Where Do Flyers Go After Failed Offer Sheet for Leo Carlsson?

On Thursday afternoon, the Anaheim Ducks decided to retain Leo Carlsson after the Philadelphia Flyers tendered an offer sheet to acquire him. Danny Briere was a player for the Flyers when then-general manager Paul Holmgren signed Shea Weber to a 14-year offer sheet in 2012, a contract that expired just two days before this one was submitted.

This was always the most likely outcome, even though the Flyers tried their best to pry Carlsson from Anaheim to be their best center since Claude Giroux. The ripple effects for the Ducks, the Flyers, and the rest of the NHL remain to be seen, but the biggest potential one was taken off the table by general manager Pat Verbeek about 24 hours before Anaheim had to make its decision.

It was a valiant effort by Briere, but it fell short of achieving its main goal: making the Flyers a better team. That goal remains in place, just as it would’ve if Carlsson traveled east, just with more weight on it. With two months of offseason still on the horizon, the more pressing question is how Briere and company pivot from the disappointing decision.

Route 1: Offer Sheet 2.0

Many Philadelphia fans have some natural impulsiveness, and this will be where many of their minds go. But it’s also the most unlikely option.

There are still quality restricted free agents available, but it’s hard to imagine any of them being viable candidates. One is Connor Bedard, but he is the heart and soul of the Chicago Blackhawks. So, a team could sign him to the maximum $20.8 million cap hit, and Chicago would still match. He’s also injured right now.

Adam Fantilli is the most comparable situation to Carlsson. He’s a good, young center on a small-market team, and the Columbus Blue Jackets don’t have the recent playoff success the Ducks achieved last season. However, Columbus is similarly opposed to considering not matching an offer sheet from any team, let alone a division rival. Fantilli also isn’t as good as Carlsson. He’s got potential to be a true first-line star, but he’s not nearly as much of a lock to reach that level.

There’s also a reason only one team in the salary cap era has signed multiple offer sheets in the same offseason, and the team that did that (the St. Louis Blues) targeted the same team (the Edmonton Oilers) in both. Offer sheets are gaining wider acceptance in the NHL, but throwing them around like candy might not be as well received as one legitimate offer. It would also reek of desperation and could prove short-sighted, with no one (not even Carlsson) single-handedly separating the Flyers from contention.

Route 2: The Trade Market

This is the more plausible route in both the short and long term. In the former, though, it’s unlikely to have the same impact as Carlsson.

There is a first-line center on the block in Dylan Larkin, who requested a trade from the Detroit Red Wings last month. However, part of the reason Larkin hasn’t been moved yet is the limited number of teams he’s willing to go to, and with a full no-move clause, he holds significant control over his future destination. The Flyers are on the rise, but they aren’t on the same level as the teams Larkin wants to join, and his presence alone wouldn’t change that.

Detroit also wants NHL-ready talent in a trade for Larkin, which the Flyers probably wouldn’t prefer. They would’ve given up just draft picks for Carlsson. They might’ve had to move a player out to clear cap space, but that likely wouldn’t align with what the Red Wings want back. This is all conjecture anyway since Larkin doesn’t seem willing to come to Philadelphia at this point.

Beyond that, there’s not much else that stands out. Vincent Trocheck has already been moved. Robert Thomas isn’t in play anymore. Someone like Pavel Zacha or Shane Wright isn’t moving the needle; the Flyers have enough middle-six centers as is.

Route 3: The Waiting Game

The smart (but boring) option for the moment. Briere still has some work to do with Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale filing for arbitration. If the Flyers want to extend either player long-term, they have limited time to do so, with arbitration hearings taking place between July 20 and Aug. 1.

A year ago, it would’ve been shocking that both Larkin and Zach Werenski were openly available for trade at the same time. While Werenski is no longer on the market, he was legitimately available for a time. Given how quickly this year’s free agency class dried up before it even began, this summer has eased fears that the rising salary cap will permanently hinder the movement of star players.

It’s not the end of the world if the Flyers don’t come away with a shiny new toy this summer. Philadelphia is still in the build-up phase of its roster construction. If you can get someone who’s a fit for that build-up like Carlsson, then it makes sense to give up significant futures, but the Flyers still need more development from within before they can think about joining the NHL’s upper echelon.

The best thing to come from the Carlsson offer sheet is that it provides tangible proof that Briere doesn’t want to wait around forever and that he’s unafraid of making a big move. Briere hasn’t moved a single first-round pick (excluding trading up or down at the draft), yet he was prepared to move four for one player.

Making such a big splash showed Briere isn’t going to make perfect the enemy of great. But he can’t be okay with letting it be the enemy of great, either. The Flyers still have ample flexibility in terms of cap space and futures. They need to utilize both effectively to get to where they want to be.

Learning From the Past

When Holmgren signed Weber in 2012, his tenure as general manager had more good than bad. The Flyers made the playoffs in each of his first five full seasons, winning a series in four of them en route to two Eastern Conference Finals and a Stanley Cup Final appearance in 2010.

But it was mostly downhill from that point forward. He signed ill-fated contracts with Scott Hartnell, Vincent Lecavalier and Andrew MacDonald, none of which reached their end. Right before the offer sheet, he made two of his worst trades, including a historic mistake in shipping out Sergei Bobrovsky for a mediocre draft pick return and the one-for-one swap of James van Riemsdyk for Luke Schenn, a move that, like the Weber ploy, was supposed to boost the team’s crumbling defense.

Sometimes, the best moves for a general manager are the ones they don’t make. Briere has already learned that lesson from Torey Krug’s no-trade clause, the only reason Travis Sanheim wasn’t traded at the nadir of his value in 2023. Eventually, he will have to make a big acquisition like Carlsson. But like the attempt at Carlsson, Briere should do his best to ensure he does it on his terms.