When it comes down to it, if you’re the Montreal Canadiens, you don’t acquire an in-his-prime talent like Patrik Laine unless you have designs on competing for a playoff spot. Whether the Habs make it in the end is a decent subject to debate, but the Laine trade should only be interpreted as a sign general manager Kent Hughes has more moves to make, whether they come this offseason or not.
Granted, if the opportunity arises to acquire an $8.7 million talent like Laine for the miniscule price the Canadiens paid (and you have the cap space), logic dictates you seize it. However, logic also dictates that, in the process, you’re accelerating your timeline to complete the rebuild as well, seeing as Laine has just two years left under contract before he becomes an unrestricted free agent.
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The Canadiens were all but guaranteed to enjoy organic growth in the standings for a third straight season before the move. Finishing in last place in 2021-22 with 55 points, they increased to 68 in 2022-23 and 76 in 2023-24. So, based on the continued development of their young core and a presumed team-wide return to relative health, it shouldn’t have been seen as out of the question that they would play meaningful post-trade-deadline games in 2025, before Laine entered the picture.
Laine Enters Habs’ Fray
Now that Laine has, Hughes almost has a responsibility to take full advantage. It goes beyond the potential to flip Laine at that deadline due to the two years left under contract, You’re looking at someone whose trade value was low to start. If Laine can’t turn it around, after he scored nine points in 18 games last season, the Canadiens will have a hard time trading him, just like the Columbus Blue Jackets presumably did, settling for Jordan Harris (while giving back a second-round pick just to deal the totality of the contract). If he can on the other hand, he’s only going to be 27 in 2025-26 and in little danger of suddenly declining in terms of production. You’re realistically going to hold on as long as possible, putting the ball squarely in Hughes’ court to try to win ASAP.
Obviously, Hughes has other priorities in 2024-25. He has to get the most out of and for his current pending UFAs. Thankfully, these are mutually exclusive outcomes by and large, as none of the UFAs in question are especially critical to the team’s outlook this season, with defenseman David Savard being the likeliest to play a pivotal role as potentially Mike Matheson’s top-pairing defense partner. Even then though, it’s fairly clear he’s not a top-pairing-calibre player, all due respect to him.
Up front, barring a trade, Christian Dvorak arguably projects as the likeliest pending UFA to be put in a position to make a difference, as a one-time No. 2 centre on this team (who’s only 28 himself). However, it’s quite telling how, in an ideal situation, the Canadiens would trade Dvorak like yesterday, especially as it’s the one offseason priority not yet ticked off Hughes’ hypothetical list.
Laine Adds Scoring to Make Playoff Push
Maybe “ideal” is too strong of a word. However, at the very least few people can argue against it hurting them significantly to trade Dvorak, who’s failed to truly find his niche in three seasons with the team. In such an instance, Alex Newhook would logically slide into Dvorak’s old position at centre from the wing to pivot more of an offensively inclined third line than in the past. Rookie Joshua Roy could then take Newhook’s presumed spot on the second line (from ‘Canadiens’ Alex Newhook excited about the arrival of Patrik Laine,’ Montreal Gazette, Sept. 10, 2024), putting him in a great position to pick up where he left off as one of the team’s top forwards following the All-Star Game.
Roy is a perfect personification of another priority: the aforementioned continued development of the team’s young players. It’s a big one and a consideration head coach Martin St. Louis must make when creating his lineup game to game. Keep in mind, Roy was already finding significant success in a top-six role and Newhook the same at centre, playing between third-liners (in terms of calibre) Brendan Gallagher and Joel Armia to end last season. These aren’t exactly huge leaps of logic, believing the Canadiens would want to recapture lightning in a bottle in these respects.
Ironically, Laine makes it harder as his acquisition adds to the log jam up front. However, there are far worse problems to have, like not having enough bodies to form a competent top six. The Canadiens are in a position where, if they stay healthy, they could ice a worthwhile top nine. In and of itself, that doesn’t guarantee a playoff spot. However, it’s worth noting the average playoff team scored 274 goals last season. Only a single non-playoff team scored more than 270, the Detroit Red Wings (278), who tied with the wild-card Washington Capitals with 91 points.
The Canadiens meanwhile finished with 236 goals. In acquiring a one-time 44-goal scorer in Laine (without giving up any offense, really), they’ve constructed an offense on paper that has what it takes to make it to the postseason. There’s always going to be an argument that Laine doesn’t have what it takes anymore. Maybe he doesn’t. However, Hughes didn’t beat out the other teams in the Laine “sweepstakes” hoping for a has-been. He’s obviously hoping for a redemption story. The best ones in sports tend to end with playoff heroics.
