Aside from goaltending, the New Jersey Devils have gotten the bulk of their offseason work done. They acquired Tyler Toffoli from the Calgary Flames for top-six scoring and strengthened their defensive depth with Colin Miller in a trade with the Dallas Stars.
With that, we can start turning our attention to the 2023-24 season. The Devils should have a pretty loaded team and will be a trendy pick to win the Metropolitan Division and even the Eastern Conference. With it being the end of July and the preseason still two months away, let’s begin a series of player previews, starting with Jesper Bratt.
Bratt’s 2022-23
After a breakout season in 2021-22, Bratt followed it up with the best season of his career in 2022-23. He played in all 82 games, finishing with a career-high 32 goals and tying a career-high in points with 73. With him facing restricted free agency again this summer, the two sides finally agreed to a long-term deal paying Bratt $7.875 million annually for the next eight years.
The Devils were right in giving Bratt the long-term deal that they did. He was the team’s third-most efficient five-on-five scorer this season, averaging 2.32 points per 60 minutes. That comes on the heels of him finishing second in five-on-five scoring to Fabian Zetterlund in 2021-22. Leaguewide, Bratt was a more efficient five-on-five scorer than Mika Zibanejad, Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Huberdeau.
For the second straight season, Bratt was one of the Devils’ most valuable players, finishing with a total goals above replacement (GAR) of 10.9. Though he has a reputation as more of a playmaker, he showed goal-scoring prowess this season. He tied Dawson Mercer for second in five-on-five goals with 20, trailing only Jack Hughes’ 28. That only added to his value this season.
Bratt was one of the NHL’s more efficient five-on-five scorers, averaging 1.08 goals per 60 minutes. That placed him ahead of forwards such as Tim Stützle, Kyle Connor and Artemi Panarin, to name a few. His shot was a weakness for the first few years of his career, but after two straight seasons of productive goal-scoring, that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore.
Bratt’s overall shooting percentage of 15.1 percent might have been a tad high, but he’s shot 12.5 and 12.6 percent at five-on-five over the last two seasons. Even if he doesn’t top 30 goals again, his scoring rates should be sustainable in 2023-24 since he’s one of the best five-on-five facilitators in the NHL.
Projections for Bratt’s 2023-24
Not much will change for Bratt on the 2023-24 Devils. He’ll play a top-six role alongside one of Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes, likely interchanging between the two centers when Ruff needs to shake up his line combinations. Even after the acquisition of Toffoli, expect Bratt to also remain on the first power-play unit.
Related: 4 Devils Breakout Candidates for 2023-24
In Evolving-Hockey’s player projections for the 2023-24 season, Bratt projects to finish with a total GAR of 12.5. That ranks 16th among all players, placing him ahead of Leon Draisaitl, Johnny Gaudreau and Hischier. It’s just a projection, of course, but he should be one of the Devils’ most valuable players once again.
Potential Linemates
Bratt, Hughes, and Toffoli
Though Bratt has primarily played right wing in his Devils tenure, he could shift to the left side if Toffoli — a right-handed shot — ends up on a line with him and Hughes. Toffoli isn’t the best skater, so having players like Bratt and Hughes as his linemates to help drive play and feed him scoring chances in the offensive zone should help.
Even if Toffoli doesn’t end up with Hughes and Bratt, there’s a good chance those two spend plenty of time together in 2023-24. They logged over 567 minutes together this past season, and the Devils crushed teams at five-on-five when they were linemates, posting a 63.58 xG%. Expect plenty of Hughes and Bratt together moving forward.
Meier, Hischier and Bratt
Bratt didn’t spend much time alongside Timo Meier after the Devils acquired him ahead of the trade deadline, but the results were encouraging. They totaled a 64.96 xG% in around 47 minutes together, and it carried over into the playoffs, particularly in the team’s first-round series against the New York Rangers.
The Devils didn’t score a goal when this trio was on the ice, but they thoroughly controlled play. Lines rarely, rarely stick together for all 82 games of the season, but it’d be a surprise if Ruff didn’t give this trio a look to start 2023-24.
Bratt Will Again Be One of the Devils’ Top Players
Bratt may not surpass 30 goals again, but he should get close, especially considering his role with the team. If he spends the majority of his time with Hughes and Toffoli, he could be in for quite a few assists since those two are high-volume shooters who can put the puck in the net.
But wherever Bratt ends up, he should be productive. Twenty-five to 30 goals and 70 points seem like a reasonable target for him, given his last two seasons. I know there are some concerns about his playoff performances, but he wasn’t as bad as it seemed.
Of players who played in all 12 playoff games, Bratt led the Devils in xG%. The team shot 4.35 percent with him on the ice at five-on-five, so there was some poor luck in his lack of production during the postseason. Having gained some experience, I’d expect better results from him in his next playoff appearance. Either way, expect Bratt to be one of the Devils’ top players in 2023-24.
* * *
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey