As the Ottawa Senators barrel past the one-third point of the 2024-25 season and near Christmas, it’s time to look at which of the team’s pending free agents president of hockey operations and general manager (GM) Steve Staios should re-sign. Yes, it’s early and things can change, but surely by now Staios has a pretty good feeling for who among his team’s nine pending free agents on the current roster he’d like to keep and those he doesn’t. Here’s a look at what Staios might do.
Staios Has Limited Room to Maneuver on Free Agents
At the end of this season almost half of the Senators’ 23-man roster will be free agents – either unrestricted free agents (UFA) or restricted (RFA). All told, they earn $15.4 million per year – or about 17% of the projected $92.5 million salary cap for next season. Players with term left on their contracts will eat up $73.6 million next season, or about 80% of that cap.
Many fans in Bytown say one of Staios’ priorities must be to re-sign pending UFAs Claude Giroux and Adam Gaudette. Giroux makes $6.5 million annually. As for Gaudette, his stellar performance so far this season probably means Staios must fork over a contract with term and a big increase in pay. These two signings would likely burn through much of what the team now spends on free agents.
Staios will also need to budget for a backup to starting goalie Linus Ullmark. Re-signing current back-up net minder Anton Forsberg will cost at least his current salary of $2.75 million. Despite questions about the big Swede’s play, he may be Staios’ only option given that nobody on the Bellville Senators’ American Hockey League roster seems NHL ready. What’s more, with cap constraints, it’s doubtful Staios has the money to hire a better goaltender than Forsberg.
Staios is also rumoured to be shopping for a defenceman. (from, Graeme Nichols, “Josh Norris Trade Speculation: Are the Ottawa Senators Considering A Breakup Of Their Core?”, The Hockey News, 26/11/2024) Signing a player of a similar calibre to Artem Zub or Nick Jensen would cost Staios at least $4 million.
If Staios made all these signings, here’s what the resulting roster could cost:
| Contract | Contract Value – Actual or Projected |
| Players Under Contract for 2025-26 | $73.6 million (Actual) |
| Giroux | $ 6.5 million (Projected) |
| Gaudette | $ 3.5 million (Projected) |
| Forsberg | $ 2.8 million (Projected) |
| New Defenceman | $ 4.0 million (Projected) |
| Total Salary Budget | $90.4 million |
All that Staios would have left over to sign the remaining players on his current list of free agents would be $1.6 million if the league’s projected salary cap for next season does in fact turn out to be $92.5 million. It’s not enough and something has to give.
So, with that in mind here’s my take on the pending free agents Staios should sign again and those he shouldn’t.
Pending Free Agents Staios Should Re-Sign
1) Adam Gaudette
If there was ever a proverbial “no brainer” when it comes to re-signing a UFA, Gaudette would be it based on his performance so far this season. Gaudette’s 13 goals thus far puts him even with the Senators goal scoring leader, Brady Tkachuk. He also ranks sixth on the team in points. Not only that, but he ranks first in the NHL in shooting percentage with a jaw dropping 37.1%.
What is remarkable about the 28-year-old Massachusetts-born centre’s play are his points and goal production per 60 minutes of play. While he has racked up 3.17 points-per-60, what’s truly gob-smacking is his goals-per-60 of 2.77. That compares very well to Tkachuk’s 1.64, Norris’ 1.41, Tim Stutzle’s 1.09 and Drake Batherson’s 1.09.
Gaudette is on track for 40 goals this season. While that’s higher than Tkachuk’s projected 39, Norris’ 36, and Stutzle’s 30, no one is suggesting that entitles him to a salary approaching theirs. He needs to demonstrate that he can produce at that level for the rest of the season and beyond. Staios will be mindful that Gaudette has managed to play in just 228 NHL games over seven seasons bouncing back and forth between the NHL and the minors. He’s not yet proven.
It’s certainly true that Batherson is on track this season for 85 points and Gaudette only 45. That makes it hard to justify paying him anything close to Batherson’s annual salary of $4.975 million. Even so, Shane Pinto, who has just one goal and three points this season, s being paid $3.75 million. That makes it hard to argue that Gaudette isn’t worth considerably more. Last season players who had 45 points as Gaudette is projected to have this season included the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Nick Paul ($3.15 million per year) and the Buffalo Sabres’ Jeff Skinner ($3.0 million).
Watch for Staios to sign Gaudette to a two-year deal in the range of $3.5 million per year assuming he maintains his current pace to the end of the season.
2) Anton Forsberg
Some say Ullmark is the second coming, but not even Jesus could play every night. Staios needs a backup who is good enough to keep his team in games when Ullmark is resting or injured. Not only that, but said netminder must be affordable given his limitations with the salary cap.
Forsberg fits the bill on all counts with his affordable $2.75 million annual salary and a save percentage (SV%) so far this season of .889 and goals-against average (GAA) per game of 2.95. The corresponding markers for an average NHL net minder are .901 and 2.84, respectively.
3) Ridly Greig
2024-25 should have been Greig’s breakout season. It’s been anything but with the 23-year-old pending RFA registering just seven points over 24 games so far this season. It’s true that he brings grit and an nasty edge to the Senators’ roster, but he must bring more than that to be signed to an extension with a decent pay hike.
Greig is a centre and has struggled to adjust to the wing where he’s played most of the season. There’s still plenty of time left in the season for him to make that adjustment and live up to the potential the Senators’ coaching staff saw in him in training camp. Playing on a line with fiery rookie Zach Ostapchuk and veteran Noah Gregor may help him raise his game.
RFAs who can’t back up their contract demands with results on the ice are in a weak negotiating position and Greig would be no exception. A one-year deal with a token salary increase is something Staios could probably negotiate.
4) Nick Cousins
At 31-years old, Cousins is past his best-before date. Even so, with 11 NHL seasons and a Stanley Cup championship ring on his finger, Cousins is an affordable veteran presence in the dressing room. The pending UFA makes just $800,000 per season.
Cousins wasn’t hired last summer for his points production. On that count he hasn’t disappointed, recording just three goals and three assists over his 25 games this season. Even so, without a better roster addition coming out of the woodwork, he’s probably worth re-signing for another year at his current price tag. But Staios can wait until next summer to see what if any improvements over Cousins emerge who would make for better signing.
5) Noah Gregor
As with Cousins, pending UFA Gregor has been a steady veteran presence in the bottom-six. At a salary of $850,000 he’s a low risk signing next summer.
6) Tyler Kleven
Extending a qualifying offer to pending RFA Tyler Kleven is a must next summer. The 6-foot-4, 200-pound blue liner is just starting to develop his potential.
Sure, in 27 games so far this season the 22-year-old rookie has registered just two points. Yet his minus-2 rating is respectable among defencemen. Not only that, but he has recorded the second-highest number of blocked shots among Senators blueliners despite having the second lowest average time on the ice among Ottawa defencemen. What’s even more impressive from the 22-year-old is that his 35 hits so far this season ranks first among all Ottawa defencemen. On takeaways, he ranks third in the d-corps.
Sure, he has made some ghastly blunders in his own zone this season, but that’s to be expected from a rookie. A qualifying offer featuring a little more term and a modest salary increase is what Staios will open with in the spring. If Kleven can show he’s the real deal in the NHL then a long-term contract with a competitive NHL salary will surely follow.
Pending Free Agents Staios Should Not Re-Sign
1) Claude Giroux
Giroux is a fan favourite in Ottawa. What’s more, he and his family love it in Bytown. Even so, the 36-year-old veteran is nearing the end of his career. While he is putting up respectable numbers, he may be more valuable to Staios in a trade to a Cup contender at the 2025 Trade Deadline.
Related: Ottawa Senators Can’t Trade Their Way to the Playoffs This Season
At least part of Giroux’s $6.5 million annual salary is sorely needed to sign a veteran defenceman. What’s more, some of what he makes could go toward signing one or more of the young guns who become RFAs next spring.
Still, an argument could be made that the young Senators’ core could benefit from at least another season of Giroux’s veteran presence. Perhaps, but Staios brought in old warriors the likes of Stanley Cup champions Michael Amadio, Cousins, and David Perron last summer for that purpose. Just how much veteran presence do the Senators need and at what price?
2) Travis Hamonic
With 15 NHL campaigns behind him, the 34-year-old blueliner has just one point over the 26 games he has played so far this season. Over the past three seasons, Hamonic has done everything Ottawa has asked him to do in stabilizing their blue line and mentoring their young defence corps.
But it’s time for him to go and the young defenders to start pulling their weight. The time for nannies on the Senators’ blue line is over.
3) Jacob Bernard-Docker
Bernard-Docker has played 121 games with the Ottawa Senators over the past five seasons. During that time, he’s only managed to score a trifling five goals and record only 15 assists. He has bounced back and forth between the Belleville Senators and the big club and was even put on waivers.
It’s time for the Senators to decide whether Bernard-Docker has a long-term future with the club. He’s played just 17 games this season and has only four points. He has been healthy scratch almost as often as he’s laced up to skate. If this is all the Senators see in him, then it’s time to move on and invest in the development of more promising prospects in Belleville.
Senators Have Big Decisions to Make on Free Agents
With two thirds of the season remaining, there’s still plenty of time for free agents to prove they deserve a new contract. By the same token, some of them could play their way out of one should they falter.
The only certainty is that there will be plenty of controversy in Ottawa next spring when Staios reveals which of his pending free agents he’s keeping and who will have a one-way ticket out of town.
