The Colorado Avalanche are six points ahead of the Minnesota Wild, ranked third in the Central Division, but are eight points behind the Dallas Stars.
The Avalanche have been performing well lately, but their early-season struggles have hindered their ability to compete for the top spot in the division. The Stars have also been playing well, maintaining their second-place position in the Central. Unless the Stars experience a significant decline, the Avalanche will face them in Round 1 of the playoffs without home-ice advantage.
Avalanche’s Play Against the Stars This Season
In three meetings this season, the Avalanche hold a 2-1-0 edge, outscoring the Stars 13-11. The Stars faced three very different Avalanche teams: the first time with Alexandar Georgiev in net in a 5-3 loss on Nov. 29, then, with newly-acquired Scott Wedgewood on Jan. 18 in a 6-3 win, and, finally, against their former teammate Mikko Rantanen in a 4-3 overtime win on March 16. Last season, the Avalanche won three of the four games in their regular-season series but lost in Round 2 of the playoffs in six games.
This season is different for both teams. The Avalanche have made significant changes to their roster, their goaltending has improved, they have more depth at center, and their bottom-six players are more versatile than before. The Avalanche are also healthier this late in the campaign than they were last season
The Stars have also improved, adding Rantanen to their top six at the 2025 Trade Deadline; he has been a key playoff performer. They’ve also strengthened their center depth with the addition of Mikael Granlund. This series will test which team’s recent additions will be the bigger X-factor.
Could the Avalanche Still Secure Home-Ice Advantage?
The Avalanche started the season 13-12-0 with a minus-12 goal differential, and were only four points behind the Stars for third place. Over the next 25 games, they put together a record of 28-20-2, two points behind the Wild for third place. The Avalanche’s poor start to the season has kept them from fighting for first place in the division and even the conference.
Related: Avalanche’s New Additions Thriving After NHL Trade Deadline
Since the trade deadline, the Avalanche are tied for the third-best record in the NHL, going 8-2-2 for 18 points and rejuvenating their power play to an eye-popping 33.3% success rate. The problem is that the Winnipeg Jets and Stars are right below them, gaining 18 points each in the same period.
The Stars have been performing exceptionally well and have a relatively easy remaining schedule, facing opponents like the Nashville Predators and the Pittsburgh Penguins. While they could lose those games, it seems unlikely given their current level of play, which leaves the Avalanche as their likely first-round opponent.
Regular Season Performance Versus Playoff Performance
The Avalanche have performed well against the Stars in the regular season, winning two out of three matchups and outscoring them 13-11. However, this success doesn’t guarantee future results, as they had similar success against the Stars last season. They won three out of four games and outscored them 20-15, yet still lost to the Stars in the playoffs during Round 2, going down in six games. It was just like the Jets last season: The Avalanche lost all three games against them in the regular season, being outscored 17-4, but pulled a shocking first-round upset by beating them in five games and lighting them up 28-11 even with Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck, who had their number all season, in the net.
It’s been evident throughout the entire NHL that regular-season and playoff performances are entirely different (ask the Toronto Maple Leafs about that). Although the Avalanche have previously faced similar challenges—often defeating their opponents in four to five games in the first round—they frequently struggle in the second round, where their roster’s weaknesses become apparent. Common issues include a lack of scoring depth, unreliable goaltending, and too many penalties. The changes to the roster were made to fix the errors of the previous playoff runs; we need to see them truly be fixed come Game 1 against a Stars team that has made quite a few changes on their own to combat other teams’ efforts to best them.
The Avalanche are a better team now than they were at the start of the season and should feel much more confident, no matter who they face in Round 1. If it turns out to be the Stars, they will have a chance for revenge after what happened last year. The Avalanche season has had its ups and downs, but with the changes they’ve made and their current performance, Round 1 will be exciting.
