With seven-straight seasons without making the playoffs, no one is going to call the Ottawa Senators contenders. They have done work to positively impact their chances, but nothing is guaranteed. Just making the playoffs is a good goal to set in the 2024-25 season, but let’s check in on how close — or far — the Senators are to contending for the Stanley Cup.
Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic created a “Stanley Cup Checklist,” and here we will take a look at just how far the Senators are from meeting those requirements.
With research stemming back to the Chicago Blackhawks’ 2010 Stanley Cup Championship, Luszczyszyn tracked the positional trends that each Stanley Cup Champion had on their roster and how many impactful players they had. The list he created is as follows:
- An elite first-line center
- An elite first-line winger
- Two more top-line-caliber wingers in the top six
- One more top-line-caliber center for the second line
- Two more top-six-caliber forwards in the middle six
- An elite No. 1 defenseman to play in the top pair
- One more No. 1-caliber defenseman to play behind him
- A top-pairing-caliber defenseman for the second pair
- Another top-pairing-caliber defenseman for a soft-minutes third-pair
- A top-10-caliber starting goaltender
(from “The Athletic, “Cup Checklist: Analyzing the rosters from the last decade of champions,” The Athletic, September 21, 2020)
An Elite First-Line Center – ✅
After taking a step back in 2023-24, Tim Stutzle is still an elite first-line center. His production dropped by 20 points, but after the season he said that he had a lingering wrist injury (suffered in the fourth game of the season) and an aggravated shoulder injury dating back to his dominant 2022-23 season. Injuries aren’t always a good excuse, but it is undeniable his play was impacted by them, and Stutzle wore kinesiology tape up his neck for a large part of the season to help support the muscles in his upper back and shoulders. He was injured, but not badly enough to keep him out of the lineup. However, the expectation is that both will be treated and healed by next season.
His production, while still flirting with a point-per-game, needs to be closer to 90 points or better. He isn’t strong enough defensively to make up for a drop in production, but he is still an elite first-line center.
An Elite First-Line Winger – ✅
Brady Tkachuk finished the season ninth in scoring among left-wingers and 14th among all wingers. His production, like Stutzle’s, took a step back last season, and he was still among the best scorers. His 37 goals ranked 19th in the league, and his physicality, shot quantity, and ability to draw into the faceoff dot and be successful are some of the things that make Tkachuk an elite winger.
Scoring 35-plus goals and 74-plus points in each of the last two seasons, and finishing third in hits and fourth in shots in 2023-24, Tkachuk does a bit of everything. He was also second in penalty minutes, but that isn’t something to brag about. If Tkachuk can spend less time in the box and more time producing, he will take another big step forward in his game. Even with all of those penalties, he is elite and fits the bill.
Two More Top-Line-Caliber Wingers in the Top Six – ❌
Outside of Tkachuk, the team has no high-end group of wingers. Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson would be the only two in this conversation, but neither of them is a top-line-caliber winger at this point.
Giroux’s drop in production and defensive play could be impacted by the team’s overall lack of success, but at 36 years old, his age is likely impacting his game more. There is no doubt Giroux is still a great asset and fits well in the top six, but to call him a top-line-caliber winger would be a stretch.
As for Batherson, there is still a chance he could prove to be one of these players, but after setting a career-high of 66 points in 2023-24, he still struggled defensively. He is getting better away from the puck, and this was his first fully-healthy season after a high-ankle sprain kept him out of the second half of 2021-22. As he stated, he was still facing lingering effects from it in 2022-23, so there is still a chance he will break out and become an 80-point player who is more responsible defensively.
One More Top-Line-Caliber Center for the Second Line – ❌
For a few years, it looked like Josh Norris would fit this role. After his 35-goal campaign, he earned an eight-year deal and looked like a future number-one center, but injuries have derailed his career up to this point.
There is still time to bounce back, but after missing all but eight games in 2022-23, the hope was that he would be good to go and regain his form in 2023-24. He wasn’t ready to start training camp and missed the first three games of the season, and another shoulder injury led to him missing the final 24 games. His 30 points in 50 games weren’t as promising as hoped, but there is still a chance that if he remains healthy, he could get his play back to where it was.
The next best option is Shane Pinto, who isn’t quite top-line-caliber yet. It has been a bumpy road so far, missing most of the 2021-22 with a shoulder injury, then having a strong 25-point rookie season, followed by a contract stalemate, then a 41-game suspension for violating the league’s sports-wagering rules. His final 41 games of the 2023-24 season were promising as he posted 27 points and displayed a strong two-way game. With a contract secured, and a full training camp and preseason ahead, Pinto should be at full speed heading into 2024-25, and this could be a huge season for his development. For now, he is better suited as a middle-six center.
Two More Top-Six-Caliber Forwards in the Middle Six – ✅
If not top-line-caliber wingers, Giroux or Batherson are certainly top-six material. If the Senators could add another top-line-caliber winger to play in the top-six, especially in that second-line left-wing spot, they would be in a much better position.
Related: Senators’ David Perron Was an Ideal Free Agency Signing
The Senators’ right-wing depth is weak after these two players, and especially as he ages, Giroux’s time should be limited to a middle-six spot where he could be much more effective.
An Elite No. 1 Defenseman to Play in the Top Pair – ✅
It may be a bit of a reach to call Jake Sanderson an elite number-one defenseman at this point, but he could arguably be right at the threshold.
His play is fantastic, there is no doubt about it. Ar just 21 years old, scoring at a 35-point average in his first two seasons, with excellent skating and strong defending, he is close. If you don’t think he is there just yet, he likely will be in 2024-25.
With stability in the rest of the defensive group, there won’t be a ton of experimenting with pairings this upcoming season, at least not as extensively as in 2023-24.
One More No. 1-Caliber Defenseman to Play Behind Him – ❌
This could change very quickly, depending on how Thomas Chabot plays this season. He has shown he can be a number-one defenseman, but he didn’t show much of that in 2023-24. He had solid production with 30 points in 51 games but struggled with injuries, and his defending was subpar. There is a chance he proves this statement wrong and does show he can still play to the level of a true number-one defenseman.
The key for Chabot is to have a player like Nick Jensen beside him. With several different defensive partners through the last few seasons, few have been anywhere close to what Chabot needs other than Artem Zub, who is now likely the full-time partner for Sanderson, and Dylan DeMelo, who has been away from the Senators since the 2019 Trade Deadline. Chabot has played with a number of players that didn’t allow him to thrive, including Nikita Zaitsev for long periods of time.
A Top-Pairing-Caliber Defenseman for the Second Pair – ✅
If you don’t consider Chabot a number-one defenseman, which is fair, he is certainly a top-pairing defenseman. His play, even this past season, is still top-pair quality. Most teams would be happy with Chabot on their first pair, especially in a more limited role on the second pair.
A Top-Pairing-Caliber Defenseman for Soft-Minutes Third Pair – ❌
The Senators’ third-pair is still up in the air, but one thing is certain, they will not have a top-pairing-caliber defenseman on it.
The three most likely candidates are Tyler Kleven, Travis Hamonic, and Jacob Bernard-Docker. None of those players should be any higher than a third-pair defenseman, and there is an argument none should even be everyday NHLers. Kleven might still need some developing, Bernard-Docker cleared waivers last season, and Hamonic is only still around because of his no-move clause and veteran presence.
A Top-10-Caliber Starting Goaltender – ✅
Linus Ullmark, who was just acquired by the Senators, has been a top-10-caliber goaltender for several years. Unfortunately, poor team defense and a lack of a quality defense group have made Senators goaltenders look worse than they were.
Ullmark won the Vezina in 2023 with the Boston Bruins. Will the streak of good goaltenders playing poorly in Ottawa now end?
Staios Still has Lots of Work to Do
According to his checklist, Staios must find two more top-line-caliber wingers, another top-line center, and two more high-end defensemen. That is a ton of work, and while most teams don’t have everything on this checklist, the Senators still have several items to check off before they get close to contending for the Stanley Cup.
