Some may say the Montreal Canadiens won’t so much as be in a position to compete for a playoff spot in 2023-24. There’s definitely an argument to that effect, after two non-playoff seasons in a row. However, all the same, there’s little denying the Canadiens will be vastly improved regardless (assuming they can stay healthy).
The Canadiens finished in last place in the entire league in 2021-22. As this season draws to a close, they’re already 13 points better (with three games remaining). By logic alone, they’re bound to build on that progress in 2023-24, putting them at least in the mix for a wild-card spot. However, even if doubters don’t believe the numbers, maybe they will their eyes. Looking at the Canadiens’ most common lines right now and what they’re projected to be, there are at least three places they’re poised to improve drastically. Here they are:
3. Barron in for Wideman on Defense
Since being called up in late December, defenseman Justin Barron has been a relative mainstay in the lineup. Playing 36 games so far, Barron has scored three goals and 14 points, working with an average of 15:58 in ice time. In comparison, veteran depth-defenseman Chris Wideman is getting 13:21, with six assists, in 43 total games, just 22 coming since Barron’s season debut.
All in all, it’s clear Barron has more of a future with the team, especially seeing as he was the centerpiece of the Artturi Lehkonen trade. In contrast, Wideman has already served his purpose as a body in the lineup on the right side, when the Canadiens had been lacking them.
Wideman still has use, potentially as a seventh defenseman. However, with David Savard under contract for the foreseeable future and Johnathan Kovacevic having emerged as a everyday player on the team, there just isn’t room for everyone anymore. Wideman must be the odd man out on the right side, with head coach Martin St. Louis now effectively forced into having to rethink his deployment strategy of rotating his left-handed young guns in Kaiden Guhle, Jordan Harris and Arber Xhekaj into that once-open spot on the right.
2. Harvey-Pinard in for Dadonov Upfront
There are no guarantees, but Kirby Dach could realistically assume the role of second-line center he was acquired to play from the get-go next season. That means Sean Monahan probably leaves as an unrestricted free agent, which makes sense based on his injury history.
Related: Who’s Likely Playing Their Last Season With the Canadiens in 2022-23?
Discounting his 38.3% faceoff percentage, Dach is nevertheless an arguable upgrade down the middle based on level of play in general with Monahan out since December. That’s not intended as a slight to Monahan, who proved to be effective and provide valuable secondary scoring when healthy. It’s just a fact. In such an instance, Josh Anderson probably takes Dach’s spot complementing Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield on the top line, as the former was Suzuki’s second-most common right-winger this season.
Meanwhile, Dach’s most common linemates with him at center have been Evgeny Dadonov and Mike Hoffman. There’s an outside chance the Canadiens trade Hoffman, opening the door for a (potentially) re-signed Denis Gurianov to take his spot. However, Dadonov, who went the other way to the Dallas Stars in the Gurianov trade, is not coming back. Rookie Rafael Harvey-Pinard has earned that top-six spot.
Of course, 2022 No. 1 overall pick (and fellow-right-winger) Juraj Slafkovsky could just as easily get it instead. However, Harvey-Pinard seems like more of a complement to Dach based on the styles of play of everyone involved. If so, based on Dadonov’s lack of output (four goals and 18 points in 50 games), Harvey-Pinard is a clear upgrade.
Sure, Harvey-Pinard may not score at his current pace again (14 goals and 20 points in 33 games). Even so, he’s poised to inject a great deal of youthful exuberance and hunger into the lineup that the 34-year-old Dadonov just wasn’t, especially as a pending unrestricted free agent. Literally 10 years younger, Harvey-Pinard looks like he would fit right in (and stay).
1. Montembeault over Allen in Net
Yes, the Canadiens made a commitment to Jake Allen, when they re-signed him up to 2025. However, things rarely work out as planned, and this is one instance where the Canadiens have to face the fact his backup in Samuel Montembeault, for all intents and purposes, has played significantly better than him… better than many other goalies in fact.
If you want to rely solely on his relatively pedestrian .906 save percentage instead of analytics, that works too. Allen’s is .891. Over Montembeault’s 37 games, he’s faced 1,126 shots, so 30.4 per game. Extrapolate those same averages over, say, 55 games in an 82-game season, effectively how much your typical starter plays. Montembeault would hypothetically allow 158 goals in that span, Allen, receiving the same level of defense (so facing 30.4 shots per game) would allow 182.
The 24 goals may not seem like a lot over a complete regular season, but the Canadiens allow a 29th-ranked 3.66 per game. Furthermore, of their 42 losses, literally 24 (coincidentally) have been by two or fewer goals. There are currently 21 points between the Canadiens and the second-wild-card New York Islanders. That right there corresponds to a huge chunk of the difference. It’s admittedly far from an exact science, but the point is Montembeault, who is impressively a .500 goalie this season (16-16-3) on a bad team, would lead to far more victories than Allen.
Granted, little ever suggested Montembeault could be a legitimate No. 1 before he started stealing points with impunity this season. However, he is potentially just coming into his own as a 26-year-old. Maybe he develops into a starter, maybe not, but he is definitely more of a viable option than Allen at the points they are in their respective careers, and as the rebuild progresses into 2023-24, the commitment general manager Kent Hughes and head coach Martin St. Louis made to turn this team into a winner takes on a little more weight, than the one made to Allen.
Going with Montembeault alone won’t be enough, but combined with a year of added experience on the part of the team’s other young players? The Canadiens can do damage, based on how they’re projected to improve throughout the lineup, at least on paper. They obviously still have to play the games, but they’ll each at least be very interesting, the entire season theoretically, start to finish.
