To preface what follows, this certainly pales in comparison to issues the New Jersey Devils have faced in recent years. But now that the Devils have entered their contention window, it’s time to get more nitpicky.
Devils’ Lack of Bottom-Six Scoring
The production that the Devils have gotten from their bottom six is simply not good enough. It’s a big reason that they’re scoring over 10% fewer goals per 60 minutes (GF/60) compared to last season. It’s also a key reason that they’ve been shut out more this season (5) than the previous two seasons combined (4).
Take it from general manager Tom Fitzgerald himself, who said, “I think we need more from other people, to be quite honest, contributing wise…when the first line or second line doesn’t score a goal, we don’t score. So we need guys to step up and start producing.”
Erik Haula started off with three goals in his first 11 games (0.27 goals per game – GPG). He’s scored just one in the 24 afterward (0.04 GPG), a decrease of over 85%. Similarly, Paul Cotter scored six in his first 11 (0.55 GPG) but has just one in his last 24 (0.04 GPG) – a ~93% decrease (via Natural Stat Trick).
Tomas Tatar has just three goals in 31 games, which prompted him to become healthy scratched for a while. Kurtis MacDermid, Justin Dowling, Curtis Lazar and Nate Bastian haven’t brought much offense to the table at any point, as the four have just five goals in a combined 52 games.
Since Oct. 28, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier and/or Jack Hughes have factored in on 58 of the team’s 78 goals (74.3%). Of the remaining 20, Devils defensemen have more goals than their bottom-six forwards.
The Devils have been able to get by and remain one of the better teams in the NHL for a multitude of reasons. First, their defense has largely improved under head coach Sheldon Keefe, allowing over 24% fewer goals than last season. Secondly, their power play is clicking at the second-best clip in the NHL – 29.8% – and their stars are healthy and consistently contributing.
Most of the struggling bottom-sixers are at least playing a solid defensive game, so the issue hasn’t been as glaring. But it’s unfair for top players to have to fear having an off night, knowing that their secondary scoring is almost nonexistent.
Related: 3 Key Factors in Devils’ Power Play Surge
The good news for the Devils is that their own general manager is aware, and likely won’t let it slide if the trend continues. The Devils needed defensive help and he got Brenden Dillon, Brett Pesce and Johnathan Kovacevic. They also needed goaltending help and he snagged Jacob Markstrom. Fitzgerald is not someone who sits back and waits to find a remedy.
Odds are the Devils will make the playoffs. MoneyPuck gives them a 97.9% chance to do so. But once they’re there, it’s going to be much more difficult to string wins together if they can’t get any contributions from their bottom six.
Given that the Devils are still able to win on most nights regardless, this issue might not have to be fixed until the trade deadline. There are usually successful middle-six wingers from bottom-half teams who can fill that role but don’t fetch a ton of assets.
Taylor Hall is one player who might fit the mold, but there’s likely a plethora of others out there as well. Once the deadline nears, we should have a better idea of some realistic and cost-effective targets.
In an ideal world, players like Haula, Cotter, Tatar, etc. aren’t collectively slumping and will at least pick up the scoring a little more. That trio has a combined 49 shots since any of them have found twine; even two or three of them going in could have made a big difference.
In the meantime, expect Hughes, Hischier and Bratt to continue to light up the score sheet. When they don’t, well, there’s a good chance that an L is added to the Devils’ record.
