The 4 Nations Face-Off tournament is coming up faster than Dom Toretto en route to a family reunion. Running Feb. 12-20 in Montreal and Boston, it promises big thrills to satisfy the appetites of NHL fans eagerly awaiting a best-on-best international tournament, after having gone without the last several Winter Olympics in China (2022) and South Korea (2018).
Of course, considering it’s the 4 Nations Face-Off, the tournament will inconveniently be missing two of the league’s top three scorers in Leon Draisaitl (Germany) and Nikita Kucherov (Russia). So, it’s an admittedly imperfect substitute, but one that should nevertheless deliver more intense action than the annual All-Star Game, which the tournament replaces.
The entertainment factor is always high in principle. However, with American, Canadian, Finnish and Swedish players representing their countries instead of their divisions, to which their allegiances just aren’t as strong (one would hope, anyway), the potential for more nail-biting hockey is incredibly palpable. That’s easy enough to envision, though. Here are five more predictions, including one for each country, heading into the league’s annual mid-season soon-to-be-a classic:
Doughty Will Replace Pietrangelo (Team Canada)
It’s not for certain. However, Drew Doughty being in contact with Team Canada (through player-relations advisor Ryan Getzlaf) certainly shows he’s in consideration to replace Alex Pietrangelo, who just recently bowed out of the tournament. There’s little replacing Pietrangelo, to be clear. He’s the ideal, which should be abundantly clear based on how he had been selected in the first place. However, based on Pietrangelo’s soon-to-be 35 years of age and right-handedness, it’s clear Canada was looking for some combination of leadership and effectiveness.
Related: Guide to the 4 Nations Face-Off
The similarly right-handed Doughty, who was taken a few spots earlier in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft (No. 2 vs. No. 4) meets those criteria as a two-time Stanley Cup champion (2012, 2014) and James Norris Memorial Trophy winner (2016)… and two-time Olympic gold medalist (2010, 2014). And, while there are maybe younger, sexier choices available, the signs in the direction Canada had initially been going here all point one way and that’s to the Los Angeles Kings defenseman.
Markstrom Won’t Be Missed in Net (Team Sweden)
Along those same lines, there’s no question the injured Jacob Markstrom is a better goalie than replacement Samuel Ersson. However, that’s far from clear regarding Linus Ullmark, who won the 2023 Vezina Trophy or even Filip Gustavsson, who NHL.com suggests should receive consideration for this year’s trophy and could/should replace Markstrom instead (as Sweden’s projected starter).
Looking at the stats, Markstrom is 21-9-5 with a 2.20 goals-against average (GAA) and .912 save percentage (SV%) for the New Jersey Devils. Ullmark, who just returned from injury himself, is 12-8-2 with a 2.41 GAA and .915 SV% with the Ottawa Senators. Gustavsson is 20-11-3 with a 2.66 GAA and .913 SV% with the Minnesota Wild. In terms of goals saved above expected, which many interpret as a better metric to measure effectiveness in net and could better explain any quasi-controversial suggestion Gustavsson is in line to be named the best goalie in the league, he has the best mark of the three at 11.6 to rank 12th, per MoneyPuck.com.
So, while Markstrom (11.3) could have been seen as a favorite to be named Sweden’s starter, Gustavsson, despite an admittedly poor 2023-24, is no slouch, and, as alluded to earlier, neither is Ullmark (10.8). Ersson (-7.5) is clearly in a different, lower tier, but, as the clear No. 3, it’s clear he’ll only see the net in a worst-case scenario. Whether it’s any of the former two instead, neither one translates to a bad scenario. The duo probably makes up the best one-two punch in the tournament.
Kakko Will Use Tourney as Launching Pad to Stardom (Team Finland)
The New York Rangers trading one-time second-overall-pick Kaapo Kakko (2019) to the Seattle Kraken made sense in the sense the not-even-24-year-old had largely underwhelmed with the Blueshirts over the last six seasons. In 2023-24, before the trade, he had four goals and 14 points in 30 games. Since though, he has five goals and 17 points in 22 games.
Related: How Kaapo Kakko Fits Into the Seattle Kraken’s Plans
It may not seem like that huge of a difference over a small sample size. However, look for Kakko to reinforce it over the next few weeks on a national, nay, international stage instead of just the (North)West Coast, which simply doesn’t get as many eyeballs as the larger East Coast markets, admittedly like New York. However, on a generally deeper Rangers team up front, Kakko had been getting just 13:17 per game this season, including under a minute on the power play. With the Kraken, he’s getting 17:15 (1:35).
Granted, Kakko will be playing on a Finnish team with even more firepower up front. So, while he may be a top-six, even top-line talent on the Kraken, NHL.com had projected him as lining up on the third for his native country… just with Dallas Stars teammates Roope Hintz and Mikael Granlund, each arguably top-line talents in their own right.
Wherever Kakko does line up, he’ll get his looks with great linemates and give Rangers fans fits over why their team justifiably or not gave up on the young Finn when it did. With his one-year extension expiring (which probably played a part in said justification), Kakko is set to cash in to a greater extent now after a few months with his new team. Look for that cap hit to come in even higher after a successful, proper showcase of what he brings to the table.
Eichel Will Make More Strides to Shedding Status as McDavid Consolation Prize (Team USA)
To be clear, absolutely no one thinks the Edmonton Oilers made the wrong choice picking Connor McDavid first overall over Jack Eichel at the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. However, there are probably at least some who have argued in recent years that the Buffalo Sabres should have used that second pick on someone else, especially based on how Eichel is no longer with the team, having been traded to the Vegas Golden Knights over three years ago now.
Eichel was always a point-per-game-caliber player. However, even in winning a Stanley Cup (2023), which McDavid has only come close to doing, he’s rarely if ever been seen as the guy since the trade. Even this season, leading the Knights in scoring with 18 goals and 66 points in 53 games, it’s almost as if he needs to do more simply to be acknowledged as an all-world player. Something like center the United States’ top line at the 4 Nations Face-Off, maybe?
Granted, with fellow-center Auston Matthews captaining the squad, that’s not exactly a given, despite NHL.com’s projection to that effect. After all, many Toronto Maple Leafs faithful have wasted many a breath arguing he’s in the same best-in-the-world conversation as McDavid. Still, the fact Eichel is simply in the conversation to be USA’s No. 1 centre is a show of respect he’s rarely gotten in recent years. A successful international tournament (to go along with the Cup he’s already won) will go a long way to cementing his status as one of the best in the game. It doesn’t get more successful than an all-out tournament victory.
USA over Canada in 4 Nations Face-Off Final
Any team that can boast three Hart Memorial Trophy winners on one line in McDavid (three times), Sidney Crosby (two times) and Nathan MacKinnon (once, but the reigning title holder) has a definite edge in this tournament. With that, no one should look past Canada. Canada shouldn’t necessarily be considered the favorite to win it all, though.
Ultimately, that aforementioned edge up front isn’t as well-defined past the top line. And the USA’s lineup simply appears deeper, all the way through, including most notably in net, where reigning Vezina-winner Connor Hellebuyck has continued to run roughshod over the entire league this season as the favorite to win it again so far (33-7-2, 2.04 GAA, .925 SV%).
Canada is obviously a strong team. However, despite its two Stanley Cup champions in net (Adin Hill, with the Golden Knights in 2023, and Jordan Binnington, with the St. Louis Blues in 2019), goaltending is an undeniable weak point. Over the course of a two-week tournament, Canada should be able to compensate. Should Canada reach the final, in a single-elimination situation, all bets should be off. If the USA reaches the final too, which is a definite possibility, based on the overall strength of the team top to bottom, bet on them.