The Winnipeg Jets (56-22-4) will tangle with the St. Louis Blues (44-30-8) in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2019.
It may seem at first glance that the Jets, who won the Presidents’ Trophy and captured 116 points, are heavy favourites over the Blues, who finished in the second Western Conference wild-card spot and captured 96. It won’t be an easy series for Winnipeg, though, both because they crashed out of the playoffs in the first round in both of the past two years and because St. Louis was one of the NHL’s hottest teams since the 4 Nations Face-Off, going 19-4-2 out of the break.
The Jets defeated the Blues in three of four regular-season matchups this season, but one win was in a shootout, one was by one goal, and one was by two with an empty netter. This series, slated to start Saturday at Canada Life Centre, will by no means be a cakewalk.
Here, we’ll dive into three key things the Jets must do conquer the Blues in the series and finally get over the first-round hump.
1: Get Balanced Offense with Ehlers and Vilardi Out
With Nikolaj Ehlers (lower body) and Gabriel Vilardi (upper body) unavailable for the start of the postseason and their return dates unclear, the Jets needs to get offensive contributions from more than just their top two producers in Kyle Connor (41 goals, 97 points) and Mark Scheifele (39 goals, 87 points.)
The Jets got pretty consistent depth scoring throughout the season, with 12 players reaching multiple digits in goals and 11 players recording 30-plus points. The Blues were no slouch in the depth-scoring department either, with eight players with 10-plus goals and 10 players with 30-plus points. Whichever team has the better four-line attack will likely come out on top.
Players such as Mason Appleton, Alex Iafallo, Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry, Cole Perfetti, and Vladislav Namestnikov must chip in to compensate for Ehlers and Vilardi’s absence at even strength and on the power play. Ehlers and Vilardi finished with a combined 51 goals and 124 points and are members of the strong top power-play unit when healthy.
Offense from the blue line, something the Jets have focused on getting for past three seasons especially, will also be crucial. They have the advantage in that department, with their top-two point producing defensemen in Josh Morrissey (62 points) and Neal Pionk (39 points) sitting above the Blues two most-offensively adept defensemen in Cam Fowler (36 points between the Blues and Anaheim Ducks) and Colton Parayko (36 points.)
2: Focus on Stout Defensive Game
The Jets should use their final regular-season clash with the Blues as a blueprint on how to handle them in the series. In that April 7 contest, the Jets put on a masterclass in stifling structure, limiting the Blues to just 15 shots and very few high-danger chances in a 3-1 victory that snapped the Blues’ franchise-record 12-game winning streak.
“I think that’s how we want to play,” Jets forward Morgan Barron said postgame. “That’s a really good team in transition. We kind of knew that when we’re at the top of our game, we’re able to stymie that the best we could. Our D just gapped up really nicely and our forwards tracked back really well.” (From ‘Jets rewrite record book,’ Winnipeg Free Press, April 7, 2025.)
While the Jets scored the fourth-most goals in the NHL this season, they need to remember that their true cornerstone of success is their strong commitment to team defence. Playoff games often take on a grindy nature, with each team knowing one miscue could be the difference between advancing and going home, and rarely feature a ton of space to wheel and deal.
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Former head coach Rick Bowness instilled the importance of every line looking the same without the puck, and Scott Arniel —Bowness’ associate coach for two seasons and now head coach — played a key role in helping his former boss instill an identity that is now well-established. The Jets allowed a league-low 191 goals this season to repeat as William M. Jennings winners and shut out their opponents 10 times.
The Jets need to avoid any temptation to sell out for offence or get into a track meet, because the Blues have a lot of players who can burn them such as Robert Thomas (21 goals, 81 points), Jordan Kyrou (36 goals, 70 points), and Dylan Holloway (26 goals, 63 points.)
“The buy-in from these guys the last couple years has been amazing,” Arniel said after the Jets defeated the Ducks 2-1 to cap their regular season. “It isn’t just defensive players. It’s your top players, your offensive guys. Your role players. It’s everybody believing in a certain way to play and that gives you the chance to win hockey games. You back it up with outstanding goaltenders. That makes it that much more difficult to play against us.”
We have seen just how bad the Jets can be when they forget about defense: when they abandoned their structure in first round of the playoffs last year against the Colorado Avalanche and tried to go blow-for-blow with them, they got completely crushed.
3: Win the Battle Between the Pipes
Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington slightly outdueled Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck in the 4 Nations Final, but Hellebuyck has a chance to laugh last and best.
Hellebuyck was excellent between USA’s pipes in the final against the Binnington-backstopped Canada, but suffered the hard-luck loss in overtime when his teammates inexplicably left Connor McDavid, of all people, wide open in the slot to rip home the winner. Binnington made some outstanding saves earlier in the extra frame to keep his team alive and pave the way for McDavid’s heroics.
Hellebuyck played in an otherworldly fashion this season and will easily win his second-straight and third-career Vezina Trophy thanks to his 47-12-3 record, 2.00 goals against average (GAA,) .925 save percentage (SV%,) eight shutouts, and 41.6 goals saved above expected (GSAx.) He is also getting a lot of chatter for his potential to be the first goalie to win the Hart Memorial Trophy since Carey Price in 2015.
Hellebuyck will not only be looking for some redemption for the 4 Nations loss and the 2019 first-round loss to then-rookie Binnington, but also some redemption from his poor performance last spring.
Despite putting up excellent numbers last regular season (numbers good enough to win him the Vezina,) Hellebuyck had a very rough time against the Avalanche, finishing with an ugly 5.23 GAA, .870 SV%, and a negative 5.0 GSAx in five games. Some of the blame for those numbers falls the poor defense his team played in front of him, but not all.
The Jets will need Hellebuyck to perform a lot closer to how he did in the regular season this time around to have a chance. Binnington, despite having a middling 2.69 GAA and .900 SV% in 56 games this season, is entering the playoffs hot with eight wins in his past 10 starts, so he’ll be tough to beat.
Game 1 of the series goes on Saturday, April 19 at Canada Life Centre. Puck drop is 5 p.m. CT.