If you’ve been around this team long enough, you start to recognize the rhythm of a Toronto Maple Leafs season the way an old musician recognizes the first three chords of a familiar song. The melody changes a bit from season to season.
Three offseasons ago, the franchise hired Brad Treliving as its new general manager. Two offseasons ago, Craig Berube came as the new head coach. This past offseason, Mitch Marner took his show on the road, and several new guys (with new DNA, we were told) showed up.
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While there were bursts of hope and even some new enthusiasm for the team’s chances, the refrain remains the same. Still, it didn’t take long for the hope to fade this season: just too many injuries and too few wins. Right now, the Maple Leafs are 25 games into the season and sit outside the postseason picture with an 11-11-3 record. But, as Maple Leafs fans, we still hope.
Suddenly, the Maple Leafs Drub a Winning Team in the Penguins on the Road
Surprise of surprises, after a 10-game stretch in which the team won only two and lost eight, they put on a great night (a 7-2 drubbing of the Pittsburgh Penguins on the road) that makes you believe this team might not be that bad. However, it doesn’t take that long before a reality check settles in and the uncomfortable memory of all the other nights that looked exactly like this before the floor dropped out.
(Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images)
Saturday’s win over the Penguins fit that pattern almost perfectly. Everything went right. The forecheck had teeth. The hits landed with purpose. The puck support below the goal line looked organized instead of accidental. And young Swedish goalie Dennis Hildeby played like a kid who knew exactly what opportunity he’d been given.
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Then you look across the ice, and another narrative sneaks in. Penguins goalie Arturs Silovs gave up four goals on ten shots. Perhaps the real story is that the Maple Leafs didn’t solve anything after all. Instead, they ran into a goalie having a night so rough that even the broadcast crew didn’t know how to spin it.
Are the Maple Leafs a Team Built on “Ifs” Instead of Habits?
This is where the old Maple Leafs DNA shows up again. One hot night from the depth players doesn’t mean they’ve discovered consistency. One strong defensive outing from Morgan Rielly doesn’t erase past defensive wobbles that keep resurfacing. And one quiet night from Philippe Myers doesn’t suddenly make him reliable.
(Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images)
This is the Maple Leafs identity fans have grown up with. The team is talented enough to impress in flashes, but unreliable enough that you hesitate to believe those flashes mean anything lasting.
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In the comments section of yesterday’s post, a reader (Jimmy D) captured it perfectly in his note. As he put it, this team is built on “ifs.” If the third line keeps contributing. If McMann keeps scoring. If Rielly settles down. If Matthews finds his scoring touch. If Woll can stay healthy. He made a great point, but even more lucidly, he laid out the dilemma of being a Maple Leafs fan.
New Season, Same Story — Just Different Characters
Every Leafs era has its own set of “ifs.” They don’t vanish; they change names. In 2019, it was, “If Nazem Kadri can stay disciplined.” In the bubble years: “If Frederik Andersen can steal one more.” Last season, it was “If the depth wingers can do something.” This season isn’t new; it’s just the same uncertainty wearing different jerseys.
And that’s why Saturday’s win can’t be treated as proof of anything. The next stretch of four games is the real test: the Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes, Montreal Canadiens, and Tampa Bay Lightning are looming. Florida, especially, seems to occupy free real estate in the Maple Leafs’ collective mind. And the Canadiens? Even when they come in on a losing streak, as they did more than a week ago, they always find a way to punch above their weight when Toronto shows up on the schedule.
If the Maple Leafs navigate that run well, perhaps then it’s time to talk about momentum. If not, Saturday becomes another bright one-off in a long string of them.
The Maple Leafs Fans’ Dilemma: Hope Without Trust
The reader’s final point stays with me — not because it’s harsh, but because it’s honest. “I’ve been fooled too many times,” he said. That isn’t cynicism; that’s survival. Fans who’ve lived through the full catalogue have developed a kind of emotional callus. They hope, sure, but they no longer trust.
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He predicts the Maple Leafs will be an 84–92-point team. That’s not a condemnation; it’s a recognition that this team rarely lives in the space between potential and delivery long enough to build anything stable. And that’s really the heart of the Maple Leafs conundrum. They give you enough to dream, then just enough inconsistency to make you feel a little silly for dreaming in the first place.
Until the bright nights become habits — and the exceptions become the rule — fans will stay where they’ve always been: hoping, but holding their breath.
[To those who read my posts and give me so much more to consider, thanks.]
