The Columbus Blue Jackets have a lot of key decisions ahead of them. As they continue to build their core of the future, they will be making a ton of personnel decisions. As it is, they’ve already made some key ones by trading players like David Jiricek, Patrik Laine, and Alexandre Texier – who are all players that were once thought of as key pieces in the rebuild. Another one is forthcoming on the blue line and it’s one that may have been unexpected at the start of the season.
Defenseman Ivan Provorov was a high pick for the Philadelphia Flyers. After a very strong campaign for the Brandon Wheat Kings of the Western Hockey League (WHL), he was picked seventh overall in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. As an aside: that was one pick ahead of Blue Jackets’ star defenseman Zach Werenski. Provorov spent several seasons playing the number one role within a weaker overall defense corps, but was shipped to Columbus as a part of their rebuilding efforts in 2023.
It seemed unlikely that Provorov would be a long-term piece for the Blue Jackets at that time, merely a stopgap for the team. This as they tried to push for a playoff spot in a last-ditch effort from then-general manager Jarmo Kekalainen to make his team more competitive in the short-term. Provorov was brought in at a reduced salary of $4.725 million for the final two years of his contract. It seemed like the plan would be to keep him in the short term and then dangle him as bait at this year’s trade deadline if the team didn’t make the leap and start contending for a playoff spot.
Recent reports may change the picture slightly, as TSN’s Pierre LeBrun has said the Russian’s agent is on the record saying he is open to talks of an extension, and that Provorov’s younger brother is committed to play for Ohio State, which is based in Columbus. A connection that certainly puts a bit of a twist on what was once a cut-and-dry situation.
I spoke with Ivan’s agent, Mark Gandler, who’s also the advisor for the Provorov family, today and what Gandler told me is obviously these are separate business decisions. We have to be careful here, but that the two brothers are very close and that part of the reason why the younger brother has committed to Ohio State is that they spend a lot of time in Columbus and the Provorov family really likes Columbus.
TSN’s Pierre Lebrun on an edition of Early Trading from Dec. 17, 2024.
Now, he’s not going to be at Ohio State for another two or three years because he’s only 16, but it is an interesting twist in all this. One of the things that Gandler said to me today is that Provorov loves it in Columbus, and that they are “open” to discussions about an extension with the Blue Jackets if that’s something the Blue Jackets would like to entertain.
Provorov is a legitimate second or third-best defender on an NHL roster and the Blue Jackets should at least consider an extension. As they mull the decision to sign or trade him, there is a lot to consider. We’ll have a look at that here and end with the key question that general manager Don Waddell will have to answer to ultimately swing his decision.
Provorov’s Next Contract
A legitimate top-four defenseman rarely becomes available on the free agent market – especially at age 28. If Provorov makes it to that point, he will command a pretty penny. Maximizing dollars will be imperative for the Russian because this next contract is likely to be the largest in his career considering he’s in his prime right now. There will be no better time for him to capitalize on his value in the open market than this summer.
For Columbus to compete for his services beyond this season, they’d likely have to consider a max-term, eight-year offer. It would be a decision that would effectively lock in the team’s top four as other defensemen Zach Werenski and Damon Severson are committed to another three and six years, respectively. Provorov is capable of playing the right side, but is best on the left, so that locks up the two slots on the left side of the blue line for the foreseeable future.
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Moneywise, his next deal on the open market would surely be a raise of some magnitude over his current full salary of $6.75 million. If you slot that into the team’s long-term mix, while they’re in a good spot right now cap-wise, it could affect the negotiations of long-term contracts for core players like Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli, Cole Sillinger, and Kent Johnson. However, it would bring stability to half of the personnel on the team’s backend allowing them to build a longer-term identity.
Roster Considerations of Re-Signing Provorov
The Blue Jackets will also have to consider the effects on their roster planning over the length of a Provorov extension. They’ve got to look at the options available at left defense and project their D-corps over the next several seasons. It starts at the top with Werenski, who has broken out to a whole other level this season. He’s played to a level that will have him in consideration for the Norris Trophy as the best defenseman in the league and is as close as it gets to being untouchable in the Blue Jackets’ organization. That locks him into the top pairing slot.
That means either Provorov switches to right defense to get a shot at the top-pairing, or he spends the duration as a lock on the Blue Jackets’ second pairing. On paper, that’s a pretty good look for the team long-term and could be worth a shot. However, it does suck up a lot of oxygen for the team’s prospects who play the left side. There’s one name that gets key consideration.
2022 first-round pick, Denton Mateychuk, looks particularly primed for a long-term top-four position after lighting up the WHL during his junior career and has continued that in the American Hockey League (AHL) this season. The rookie pro is 16th in player scoring and first among defensemen league-wide. To say the youngster has potential is a massive understatement.
Does this remind you of anything? Fellow 2022 first-round pick, David Jiricek, looked like a beast in his AHL debut during the 2022-23 season. However, the Blue Jackets’ right defense had been logjammed by the likes of Severson, Erik Gudbranson, Adam Boqvist, Andrew Peeke, and Nick Blankenburg. They sucked all of the developmental oxygen on the right side, discontentment grew between the player and organization, and now Jiricek is a member of the Minnesota Wild. The team could have round two with Mateychuk if they don’t clear some sort of runway for the youngster.
Blue Jackets’ Key Question Regarding Provorov
So we’ve considered a lot of the factors surrounding this situation and it’s time to get to the key question. That is: Do the Blue Jackets believe that Provorov or Mateychuk will be the better defenseman over the length of Provorov’s next contract and beyond?
If they truly believe Provorov will be the better player for what they’re building, the Blue Jackets should re-sign him. If they don’t believe that, they should know that an effort to retain him would be to the detriment of a top prospect in Mateychuk. Their decision-making ahead of the trade deadline will be indicative of their thoughts in that regard. Mateychuk is primed to make his NHL debut on Dec. 23 against the Montreal Canadiens at Nationwide Arena. His play over the next stretch could affect the team’s decision on Provorov.
