On one hand, Montreal Canadiens defenseman Kaiden Guhle’s early-season upper-body injury was a sign things continue to go badly on the injury front, especially in light of Kirby Dach’s torn ACL/MCL. If you’re looking at the glass as half-full though, the fact Guhle is just day to day is actually… well, maybe stop short of suggesting it’s a good thing, but it is nevertheless a relief of some sort.
More than that, it’s a sign the Canadiens actually can catch a break. Now, no one should speak too soon until Guhle is back and healthy as possible for fear of jinxing it. Plus, the playoffs remain little more than a pipe dream for the still-rebuilding Habs. So, how much does it matter really? All on its own, not all that much, but, taken with the following five positives fans have seen so far, it should mean a great deal.
5. Jake Allen’s Play
Goalie Jake Allen takes the least-impressive spot on this list, despite incredibly impressive numbers: His 2-0-1 record with a 2.58 goals-against average and .929 save percentage arguably make him the team’s most valuable player so far.
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Now, the Canadiens gave up late two-goal leads in each of Allen’s first two games, losing to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the season opener, while they pulled out an 3-2 overtime victory over the Washington Capitals on Oct. 21. However, there were points in each of those games where it looked like he’d steal them both in regulation. He did just that against the Buffalo Sabres on Oct. 23 though, when he held the fort and stopped 36 of 37 shots for a 3-1 victory.
However, as impressive as Allen’s been, it doesn’t really matter. To be a buzzkill once again, the playoffs aren’t exactly in the cards. So, however well he plays, his performances don’t factor into the team’s fortunes, especially as he can’t rationally be considered the team’s No. 1 goalie either for the future or right now. At least he shouldn’t be.
It would be one thing if he were an up-and-coming backup in line for the starter’s role. However, Allen’s 33 on a contract the Canadiens realistically have second thoughts about with the emergence of Samuel Montembeault (at least as a viable alternative). Now, if Montembeault could string a few great performances together, to help solidify the position past next season, that would be worth a higher rank.
4. Faceoffs as a Whole
Statistically, the Canadiens can improve a whole lot, but faceoffs are one of the few areas in which they’re doing well. In fact, they’re actually leading the NHL with a 58.1% success rate. Considering they haven’t finished in the Top 20, let alone above 50% since 2019-20, that’s almost an accomplishment all on its own, even five games into the season.
“Almost,” because, of course it’s a small sample size. Secondly, there’s some debate as to how much faceoffs actually impact game outcomes. It’s of course a positive sign someone like Nick Suzuki is at 57.8.%, never having finished above 50% for some much needed optimism he can finally put together that one missing aspect of his game. However, it’s such a small part of the game in general that, despite the drastic improvement, the No. 4 spot is the highest it can possibly go on this list.
3. Early Returns on Newhook Acquisition
For the record, Alex Newhook is 40.0% in the dot. So, there are still some holes in his game, especially at center. However, it would have been hard to envision a better start to the season for the draft-day acquisition. It’s not so much about him having silenced doubters with a two-goal debut against the Leafs. Instead it’s more about him having shown he belongs.
Newhook also gets bonus points for effectively stepping into the second-line center spot when Dach first got injured. The fact head coach Martin St. Louis immediately turned to him is an indication the Canadiens are bullish on playing him at the position.
Things can change once center Christian Dvorak returns from injury in November. Newhook can easily be redeployed on the wing. However, Newhook has shown the Canadiens have the horses to pull through the Dach injury and salvage the season in some form.
2. Canadiens at Five on Five
Newhook aside, the Canadiens’ organizational depth is on full display every game. Obviously five far from make a season, but with exception to their 5-2 loss to the Minnesota Wild on Oct. 17, they’ve been in every one. It’s no excuse, but two shorthanded Wild goals (within a matter of seconds) helped decide that game early.
If it weren’t for the team’s piss-poor performance on the power play overall, it would be easier to write it off as a fluke. As it happens, special teams are an issue for the Canadiens to put it mildly and have been for seasons. However, at even strength, they’ve actually been pretty good, at least when they aren’t taking a league-leading 21 penalties in minutes per game. At five-on-five, they’ve let in a league-low two goals, while scoring 11.
Not including their latest game against the Sabres, the Habs have actually been controlled the play at even strength too. They own(ed) a 52.45% expected-goals rating at five-on-five, a figure that admittedly should take a hit based on how Allen just saved the team’s bacon, but a win is undeniably a win.
1. Caufield Picking Up Where He Left Off
And, at 3-1-1, the Canadiens are probably better off than where everyone thought they would be by now. If they can put it all together, they would be fairly unstoppable.
To be fair, despite some anxious moments, they were obviously successful closing out their last few games, including the aforementioned overtime win over the Capitals. Cole Caufield notched the overtime winner in that one, but, in the absence of realistic playoff expectations, it’s more so the goal itself, which gave him three in four (now five) games, that was headline-worthy over the victory itself.
To a degree, Caufield’s start isn’t necessarily the most impressive entry. However, it may be the most sustainable, based on his career to date, with him having just narrowly missed out on 50 goals in his first 82 games under St. Louis, dating back to the end of 2021-22. In fact, if Caufield had been held scoreless to date this season, it would be less than ideal, sure. However, it would be justifiable to attribute it simply to a slow start that would normalize over a time.
Instead, co-leading the Canadiens in goals and points, Caufield’s putting the team’s first 40-goal season since 1993-94 within reach. He’s making it perfectly rational not to stop there, in terms of hopes for how his season pans out.
Related: Likeliest Canadiens to Win NHL Awards in 2023-24
Individual accomplishments obviously aren’t the point of a team sport. Still, Caufield is showing more than simply being no worse for wear after he sustained a season-ending injury in the middle of 2022-23. He’s also proving the Canadiens right for locking him up for eight years and $62.8 million. Things may not be going perfectly right, right now, but Caufield’s play is a good sign that there will be plenty more to get excited about up to and including the later years of that extension… but far before too.
