The Montreal Canadiens continue to pull out surprising wins, despite being outmanned at every turn. It’s maybe a testament to the winning culture head coach Martin St. Louis has instilled. Even so, it’s a testament to the hole the Canadiens dug for themselves earlier this season, specifically during an atrocious December, that they’re still just about guaranteed a haul at the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.
Canadiens fans have generally come to terms with the notion they won’t make the playoffs, resulting in a focus on maximizing their chances at a high draft pick instead for the sake of general manager Kent Hughes’ undeniable rebuild. The thing is though it’s already in the bag. Here are the top five reasons why:
5. Decent NHL Draft Lottery Odds to Start
It’s of course true the closer to last place the Canadiens get, the better chance they have a chance at securing the right to pick Connor Bedard, this year’s undisputed No. 1 prospect. However, even if the Canadiens do finish last in the standings, they’ll still only have a small chance at the first pick (25.5% based on the odds displayed on Daily Faceoff).
At this point, the Canadiens, with the seventh-worst record at 24-19-4 entering Friday night action, have a 7.5% chance. Relatively speaking, whether it’s 25.5% or 7.5%, it’s at least a chance. The Canadiens and their fans would obviously like a bigger one and it’s entirely possible they end up with a higher percentage when everything is said and done, but, barring that, there’s at least a chance, with the New York Rangers having moved up from 14th last in 2020 to draft first overall (Alexis Lafreniere).
That won’t happen again, as teams can now move up only as much as 10 spots (based on 2022 NHL Draft Lottery rules). Rest assured though, the Canadiens are unlikely to climb in the standings from here on out (which would eliminate any hope they have at Bedard; They will always have a chance regardless of what happens from here on out).
4. Tough Canadiens Schedule
If anything, the Canadiens will fall further, closer to last spot, based on their upcoming schedule, which has been among the toughest in the entire league since December. The Canadiens went 4-9-2 that month, effectively falling out of the playoff race altogether, in spite of a decent start to the season.
Granted, following the end of their infamous seven-game losing streak in early January (during which they got outscored 36-12), the Canadiens are a decent 9-8-1. However, consider 19 of their remaining 25 games are against teams at the most two points out of a playoff spot.
Even if their latest win, a 5-2 victory on Feb. 21, came against the 38-15-5 New Jersey Devils, look at the facts: The Canadiens got outshot 40-18 in the game. While it’s become the norm for goalie Samuel Montembeault to put on a decent show (.908 save percentage), the Habs are scoring a 29th-ranked 2.67 goals per game. That specific game was an aberration that won’t be replicated more often than not.
3. All the Canadiens Injuries
It’s really just logical, based on the players on the shelf first and foremost. Despite having set a man-games lost record in 2021-22, the Habs are on pace to challenge it, with players like Carey Price, Paul Byron, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky out the rest of the season (on top of the games they and others have already missed).
Needless to say, the Canadiens aren’t exactly icing their best lineup these days, which should only translate to more losses down the stretch. Furthermore, that lineup is only poised to get even weaker in just a few days.
2. Canadiens Still Sellers at Trade Deadline
If nothing else, believe the Canadiens are going to sell off assets before the March 3 trade deadline. Twelve points out of the second wild-card spot in the East, the Canadiens aren’t making the playoffs and anyone with a rational train of thought has long since come to that very conclusion. So, Hughes’ only real play at the deadline is to trade his pending unrestricted free agents for at least something or risk losing them for nothing come the summer… and Hughes is one of the people who’s clearly thinking rationally.
At this point, it’s not even about the return. The third first-round pick Hughes reportedly wants? The assets he could have realistically used to acquire it earlier in the season are either injured or in the midst of horrible campaigns. So, barring a miracle or a last-minute change of heart on his part, how Josh Anderson is probably worth more in the form of futures for what the Canadiens want to accomplish long term, the Canadiens aren’t getting much of anything significant.
Nevertheless, even if expectations for Hughes’ second trade deadline should be tempered, the Canadiens are still likely to lose the services of, at the very least, Jonathan Drouin, who has come on in recent weeks from a playmaking perspective. Maybe Hughes finds a taker for Evgeny Dadonov too. Maybe the Canadiens get lucky and Sean Monahan gets healthy enough to warrant interest from other teams, in which case he too is realistically gone. All that to say, if the Habs weren’t icing an American Hockey League-caliber lineup with all their current injuries, they will be soon enough.
1. Deep 2023 NHL Entry Draft Class
To a degree, that may not be enough to drop significantly in the standings. After all, the Canadiens do have a decent farm system. They’ll still be in a great position to add to it come the 2023 Draft, though. Even if the Canadiens miss out on Bedard or fall out of the top four, which is projected to consist of Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov and Leo Carlsson, each of whom considered a franchise-altering talent in their own right, it’s not the end of the world.
Related: 2023 NHL Draft: Baracchini’s Top 64 January Rankings
It would be less than ideal, sure. However, there’s still enough talent at the top of the order, where the Canadiens will pick, to help with the rebuild. It’s just one of those rare draft years where the Canadiens have an almost can’t-miss chance at taking a star player (as long as you do your best to dismiss the notion of a repeat of Andrei Kostitsyn in 2003).
Ultimately though, even if the Canadiens could realistically end up with a consolation prize, take some consolation in the fact that a) it’s out of fans’ control and whatever is going to happen is going to happen and b) the management team in place at the very least understands the need for a proper rebuild. For example, regardless of how well Montembeault has played, you don’t willingly enter this season with a goaltending tandem comprising him and Jake Allen looking to win a lot of games.
So, Hughes understands the stakes. There may not be reason to have blind faith in the guy, but there also isn’t any reason to doubt him at this juncture (even if you disagreed with him taking Slafkovsky No. 1 overall last summer, which can still turn out to have been the right move). No. 1 this upcoming summer isn’t completely out of reach yet, but, remember, it was never going to be a certainty anyway.
The only reasonable takeaway right now is the Canadiens are doing slightly better in the standings than initially expected (even with all the injuries). That just means things are on the right track. Combined with the guaranteed high pick, even if it doesn’t end up being Bedard, things can only get even better next season. The Canadiens remain in a good position, both with regard to the standings for the sake of a high pick… and the big picture.
