Sure, every year brings us a host of terrible free-agent signings, but what about some of the good ones? Plenty of NHL teams find value and market inefficiencies on July 1, and this year was no different. Let’s look at some of the best UFA signings of the 2024 offseason to this point.
A Trio of Oilers Signings
Jeff Skinner
It seemed like a foregone conclusion that Jeff Skinner would sign with a playoff team after the Buffalo Sabres bought him out. After all, he’s played 1000 career regular-season games without appearing in the playoffs. But that should change next season after he signed a one-year deal worth $3 million with the Edmonton Oilers.
Skinner is not without his flaws. His defensive shortcomings are very real, but he’s still a plus offensive player who will put up points. Skinner has averaged 32 goals and 67 points per 82 games over the last three seasons, and he’s been one of the most efficient five-on-five goal scorers over that stretch, averaging 1.25 goals per 60 minutes. That’s a top-10 rate among forwards with 1000 minutes logged at five-on-five.
You have to imagine Skinner will play alongside one of Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. If those efficiency rates stick, he could be in line for a big year in Edmonton, making him worth well more than $3 million.
Viktor Arvidsson
Not only did the Oilers add Skinner to their top six, but Viktor Arvidsson will likely play a part, too. He signed a two-year deal at a cap hit of $4 million, and though injuries are a concern, he also has the potential to be a significant scoring upgrade for the Oilers.
Arvidsson has averaged 26 goals and 68 points per 82 games over the last three seasons and has been an efficient five-on-five scorer, averaging 1.92 points per 60 minutes. The key is his health, but if he can stay on the ice, he could be another 60-point scorer for the Oilers. They struggled with depth a season ago, so Skinner and Arvidsson should provide a significant boost. But wait. There’s more.
Adam Henrique
OK, this isn’t a UFA signing per se since Henrique finished the 2023-24 season with the Oilers after getting traded to Edmonton from the Anaheim Ducks. But he did re-up with the Oilers for two years at a cap hit of $3 million, which is certainly less than he could have gotten on the open market on July 1.
Related: 8 Worst Contracts Handed Out in Free Agency 2024
Henrique finished this past season with 24 goals and 51 points and is showing no signs of slowing down at 34. He does a bit of everything, from playing on the penalty kill, winning draws and having the versatility to play left wing or center. I don’t think he has the footspeed to play alongside McDavid or Draisaitl for extended stretches, but having him in a middle-six role should do wonders for a team that was already one win away from winning the Stanley Cup.
Erik Gustafsson
OK, that’s enough about the Oilers. There were other quality signings in free agency this year, and of course, Erik Gustafsson was one of them again. After signing with the New York Rangers for only $800,000 last offseason, he got a bump in pay with the Detroit Red Wings, signing for two years at a cap hit of $2 million.
Still, that’s probably a bargain for what Gustafsson offers. He does have his shortcomings defensively and is turnover-prone, but as long as the Red Wings keep his minutes sheltered, he should thrive in a third-pair role while getting some power-play time. His overall game was worth a total goals above replacement (GAR) of 6.6 in 2023-24, so there’s a valuable player here if the Red Wings find the right role for him as the Rangers did.
Erik Brannstrom
Was I surprised the Ottawa Senators didn’t qualify Erik Brannstrom? Perhaps a bit, but I was less surprised when the Colorado Avalanche signed him to a one-year deal worth $900,000. Brannstrom was a highly touted prospect who came to Ottawa as part of the Mark Stone trade in 2019. It didn’t work out in Ottawa, but don’t be surprised if he pops with the Avalanche.
Brannstrom is going to a much better team in the Avalanche, which helps, but his underlying numbers suggest there’s a player. Similar to Gustafsson, Brannstrom is turnover-prone, but a look at his RAPM chart from Evolving Hockey shows that he’s had a generally positive two-way impact at even strength over the last three seasons:
For $900,000, taking a flyer on Brannstrom makes a ton of sense, especially for a team capped out like the Avalanche. They need to find value with UFA bargains to bolster their depth, and I would bet on them finding a proper role for Brannstrom to thrive in because that’s what they tend to do. Maybe this is a stretch, but there’s potential for him to be one of the best value signings of this offseason when looking back on it a year from now.
Mike Reilly
The New York Islanders haven’t had the best offseason, but re-upping Mike Reilly was one of the better moves a team has made this month. He finished with 24 points in 61 games in 2023-24 — a 32-point pace over 82 games. He was also one of the Islanders’ more valuable players, as his play was worth a total GAR of 6.8, and he’s not just an offensive defenseman. He can defend, too, even if it’s just in a bottom-pair role.
Reilly re-signed with the Islanders for just one year and a cap hit of $1.25 million. It’s a nice story for someone who looked like he might be out of the NHL not even a year ago. And if he plays the way he did for the Islanders this past season, they likely get more bang for their buck than the $1.25 million they re-signed him for.
Shayne Gostisbehere
The Carolina Hurricanes will have a much different look next season, specifically on defense. Gone are Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei and in are Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere. While I think there’s an argument that Walker could be one of the better signings of this offseason, too, Gostisbehere takes the cake for me.
There’s a lot to like about Gostisbehere’s game, specifically offensively. He finished this past season with ten goals and 56 points in 81 games for the Red Wings, with his even-strength offense worth an expected GAR of 6.6. His overall game was worth a total xGAR of 12.6, well above his actual GAR (5.3), and since the Hurricanes’ system tends to be perfect for defensemen, I’d expect him to put up some impressive results.
The Hurricanes signed Gostisbehere for three years at a cap hit of just $3.2 million. He’ll likely play third-pair minutes since Jaccob Slavin and Dmitry Orlov are ahead of him on the depth chart. But even for $3.2 million annually, that’s great value for a defenseman who has 50-point upside.
Matt Duchene
I’m not sure how the Dallas Stars did it two years in a row, but they managed to keep Matt Duchene on an identical one-year, $3 million deal. He was excellent for the Stars in 2023-24, totaling 25 goals and 65 points in 80 games while playing a second-line role.
For context’s sake, Evolving Hockey had Duchene signing a three-year deal at a cap hit just above $7 million. Even on a one-year contract, Evolving Hockey had him earning $4.017 million, so the Stars got some value in re-upping him. It helps when you’re a winning organization that’s made the Western Conference Final two consecutive years. They’re close, and I’m sure that’s why they retained him at the same price they signed him for an offseason ago.
Finding Value Is the Way to Go in Free Agency
The Oilers deserve props for their offseason, but they weren’t the only team who found some value in the free-agent market. Even signings like Anthony Mantha (Calgary Flames), Dmitry Kulikov (Florida Panthers) and Anthony Duclair (Islanders) could prove fruitful, though I wouldn’t go as far as to say they were among the best of the offseason. And with a couple of notable UFAs (James van Riemsdyk and Daniel Sprong) still available, there could still be some bargains to be had in free agency.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey
