Goaltending can make all the difference in hockey. If you have a goalie in the Vezina conversation, chances are you’re sitting in a playoff spot and close to the top of the league standings. This season’s Vezina chase has a runaway favorite in Connor Hellebuyck, but who else is in the conversation to be a finalist?
5. Mackenzie Blackwood
This was once a tough sell, but Mackenzie Blackwood has been great since getting traded to the Colorado Avalanche. He has a .913 SV% across 37 appearances with the Avalanche, but it’s not like he played poorly with the San Jose Sharks before the trade; he posted a .909 SV% with the Sharks.
Related: 2024-25 Calder Trophy Tracker: First Edition
Between both teams, Blackwood is up to a .911 SV% for the season. He’s saved 13.3 goals above expected, ranked 21st league-wide, and has a five-on-five SV% of .914. He has seemingly solved the Avalanche’s goaltending concerns, and though I’d be surprised if he ends up a finalist, he’s been good enough to be in the conversation.
4. Darcy Kuemper
A late-entrant into the Vezina race, Darcy Kuemper has quietly had an excellent season for the Los Angeles Kings. He’s played in 49 games and has a .920 save percentage while saving 21.3 goals above expected. That latter number ranks sixth league-wide among qualified goaltenders, and most of his other underlying metrics are fantastic.
Kuemper has a five-on-five save percentage of .934, just .002 below Hellebuyck’s. His play has also been worth a wins above replacement (WAR) of 3.54, ranked sixth league-wide. I know the Kings play one of the most defensive systems in the NHL, but Kuemper has legitimately been great. He seems to fly under the radar most seasons, but these kinds of performances aren’t out of the norm for him.
3. Logan Thompson
The Washington Capitals have been one of the biggest surprises in the NHL this season, and goaltending is a significant reason for that. Logan Thompson has been outstanding, compiling an absurd 31-6-6 record and a .910 save percentage through 43 appearances. His underlying numbers have been fantastic as well.
Thompson has saved 26 goals above expected, ranked third in the NHL to Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevsky, and has a five-on-five SV% of .921. It’ll come down to games played for Thompson since the Capitals split starts 50/50 between him and Charlie Lindgren. I could see voters (NHL GMs) having a bit of hesitancy nominating him as a finalist with only 43-44 games played, especially since Kuemper will have somewhere around 50 appearances.
2. Andrei Vasilevskiy
Andrei Vasilevskiy is back after struggling during the 2023-24 season when he posted a .900 SV%. Through 62 games this season, he’s totaled a .920 SV% while saving 27.8 goals above expected. Most importantly, he has a quality start percentage of .645, one of the best marks in the NHL.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are still a good team, but they’re not a total wagon now, so they need high-end goaltending from Vasilevskiy. He’s held up his end of the bargain and will likely be a Vezina finalist once the awards are revealed, even though he’s unlikely to win.
1. Connor Hellebuyck
Hellebuyck is the runaway favorite to win the Vezina Trophy, even with Vasilevskiy making a run at him over the final month of the 2024-25 season. He’s 46-12-3 across 62 games played and has a .924 SV% while saving an outrageous 37.8 goals above expected.
In an era of goaltending where the league-average save percentage sits around .900, Hellebuyck posting these numbers is more than impressive. It will take a lot to supplant him as the favorite for the Vezina, and he’s been so good that you shouldn’t be surprised if voters give him some consideration for the Hart Trophy. To build on that, he has a WAR of 6.31. You can do the math, but that’s worth an additional 12 points in the standings. I don’t think he’ll win the Hart, but he will get votes for it.
Hellebuyck Isn’t Losing
Other goalies who could receive votes in the Vezina race are Jake Oettinger and Filip Gustavsson. Gustavsson has been solid this season, posting a .910 SV% while saving 15.1 goals above expected, though he has fallen off slightly over the last month. Meanwhile, Oettinger has also played well, totaling a .912 save percentage while saving 16.2 goals above expected. His 36-16-2 record won’t hurt him, either.
Anthony Stolarz and Linus Ullmark were having outstanding seasons, but injuries hurt their Vezina bids; the same is true of Jacob Markström. Either way, this race is over and has been over for months. Thompson and Vasilevskiy made it a bit more interesting down the stretch, but Hellebuyck isn’t losing.
Advanced stats from MoneyPuck
