What Cutter Gauthier’s Deal Will Say About the Matthew Knies Contract

Toronto Maple Leafs fans have plenty of reasons to feel good about what’s going to happen with Cutter Gauthier negotiations in Anaheim, even though the Ducks winger has nothing to do with the Leafs on the ice. The reason is simple: Matthew Knies signed a six-year extension with a $7.75 million AAV back in the summer of 2025, and Gauthier — a somewhat similar player, just a year or two behind him in the process — is on the verge of signing a deal that could pay him double that number per season.

Gauthier remains unsigned as a restricted free agent, but the rumored deal he’s likely to sign in Anaheim seems to be creeping up higher and higher, with insiders now pointing to something in the $15-17 million AAV range. One report (although it seems unlikely) is that Gauthier won’t take a penny less than the $18 million AAV Leo Carlsson just got from Anaheim after his offer-sheet saga with Philadelphia.

How good is Knies’ deal looking now?

Comparing Knies and Gauthier

Knies and Gauthier aren’t exactly the same player, but there are some similarities that are hard to ignore. Both are big-bodied left-wingers who play a power game and finish plays around the net rather than acting as playmakers. Gauthier just wrapped a monster breakout season, putting up 41 goals and 28 assists for 69 points in 76 games, with 11 power-play goals and seven game-winners mixed in. Knies, for his part, set new career highs of his own this past season, scoring 23 goals to go with a career-best 43 assists for 66 points in 79 games, after posting 29 goals and 58 points the year before that.

Reports peg Gauthier as more of a goal-scorer than Knies. Sportsnet placed him alongside the league’s top young talent as a bona fide 40-goal sniper. He loves to fire the puck from anywhere. NHL Edge has him in the 99th percentile for hardest shot.

Knies is more of a prototypical, high-skill power forward. He prefers to score most of his goals from in front of the net, tipping in pucks or crashing and banging for rebounds.

Both entered restricted free agency without arbitration rights, and both are integral pieces for their franchises moving forward.

Gauthier is 22; Knies is 23. Neither is a finished product, and both teams are betting the next several seasons will have both of them trending upward.

The Salary Cap Is Hitting The Ducks Hard

Understanding that there are slight differences in the style of game they play, the point here is that one team is about to get creamed by the rising salary cap while the other timed their extension just right (or, at the very least, got lucky).

Gauthier is negotiating in the shadow of the Carlsson deal, which Anaheim only agreed to after Philadelphia forced their hand with an offer sheet. It completely reset the market for young forwards, and Gauthier’s camp knows the Ducks have almost no room to lowball him.

Knies, by contrast, signed his extension before that reset took place. His deal came together quietly over a summer weekend, alongside John Tavares’ extension, with none of the drama or escalating rumor mill that’s followed Gauthier. In fact, unlike Gauthier, who is speculated to take as much as he can, Knies took a discount to stay where he is.

At the time, $7.75 million looked like a team-friendly discount. Now? It could turn out to be one of the best deals in the NHL. If a similar forward (with a slightly different style of game) blows past him and signs for $15 million, that Knies deal will look like a steal.

The Maple Leafs Did Good on Knies

Whatever number Gauthier ultimately signs for, the story here is about timing. Toronto locked in a core piece before the market caught up to what players like him are now worth. The deal will only get better as time goes by. And, if Gauthier signs for five years, Anaheim is set to pay top dollar twice. Sure, if Knies keeps getting better, he will eventually be a much more expensive player. However, depending on the terms involved in these respective deals, he may always fall under what Gauthier is making, and by quite a bit.