With their overtime loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Nov. 14, the Ottawa Senators found themselves outside a wildcard playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Had they won, they would have had the lock on a spot. In 16 tilts so far this season, the Senators record is 8-7-1, giving them a points percentage (PTS%) of .531. That’s below the .600 mark that, in most seasons, is needed for a team to punch a ticket to the playoffs as a wildcard entry.
The Senators’ inspiring shutout win over the Toronto Maple Leafs just two nights before had some hockey commentators gushing that this season’s edition of the Ottawa Senators is a different and far better team than what fans in Bytown have endured these past seven seasons. Yet with their loss to the Flyers, many Ottawa hockey pundits say these boasts are overblown.
So, who is right? Is this season’s edition of the Senators better than what fans have seen in the last few?
It’s early, but I’ll go out on a limb and say that the Senators in 2024-25 are indeed a better team than we’ve seen in recent seasons. Still, a playoff berth next spring isn’t guaranteed. Proof of that was on full display against the Flyers when the Senators blew a 4-2 third-period lead. Even so, the playoffs at this point in the season are still a realistic hope.
Here’s my case.
Senators Off to Better Start in 2024-25, But Worries Remain
After 16 games last season, the Senators had notched as many losses as wins, racking up a .500 PTS%. It was all downhill from there and the team finished the season two points ahead of the lowly Montreal Canadiens in the Eastern Conference and 26th in the league overall.
Skeptics will point out that to this point in the season, the Senators are only one point ahead of where they were last season after 16 games. They’ll also point to their inconsistency. While they’ve registered impressive wins against top teams like the Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs, they’ve gone down against teams they should have beaten (see losses to the Habs, Buffalo Sabres, New York Islanders and the Flyers). What’s more, the Senators haven’t strung together more than a two-game winning streak so far this season.
Related: Senators’ Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance in November
What the team does in the remainder of November could determine their fate this season. The Senators need to win consistently. Now would be a good time for them to put together a lengthy win streak.
Senators Have Returned to Respectability in 2024-25
Even so, on statistics that matter, the Senators have demonstrated they are a better team this season than the one that limped out of Canadian Tire Centre last spring. Have a look:
| Statistic | 2024-25 Season | 2023-24 at Season End |
| Goals For (GF) | 11th of 32 Teams | 18th of 32 Teams |
| Goals Against (GA) | 11th of 32 Teams | 26th of 32 Teams |
| PTS% | .531 | .476 |
| Power-Play Percentage (PP%) | 29.63 | 18.02 |
| Penalty-Kill Percentage (PK%) | 80.00 | 75.10 |
| Save Percentage (SV%) | .885 | .884 |
Compared to NHL averages this season on these metrics, the Senators have returned to respectability.
| Statistic | 2024-25 Season | NHL Average for 2024-25 |
| GF | 55 | 51 |
| GA | 49 | 51 |
| PTS% | .531 | .552 |
| PP% | 29.63 | 20.42 |
| PK% | 80.0 | 79.58 |
| SV% | .885 | .894 |
It’s likely the Senators will improve further in the GF category, but even now they sit firmly among those teams in the top half of the league. That’s in no small part due to the massive improvement in their PP% which now sits well above the league average.
Still, what is even more impressive is their GA stat this season as compared to last, sitting as it does now at 11th overall. That’s no doubt helped by the almost five-point improvement in their PK%, now rated in the middle of the pack.
Goaltending as measured by SV% is just shy of the league average of .894. Given the acquisition of Linus Ullmark last summer, fans rightly expect it to be better. All signs say that it will be. Over his last five starts, Ullmark has notched a SV% of .875 and a goals-against average (GAA) of 2.80. While uninspiring, his stats were brought down considerably by his weak performance in the loss to the Flyers. Prior to that, his five-game SV% was well over .900 and his GAA sat at 2.00.
In his last five starts, backup goalie Anton Forsberg has registered a SV% of .920 and a GAA of 2.20. He is tied for second in the league for shutouts. What’s more, the Senators had just two shutouts last season. They already have three this season – two of which were earned by Forsberg.
Special teams and goaltending were always the keys to success this season. Maybe, just maybe, the Senators can put their worries about both behind them.
Senators’ Offensive Firepower Finally Emerging in 2024-25
One of the reasons the Senators are 13th in goal-scoring this season is that for the first time in several seasons, all their big guns are healthy and launching an offensive barrage. Tim Stutzle has marked up the score sheet with 21 points in 16 games, followed by Brady Tkachuk with 19. The two are just a few points out of cracking the NHL’s top 10 list of point-getters.
Stutzle ranks 19th in the league in even-strength goals while Tkachuk’s power-play goals put him at sixth overall. Not only that, but he’s third in shots on goal. The two are a big reason the Senators’ top six has notched an impressive 84 points over 16 games.
What’s more, for the first time in a while, the Senators are healthy at centre. Josh Norris appears to have found his mojo playing between Tkachuk and Ridly Greig on the first line. Stutzle is a pure danger to any opposing team he laces up against. Shane Pinto and Adam Gaudette give opponents no quarter skating down the middle on the third and fourth lines respectively. Gaudette’s shooting percentage puts him at fourth in the NHL.
Noah Gregor, Michael Amadio, Nick Cousins and Zack MacEwen provide a grit and veteran experience that the Senators haven’t seen in their bottom six for several seasons. All, apart from MacEwen, have been part of Stanley Cup-winning teams.
Senators Are Developing an Identity
The Senators have seen massive changes in personnel, starting at the top with the hiring of Steve Staios as president of hockey operations and general manager (GM). He brings a vision to the Senators that former GM Pierre Dorion never had.
The arrival of head coach Travis Green seems to have ushered in a new era in Ottawa in which players are held accountable and actual wins count for more than moral victories. Playing “meaningful games till the end” as Dorion once defined a successful season no longer cuts it in Ottawa.
As Green explained to the TSN’s Gord Wilson following their shutout win on Nov. 12 over the Maple Leafs, “This is one of those games where you tell your team that if you play a certain way you can have success. If you don’t, you’re not going to. We’ve had some games we’ve really liked this year, more games than we haven’t.”
Stutzle, for one, understands what Green and his coaching staff are expecting from him and the other young guns on the team. Speaking in a postgame interview after the win against Toronto, Stutzle explained, “You don’t really understand what it takes to win in the NHL when you’re young and I think we have it this year. We know what we got to do; we know the way we got to play. And I think we showed it multiple times.”
Gregor, a veteran winger, is also a believer in the new culture Staios and Green are creating in Ottawa, saying after the game against the Maple Leafs, “Identity – they’ve found it – I think it’s right there. That’s our game. It’s playing fast, playing hard, playing physical, and then being committed on the defensive side. I thought we showed all those aspects tonight.”
Senators Are a New Team in 2024-25
Judging by the win column after 16 games, the Senators are no further ahead of where they stood last season. Still, the team has demonstrated that they are a different squad from the one their fans were forced to endure over the last few seasons. That much is clear in the seven regular roster players who decamped to what they considered greener pastures at the end of last season. All were replaced by determined veterans who know how to win.
Yet the change runs deeper than just the players who left town and those who replaced them. The faithful in Bytown are beginning to see that in the winning culture that is taking root in Ottawa. That new culture means they are starting to see results on key performance measures.
