When the Ottawa Senators announced the signing of Vladimir Tarasenko, it felt like the perfect way to confirm to fans that they were all in on getting into the playoffs. The 31-year-old Russian has crossed the 70-point plateau three times and hit at least 30 goals six times over his 12-year career, but he’s far from over the hill. His career-high came just two seasons ago when he scored 34 goals and 82 points with the St. Louis Blues. Adding a player of his calibre to this up-and-coming team sends a clear message – this is a team to get excited about.
Although Tarasenko helps shore up the top six following Alex DeBrincat’s departure, his $5 million contract puts the Senators right up against the cap; at the time of writing, Ottawa has just $895,953 remaining in cap space. That’s a problem for young center Shane Pinto, who remains without a contract. A second-round pick in 2018, he’s emerged as one of the most promising prospects in Ottawa’s system not named Jake Sanderson. Losing him in favour of a veteran rental like Tarasenko would be a massive failure for the franchise, meaning the team needs to find a creative solution to retain both players.
Pinto’s Rookie Season Had Promise
Following two successful seasons at the University of North Dakota, the Senators signed Pinto to a three-year entry-level deal on April 1, 2021, and before the 2020-21 season ended, he appeared in 12 games and scored seven points. It was a very promising start for the youngster and all but guaranteed that the former Hobey Baker finalist would be given prominent minutes in 2021-22. However, everything came to a screeching halt in mid-Nov. 2021 when he sustained a season-ending shoulder injury just five games into his rookie season and after missing some time to a minor shoulder injury.
Every game is crucial for a young player’s development and so there were legitimate concerns about whether Pinto could bounce back after missing an entire year. But it didn’t take him long to get right back to where he was. In the second game of 2022-23, he scored the first of five goals in each of his next five games. By his eighth game, he already had six goals and seven points and was earning some Calder Trophy consideration.
Unfortunately, Pinto’s hot streak didn’t continue, and it took him another 39 games for him to double his goal total. It’s not insignificant that Josh Norris left the lineup following the team’s eighth game with a shoulder injury that ended his season. His absence forced Pinto and many others to play in situations they were not prepared for and the team struggled to adapt. The Senators fell flat, stringing together a seven-game losing streak, putting them well outside the playoff race by the end of November and they never fully recovered.
Related: Senators’ Fans Weigh In on Clearing Cap Space to Sign Pinto
Even with so many things working against him, Pinto still finished seventh on the team with 35 points and his 20 goals put him sixth while playing all 82 games. Despite playing third-line minutes, he was a crucial part of the Senators’ offence, finishing the season as a positive possession player while many of his linemates were not, meaning he was consistently driving the play when he was on the ice. He also finished tied for fourth with Drake Batherson with 38 takeaways and was one of the Senators’ most accurate shooters, finishing his rookie season with 57.8% of his shots going on net.
Comparable Deals for Pinto
There are a lot of different players that fans can look at to get a sense of what Pinto might be looking for with his second NHL contract. One comparable that has already been discussed is Alex Newhook, who is also 22 years old and just came off his entry-level deal. In his rookie season with the Colorado Avalanche in 2021-22, he put up 13 goals and 33 points while spending 10 games in the American Hockey League (AHL) and then followed that up with a 14-goal, 30-point sophomore season. The Avalanche, however, traded the former first-round pick to the Montreal Canadiens for the 31st and 37th picks at the 2023 Draft. The Canadiens signed him for an average annual value (AAV) of $2.9 million over four years.
Barrett Hayton is another good comparison regarding his age and production. Just 23 years old, the former fifth-overall pick in 2018 signed a deal with the Arizona Coyotes last offseason valued at $1.775 per season for just two years following a 10-goal, 24-point sophomore campaign. However, those totals came from just a 60-game NHL season; in 82 games, that would have worked out to 14 goals and 33 points, which is much closer to Newhook and Pinto’s totals.
But goal-scorers are much more highly regarded in the NHL, at least when it comes to contracts, which brings me to Josh Anderson. A 29-year-old grinding right winger, he’s less similar to Pinto than either Newhook or Hayton, but his production is remarkably close to the Senators’ young center and can be used to predict Pinto’s future value. Since playing his first full NHL season in 2016-17, he’s been a consistent 20-goal scorer apart from a single 27-goal season in 2018-19, which largely influenced his current seven-year, $5.5 million contract.
Right now, Pinto is stuck as the Senators’ third-best center behind Norris and Tim Stutzle. That’s likely to change soon, though, as Norris has already had two surgeries on his shoulder and has struggled to stay healthy over a full season, while first-line winger Claude Giroux is unlikely to play past his current contract, which will end when he’s 37 years old. Both points will drive up Pinto’s value since he projects to be an important piece to this Senators roster. But right now, he has just a single productive season under his belt. Newhook and Hayton, on the other hand, had two seasons of production before they signed their first real contracts.
However, Anderson signed his first contract, a three-year deal with an AAV of $1.85, right after his first full NHL season in which he played 78 games and scored 17 goals and 29 points. The next season saw him put up very similar totals – 19 goals and 30 points. If Pinto remains a third-line center and continues to play roughly 16 minutes a night, then it’s fair to assume that he’ll put up similar totals to his rookie season. Thus, a two-year bridge deal valued at around $1.85 million would be more than fair, allowing Pinto to prove he can sustain his 20-goal pace and allow him to cash in when the deal expires and the Senators will have some more cap freedom.
Where Will Cap Relief Come From?
So, if we assume that Pinto deserves a $1.85 million contract, then the Senators will need to clear at least $1 million worth of cap space to afford him. The current popular choice is to find a new home for Mathieu Joseph, who had a disappointing 2022-23 season after signing a $2.95 million deal at the start of the season. There was a lot of optimism when he was acquired from the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2021-22 and proceeded to score 12 points in 11 games to close out the season. He was also a former teammate of Thomas Chabot on the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League’s (QMJHL) Saint John Sea Dogs, which won the league championship in 2016-17.
But Joseph followed up his initial performance with just three goals and 18 points in 56 games and by being one of the worst possession players on the team who appeared in at least 50 games. Plus, his behaviour suffered, leading to several notable scratches throughout the season. His expected plus/minus, measuring where shots came from when he was on the ice, was also painfully low, sitting second last at minus-4.8. It’s worth mentioning that he was primarily used as a defensive specialist, but even in that capacity, he was far from the Senators’ best option, leading many to consider him overpaid. Trading him would open up a hole in the bottom six, but that could be filled by one of the team’s capable youngsters, like Egor Sokolov or newcomer Jiri Smejkal.
Another option that would generate more interest in the trade market is Erik Brannstrom, who just re-signed a one-year, one-way deal with an AAV of $2 million. The undersized defenceman has had a long, rough road to finding his place on the team, but he’s made plenty of growth since coming over in the Mark Stone trade in 2018-19. Despite his progress, he’s been a popular trade candidate among Senators’ fans, who feel that the team has better options on defence, namely Tyler Kleven. But Jacob Bernard-Docker and Lassi Thomson have also been trying to secure a roster spot for several years, and moving Brannstrom would finally allow one of them to play a full season in the NHL.
Aside from Joseph and Brannstrom, the Senators don’t have many other trade options to open up cap space. Artem Zub makes $4.6 million, but moving him would create a massive hole on defence that the team could not fill with a prospect. Dominik Kubalik, who was one of the main pieces acquired in the controversial DeBrincat trade, makes an easily-moveable $2.5 million, but it’s unlikely the Senators would want to move him so soon after bringing him in unless the deal was too good to turn down.
However, the Senators don’t have a lot of time left if they want Pinto to report to training camp in September. Contract hold-outs are a regular occurrence across the NHL, but there’s no reason to believe that the two sides are locked in a contract battle. Rather, Ottawa simply doesn’t have money and unless they can move one of their roster players, they won’t be able to sign him. Although the addition of Tarasenko will make the team more competitive, losing Pinto for any amount of time will hurt their chances to make a shot at the playoffs.
