The Ottawa Senators have dug a hole for themselves, sitting in seventh place in the Atlantic Division with a 3-7-0 record in their last 10 matchups. Now six points back of the division’s third-place Boston Bruins, they face a tough climb back into playoff contention, especially given the teams they’ll face heading into Christmas and the new year.
Here’s a look at how deep that hole is, what it will take to climb out of it, and what needs to change in their play.
Where the Senators Stand
To clinch one of the three Atlantic Division playoff spots, the Senators will likely need at least 100 points. That means, from now to the end of the season, they’ll need to notch another 68 points in their remaining 51 games for a points percentage (PTS%) of about .650. To put that into perspective, among teams in the Atlantic last season, only the Toronto Maple Leafs notched a PTS% that high.
To take a wild-card spot, Ottawa would probably need at least 95 points, meaning they’d need to notch a PTS% of about .600 from here on in. Last season, only 10 of the NHL’s 32 teams played at that level or better. What’s more, the Senators now sit two to three games out of a wild card spot behind the likes of the Montreal Canadiens, Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Rangers. They can’t afford to allow that gap to widen further.
After 31 games, the Senators have a PTS% of .516. At some point, you are what the numbers say you are, and what they say about the Senators now is that they are barely more than a .500 hockey club. That’s not remotely good enough to qualify for the postseason.
What the Senators Face Heading Into Christmas and the New Year
At Christmas, competitive intensity in the NHL takes a big jump. Opponents get tougher as teams on the bubble desperately try to win the points they need to remain in the playoff race. Those with a grip on a playoff berth fight hard to tighten it.
What the Senators do in their next 10 games will likely determine their season, and those matchups won’t be easy. Four of their opponents are divisional rivals, including the Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres, who are as desperate as the Senators to claw their way out of the bottom half of the division. The other two are the Boston Bruins and Detroit Red Wings, both looking to cement their claim on one of the division’s three playoff spots.
Only two of their next 10 opponents have fewer points than the Senators. Five of them were assigned better odds of making the playoffs than the Senators by Puckpedia.
Here’s my take on what the Senators face in their next 10 games:
| Senators’ Opponents from Dec. 14 – Jan. 5 | Probability of a Senators Win |
| Winnipeg Jets (two games), Columbus Blue Jackets | High |
| Penguins, Sabres, Chicago Blackhawks | 50/50 |
| Red Wings, Bruins, Washington Capitals, Maple Leafs | Low |
If this chart is right, then in their next 10 contests, the Senators have three games in the proverbial bag and two in which they have an even shot at winning. If the Senators took all three of the games in which they are judged to have high odds of winning and one of two in which they have 50/50 odds of winning, they’ll add eight points to their season total. To hit their .600 PTS% target, they’ll need to take half the points up for grabs in their four games against the Maple Leafs, Red Wings, Capitals and Bruins. That won’t be easy given the calibre of those teams and what’s on the line for them.
What the Senators Must Do to Salvage the Playoffs
The Return of Thomas Chabot and Shane Pinto
As Bruce Garrioch pointed out recently, the Senators are a different team without Chabot on their blue line, and he’s out for the foreseeable future (from Bruce Garrioch, ‘Ottawa Senators are a different team without an injured Thomas Chabot,’ The Ottawa Citizen, 12/11/25). What that means is Jake Sanderson will have to continue to log big minutes on the back end, and other blueliners will need to step up their game. The question is, can they?
Shane Pinto is listed as day-to-day, but if he’s out of the lineup for an extended period, his absence will be a drag on the Senators’ point production. Prior to his lower-body injury, he rivalled Drake Batherson and Dylan Cozens for second place in goals and was a key piece down the middle in the bottom six and on special teams.
Senators’ Goaltending Must Step Up
Starting goalie Linus Ullmark hasn’t been good enough over his 23 starts this season, registering a save percentage (SV%) of .877 and a goals-against average (GAA) of 3.05. His understudy, Leevi Merilianen, has numbers that are just as underwhelming. The tandem has the worst combined SV% in the NHL.
It’s unlikely president of hockey operations and general manager Steve Staios (GM) will be able to upgrade his team’s goaltending with a trade. Goalies are hard to come by on the open market. What’s more, there’s no talent in Belleville now that could step in and offer backup goaltending better than what Merilainen is offering.
It’s why Staios doubled down on his puck-stopping duo at a Nov. 10 presser, saying, “I believe in Linus, the team believes in Linus. I think if you look at goaltending around the league, some of the top goaltenders go through stretches where they’re not getting the results that they want.”
He said that over a month ago, and I wonder what he thinks now. He must realize that unless his team’s goaltending improves quickly, the slog to a postseason appearance will soon become much harder.
The Senators’ Penalty Kill Must Improve
The Senators’ penalty kill (PK) is as concerning as their goaltending. The Senators’ penalty kill percentage (PK%) after 31 games is the second worst in the NHL, at 69.8%. Last season, it was 77.4%, good for 19th in the league. The Senators have allowed 26 power-play goals this season. The NHL average is 19.
Problems with the PK appeared at the beginning of the campaign, and so far, the Senators haven’t been able to fix them. The coaching staff will have to come up with answers soon. A smothering PK is the hallmark of many Stanley Cup champions, and the Senators don’t have anything close.
Senators Need More Goals
Much was written last season about the Senators’ anemic goal production, ranked, as it was, at 19th in the league, averaging 2.95 goals per game. Things haven’t improved much so far this season, with the Senators ranked 18th in the league with an average of 3.06 goals per game. The only bright spot on scoring is their power-play percentage of 26.26%, compared to the league average of 20.28%, putting them third in the NHL.
However, a look at the team’s advanced metrics suggests the Senators’ offence still isn’t dangerous enough. After 31 games, they have an expected goals for (xGF) of 63 – well below the league average of 66.5. They’ve had 658 scoring chances – also well below the league average of 668. This points to problems in the way the team is creating offence – they’re just not getting enough dangerous shots. They’ve notched 238 high-danger scoring chances to this point – below the league average of 243.
Related: Senators Must Find a Way to Win One-Goal Games
That’s not surprising since, overall, they are taking too many shots from the perimeter. Too many harmless point shots and shots taken without traffic in front of the net mean far too few high-danger scoring chances. They also have fewer controlled offensive zone entries and poor puck cycling. The team often seems unable to force defensive zone breakdowns.
A low xGF can often mean that a team’s top stars aren’t creating enough elite chances. In Ottawa’s case, that’s understandable given that captain Brady Tkachuk was out of the lineup for 20 games. He is a virtuoso at creating the kind of havoc in front of the net that results in goals. Still, the team’s top five goal-scorers – Tim Stutzle, Shane Pinto, Dylan Cozens, Drake Batherson and Michael Amadio all have an xGF lower than their actual goals.
Senators Must Turn Their Play Around to Save Season – Now
The Senators are simply not a playoff contender despite the high hopes their fans had for them last month when they jockeyed for a spot at the top of the Atlantic. To salvage their lofty hopes of a playoff spot next spring, their play needs to turn around – now.
