Two Games In, Some Maple Leafs Numbers Are Hard to Ignore

There’s always a temptation to look at the standings, the goals and the points after two games and start drawing conclusions. This early in the season, that’s probably a mistake.

Two games is a tiny sample size. A couple of bounces can change the story pretty quickly. Still, there’s nothing wrong with looking under the hood a bit, especially when the numbers tell us something we might not see as clearly with the eye test.

Using five-on-five numbers from Natural Stat Trick, here’s a look at the four Toronto Maple Leafs driving play most effectively through the opening two games—and five who haven’t.

The numbers are based on each player’s share of shot attempts, shots, scoring chances, high-danger chances and expected goals while he’s on the ice.

Jack Roslovic Is Driving the Bus

If there’s one name that jumps off the page, it’s Jack Roslovic. Roslovic leads the Maple Leafs in five-on-five Corsi at 64.9 percent. He’s also first in shots at 73.9 percent, second in scoring chances at 82.4 percent and first in expected goals at 77.8 percent.

That’s a pretty impressive collection of numbers for a player who probably wasn’t entering the season as the first name anybody would mention when talking about the Maple Leafs’ offensive drivers.

Auston Matthews is second in Corsi at 61.4 percent and second in shots at 72 percent. He’s even winning 56.5% of his faceoffs. Easton Cowan is third in Corsi at 60.5 percent, first in high-danger chances at 87.5 percent and third in expected goals at 66.9 percent.

Kirill Marchenko is another name worth circling. He leads the Maple Leafs in scoring-chance percentage at a remarkable 84.2 percent, is second in high-danger chances at 84.2 percent and second in expected goals at 70.4 percent.

So, after two games, the numbers suggest that Roslovic, Matthews, Cowan and Marchenko have been doing a pretty good job of pushing the play in the right direction. That doesn’t mean they’ll finish the season there. It simply gives us something interesting to watch.

The Numbers Aren’t as Kind to Everyone

On the other side of the ledger, a few players are struggling badly in the early possession numbers. Zack MacEwen has a 20 percent Corsi and a zero percent share of the shots and expected goals while he’s on the ice at five-on-five. Brandon Duhaime has a 21.7 percent expected-goals share and just 31 percent of the shots.

Teddy Blueger also shows up repeatedly in the wrong column. His Corsi is 20.8 percent, his shot share is 26.7 percent and his scoring-chance percentage is 28.6 percent. Gavin McKenna’s early numbers are also interesting. He has a 28.3 percent Corsi and a 28 percent scoring-chance percentage.

Then there’s William Nylander. Nylander has been one of Toronto’s premier offensive players for years, so seeing him with just a 34.2 percent share of scoring chances and a 23.2 percent expected-goals share after two games certainly catches the eye.

But this is where the “after two games” warning really matters. Nobody should be making big judgments about Nylander—or McEwen, Blueger, McKenna or anybody else—based on 120 minutes of hockey.

What Do We Make of It?

For me, the most interesting part of these numbers isn’t really the worst performers. It’s the players near the top. Roslovic is driving play. Matthews is driving play. Cowan is also playing well. Marchenko is driving play.

That’s an encouraging group because it suggests the Maple Leafs aren’t relying entirely on one line or one superstar to create offence. The other interesting thing is that the numbers give us something to watch over the next couple of weeks.

Do Roslovic and Marchenko continue to drive chances? Does Cowan maintain those high-danger numbers? Does Nylander’s expected-goal share climb back toward where we would normally expect it to be?

That’s the fun part of looking at the numbers this early. They aren’t telling us what the Maple Leafs will be. They’re giving us a few clues about what to watch next.