Reaching 20 goals and 50 points as a sophomore, Montreal Canadiens forward Juraj Slafkovsky “broke out” for all intents and purposes in 2023-24. However, despite being a No. 1 overall pick in 2022, he wasn’t exactly a perfect candidate to heading into last season following an underwhelming 10-point rookie campaign (39 games).
Amid suggestions the Canadiens should develop him in the American Hockey League, Slafkovsky even started off last season slowly, at a similar pace, with seven points in his first 29 games. Then obviously something switched on for him (following a permanent shift onto the first line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield).
Considering Slafkovsky’s draft pedigree, it’s probably hyperbolic to use him as an example that anything can happen. That’s arguably true of any of the below five names too, on this list of the likeliest Canadiens candidates to break out in 2024-25. Each has shown something up to this point that justifies their inclusion, while anyone else can theoretically unexpectedly grow by leaps and bounds instead to become a member of the core instead. Slafkovsky serves as proof of that, at least.
5. Arber Xhekaj
Defenseman Arber Xhekaj technically came from out of nowhere as an undrafted prospect to jump straight to the NHL in 2022-23, during which he played 51 games. Some may say that qualifies as him breaking out in and of itself. However, he’s never scored more than 13 points, even getting sent down to the AHL last season for an extended period of time.
By virtue of the fact Xhekaj is now on a newly signed one-way deal, he’s at least likelier to stay the length of the season in the NHL. It remains to be seen how he gets deployed though, as the Canadiens defenseman with the 10th-highest average ice time last season (15:56). Despite having noticeably improved his all-around ability, he could possibly end up the Habs’ seventh defenseman.
Related: Canadiens Must Reassess Seventh-Defenseman Needs for 2024-25
However, based on how Xhekaj got regular power-play time, he could also break out further to become a key offensive contributor. Even with just the potential to, he clearly remains in the team’s long-term plans, a fact reinforced by how he got a (slightly) higher cap hit than Justin Barron, who re-signed alongside him under similar circumstances as a fellow restricted free agent this offseason.
4. Justin Barron
Even so, Barron ranks higher here, due to a variety of factors. For starters, he’s simply got a higher ceiling, at least in terms of offensive production, with him having ranked second among Canadiens defensemen with seven goals last season, which, while significant, can’t be considered him breaking out all on its own (as he spent time in the AHL last season himself).
So, Barron remains on the cusp. However, on a one-way deal too, he’s probably making the Canadiens out of training camp, especially as he’s no longer exempt from waivers (unlike Xhekaj). Something else he’s got going for him that Xhekaj doesn’t is his right-handed shot. There’s just more roster room on the right than on the left, where the latter must contend for ice time with Mike Matheson, Kaiden Guhle, Jordan Harris and Jayden Struble. Barron really just has David Savard (as the only other natural rightie who’s a virtual lock to stick in the NHL next season).
3. Joshua Roy
There is little room for debate: Joshua Roy showed he belonged in the NHL last season, as one of the team’s most valuable forwards following the All-Star Game. Assuming he makes the Canadiens out of training camp though, the question is where specifically will he play?
If it’s in a third-line role (or lower), it’s hard to imagine him doing more than replicating his admittedly modest production from last season. He wouldn’t really be put in a position to succeed in such an instance. However, if he’s played like the top-six forward he projects to be, the nine points he scored (23 games, prorated to 32 over 82 games) are a logical jumping off point in terms of expectations.
It obviously depends on Roy. However, it first depends on whether the Canadiens trade an excess forward this offseason (a la Christian Dvorak) to make room. If the Habs do, that would set the stage for Roy to move into a top-six role, presumably dropping winger Alex Newhook down to the third-line centre spot, which is Dvorak’s currently (which might be best for the team’s long-term outlook).
2. Alex Newhook
This is where things can get contentious, because some may suggest Newhook doesn’t belong on this list as someone who scored a career-high 34 points in 55 games last season as a 23-year-old.
However, the argument supporting his inclusion is this: Newhook really only came on late in the season. Returning from an injury in February, he scored 21 points in his last 30 games. Take that stretch away and the 13 in 25 that are left aren’t nearly as impressive. And, if we’re talking about just a few months of production, Newhook arguably has a lot more to prove, namely sustained success over an entire season.
There’s every reason to believe Newhook can accomplish the feat. Looking at in one way, his linemates down the stretch, as he was forced to centre Brendan Gallagher and Joel Armia due to a long string of injuries to befall the team, are hardly superstars. Looking at it another… if the Canadiens don’t manage to trade Dvorak as suggested above, Newhook will realistically get played on the wing of Kirby Dach, who’s already displayed a terrible penchant for making his linemates even better.
1. Kirby Dach
If Newhook belongs on this list, as does Dach. After all, Dach scored at a similar pace as the former in 2022-23 (38 points in 58 games), before (a more serious) injury struck, limiting him to just two games last season. All that to say, Dach still has a lot more to prove himself in terms of sustained success.
The general consensus seems to be Dach has the ability to, but that there are no guarantees all the same, especially from a health standpoint. He’s never played more than 70 games in a single season, prompting some to express concern he ever can. Furthermore, if Dach is able to, can he get back to the level of play he displayed two seasons ago?
If history is any indication, based on the athletes who suffered a similar injury, there is good chance Dach can. And, logically, by the (unofficial) law of averages, both he and the Canadiens are due for some luck.
Many say he’s injury-prone, but the flip side of the argument is that the major injuries he’s suffered have all been to different parts of his body. So, if it is just bad luck (and Canadiens fans should know firsthand there is such a thing), there’s low(er) risk of reaggravating them.
Taking all that into account, based on his undeniable skill as a centre some saw usurping Suzuki on the top line, Dach has the best chance of any Habs player to take his game to the next level. As has been established in older pieces, if he does the team as a whole should have little trouble doing the same. Just imagine if the unexpected happens and other players do too.
