The St. Louis Blues, after an eventful offseason, sent shockwaves through the hockey world again with a surprising midseason coaching change, parting ways with head coach Drew Bannister and bringing in Jim Montgomery. General manager Doug Armstrong framed the decision as being driven more by Montgomery’s availability than gripes with Bannister. However, it is evident the change would not have occurred had Bannister’s performance been significantly better.
One key factor in the Blues’ early struggles under Bannister was the constant reshuffling of lines. While injuries to key top-six players like Robert Thomas and Brandon Saad initially prevented chemistry, the inconsistency persisted after their return. With most of the season still ahead, Montgomery must bring stability to the lineup, and these are the line combinations he should prioritize to achieve that.
Forward Line 1: Buchnevich – Thomas – Kyrou
The Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas, and Jordan Kyrou line has been used by the Blues before, with mixed results. This season, the trio has posted a strong 66.7% expected goals percentage (xG%) and a 2-0 goal differential over 56 minutes together, according to MoneyPuck. Last season, they logged nearly 500 minutes together, achieving a 50.9% xG% and outscoring opponents 24-21.
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While there is a case to be made for splitting up this line, it should stay intact for now. The Blues have struggled to generate offense at even strength this season, and reuniting their three most talented forwards—who already have established chemistry—offers the best chance to turn things around.
Forward Line 2: Bolduc – Holloway – Neighbours
The Blues have plenty to be excited about with their young talent, led by forwards Zack Bolduc, Dylan Holloway, and Jake Neighbours. While Neighbours received fair ice time under Bannister, Bolduc, and Holloway did not see the same opportunities. That has changed under Montgomery, and both have thrived: Bolduc scored twice in Montgomery’s debut, while Holloway has tallied five points (three goals and two assists) in Montgomery’s three games.
This line has two potential drawbacks: inexperience and faceoff struggles. However, the trio’s production more than justifies their inclusion. Neighbours offers a net-front presence and playmaking, Holloway’s powerful shot generates rebounds, and Bolduc has excelled in all three zones, leading Blues forwards in goals percentage (G%), ranking fourth in expected goals percentage (xG%), and second in Corsi% early this season.
This isn't an accidental repost… Dylan Holloway just scored AGAIN! pic.twitter.com/FqBa36dRsp
— St. Louis Blues (@StLouisBlues) November 28, 2024
Most importantly, the Blues are not contenders this year—they are focused on developing their youth. Increasing ice time for young players like Bolduc, Holloway, and Neighbours not only aligns with this goal but is backed by their strong performances, showing they are ready for bigger roles.
Forward Line 3: Saad – Schenn – Sundqvist
Blues veterans have underperformed this season. Captain Brayden Schenn has managed just 12 points (four goals and eight assists) in 25 games, with a career-low 38.7% goals percentage (G%) and a 42.9% expected goals percentage (xG%), his second-worst in the category. Brandon Saad has not fared much better, recording just seven even-strength points with a 45.8% G% and 45.1% xG%. To address their struggles, it is imperative to reduce their ice time and send a message about their performance. As well, pairing them with Oskar Sundqvist could help the line have a more positive impact.
Though not known for his offense, Sundqvist has been a standout defensively. His 46% Corsi at even strength surpasses both Schenn and Saad, and his 51.7% xG% ranks second on the team, trailing only Robert Thomas. Sundqvist has excelled at limiting scoring chances against the Blues with 14 blocked shots, 26 hits, and five takeaways, making him an ideal linemate to alleviate some of the defensive burden on Schenn and Saad.
Forward Line 4: Walker – Faksa – Joseph
The Blues’ only forward line to log over 60 minutes together this season—Nathan Walker, Radek Faksa, and Alexey Toropchenko—has struggled, posting a 40.7 xG% while being outshot 122-122. Among lines with similar or greater ice time in the entire NHL, they have the worst xG%. While options to improve this trio are limited, replacing Toropchenko with Mathieu Joseph could be a step in the right direction.
Although not a game-changer, Joseph has consistently demonstrated his ability to generate offense in a bottom-six role without compromising defensive reliability. He surpasses Toropchenko in nearly every major statistical category and is an effective penalty killer. While he lacks Toropchenko’s speed, Joseph compensates with other strengths and deserves a chance to build chemistry within the Blues’ lineup and showcase his value.
With the Blues having just one forward line exceeding 60 minutes of ice time together, one thing is clear: the team needs to build chemistry. With a long season ahead, Montgomery must act quickly to make a lasting impact, and strengthening this refreshed lineup would be a step in the right direction.
