games early, but that’s not sustainable. It also puts undue pressure on the goaltending, adding to their troubles over the long-term. The Sabres need to get off to better starts, plain and simple.

‘A Good Team with a Lot to Clean Up’

Many feel that the solution is still a Connor Hellebuyck trade, and that would certainly provide a boost. Given Luukkonen’s no-trade clause, it feels more likely that this is the group they are going with in goal, so supporting him is the play right now.

Luukkonen has shown the ability to be dominant for stretches; he just needs a little more out of the team in front of him. Better starts and net-front defense are good areas to focus on. If they can do that and Luukkonen still struggles, then that presents a whole new problem to handle.