Though the New Jersey Devils have quite a bit of housekeeping to do this summer, namely re-signing Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier, they should still have some room to add to their roster. Re-signing Bratt and Meier might take them out of the running for a top-tier trade target, but general manager Tom Fitzgerald can still find quality while not putting the team in a long-term cap bind.
One of those potential targets is Arizona Coyotes forward Nick Schmaltz, who finished the 2022-23 season with 22 goals and 58 points in 63 games. He’s under contract for the next three years at a cap hit of $5.85 million and could be the kind of top-six addition Fitzgerald and the Devils want to make in an ideal world this offseason.
Schmaltz Has Cemented Top-6 Status
Though the Coyotes are rebuilding and are at least a couple of years away from making some noise in the Western Conference, they have a few intriguing players up front, Schmaltz being one of them. He finished with a nearly identical stat line a season ago — 23 goals and 59 points in 63 games. When prorated to 82 games, that comes out to a 29-goal, 76-point pace over the last two years.
While Schmaltz has produced at close to a 30-goal pace over the last two seasons, he’s not a high-volume shooter. Instead, he’s capitalized on his chances, even though he doesn’t generate many of them. He’s shot 17.6 percent over the last two seasons, just above his career average of 14.3 percent.
The concern is that Schmaltz has only generated 2.12 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over the last two seasons. That’s a low number that suggests shooting regression could be coming. But his teammate, Clayton Keller, has only averaged 2.62 high-danger chances per 60 minutes, and we know how good a player he is. That could be the product of playing on a Coyotes team that doesn’t spend much time in the offensive zone.
Schmaltz can put the puck in the back of the net, but where he excels is through his playmaking and passing ability. He gets the puck to high-danger areas through his passing and sets up his teammates for scoring chances. His transition numbers are a bit of a mixed bag, but that could be the product of playing on a Coyotes team that’s consistently gotten hemmed in the defensive zone over the last two years. There’s some good (zone exits) and bad (zone entry success), which could be a bit of a concern on a Devils team that likes to play primarily off the rush.
On the other hand, Schmaltz won’t have to drive a line in New Jersey. He’s not a play driver, to begin with, and with Meier, Bratt, Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier, they can do the hard work in transition. Even though there are some concerns about whether he can sustain shooting at this level, his underlying numbers certainly suggest he’s a legit player.
Over the last two seasons, Schmaltz has been worth an overall expected goals above replacement (xGAR) of 22.9. That places him just above Hischier, Jonathan Marchessault and Adrian Kempe, who just had a 40-goal campaign with the Los Angeles Kings. Schmaltz has been the Coyotes’ most-efficient five-on-five scorer over that stretch, averaging 2.54 points per 60 minutes. And when looking at his player card from JFresh, he ranks in the 85th percentile in wins above replacement (WAR) among his peers:
There’s pretty good evidence to suggest Schmaltz has cemented his top-six status, and on a better team, he should be able to replicate that success. It also helps that he can play center, though he’s primarily been a right winger over the last two years. In a similar fashion to Dawson Mercer, Devils coach Lindy Ruff could always move Schmaltz down the middle in the event of injuries. Now for the acquisition cost, which is a tad difficult to discern because of Schmaltz’s contract structure and how the Coyotes are probably unwilling to take on significant money in return.
Cost of Acquiring Schmaltz
Per The Athletic, the reason the Coyotes could move Schmaltz is because of his backloaded contract (From “NHL offseason trade board 2.0: The latest on the Jets, Leafs, Flyers and more — and how it impacts the market” – The Athletic, 6/10/2023). His actual dollar amounts for the final three years of his deal are $7.5 million, $8.45 million and $8.5 million. He also has a 10-team no-trade list that goes into effect on July 1. So if the Coyotes move him, now seems to be the time.
Related: Devils 2023 Free Agent Targets: Wingers
It’s unlikely Coyotes GM Bill Armstrong wants to take on big money in return for Schmaltz since actual dollars matter to the organization. One comparison could be the Jakob Chychrun trade, which netted the Coyotes three draft picks — a conditional 2023 first-round pick and second-rounders in 2024 and 2026.
The Devils gave up their 2023 first in the trade that brought Meier to New Jersey at the 2023 trade deadline, but they own their firsts in 2024 and 2025. However, the 2024 first has conditions on it from the Meier trade; if the Devils make the 2024 Eastern Conference Final, the pick transfers over to the San Jose Sharks instead of a 2024 second. So the Devils would have to look at giving up a 2025 first and other futures in this scenario.
The Coyotes have a ton of futures as is, and they probably wouldn’t mind more. But even though they wouldn’t mind more picks, they have to hit the cap floor. As is, they’re $8,865,278 below the floor, and moving Schmaltz’s $5.85 million cap hit would only increase that number. On the flip side, to feel comfortable with their cap situation after signing Bratt and Meier, the Devils would have to shed a bit of money.
If the Devils add Schmaltz to their salary cap, moving a player like Yegor Sharangovich almost becomes a must. He shouldn’t cost much to re-sign, around $3 to $3.5 million per year, something the Coyotes should be able to afford, even if real dollars matter to them.
They also need to ice a roster, and Sharangovich is a capable middle-six winger who can score 20-25 goals a season when he’s on his game. That could make the package for Schmaltz look like Sharangovich, a first and a second, and perhaps a prospect. And if Sharangovich isn’t part of a deal for Schmaltz, the Devils could always move him in a separate trade for their own futures.
Schmaltz Would Join an Already Talented Top 6
It’s unlikely that the Devils will run back the same team they did in 2022-23. How Fitzgerald goes about the offseason remains to be seen. Will he add a veteran defenseman to replace the loss of Damon Severson and, most likely, Ryan Graves? Will he improve the team’s bottom-six depth only? Or will there be a combo of a top-six addition and some depth in the bottom six?
If the plan is to acquire a top-six forward, the Devils can’t add significant money unless they move one of Bratt or Meier because they can’t agree to a new contract; that seems unlikely at this time. With Schmaltz’s cap hit being under $6 million, they should be able to make that work. There are some concerns about if he can sustain his shooting percentage, given the rate at which he generates grade A and B chances. But that could also be the product of playing on a team that doesn’t spend much time in the offensive zone. Otherwise, there’s a fit for the versatile forward in New Jersey’s lineup.
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Advanced stats from Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick; microstats from Corey Sznjader/JFresh Hockey