On Monday night, the New Jersey Devils were tasked with killing off Timo Meier’s five-minute major penalty late in the third period against the Nashville Predators. They put on an absolute clinic, allowing just one shot. Justin Dowling, who was serving the penalty, sprung out of the box, corralled the puck and hit the empty net. The crowd went into a frenzy. Dowling’s teammates mobbed him after scoring his first goal of the season.
Dowling Deserves Higher Praise
Many have cast Dowling in a negative light because of his surface stats and the fact that he’s never made much of his NHL stints – 85% of his 684 professional games have come outside of the NHL, 572 in the American Hockey League (AHL) and 60 in the ECHL. The 34-year-old journeyman has never played more than 29 games in an NHL season, and that was in 2019-20 with the Dallas Stars.
In 12 games with the Devils, he has just a goal and an assist with a minus-2 rating. But when you dig deeper, his numbers are dragged down significantly by playing alongside Kurtis MacDermid. With MacDermid and Dowling both on the ice (35:12 of ice time – TOI), the Devils are a mess. They’ve had just 25% of the high-danger chances share and 37.74% of shot attempts. Their goalies have just a .769 save percentage (SV%), as they’re constantly hemmed in their zone (via Natural Stat Trick).
When Dowling is without MacDermid (66:37 TOI), the numbers are much better, proving Dowling is a serviceable fourth-line option. Shot attempts are plus-6, high-danger chances are plus-2, and the Devils have a 57.38 expected goals for percentage (xGF%). Goalies have a .920 SV%.
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Based on xGF%, Tomas Tatar, Dowling, and Paul Cotter have been the fourth-best line on the team of 19 combinations (min. 10:00 TOI). Tatar, Dowling and Shane Bowers are fifth (via MoneyPuck). They achieve this success rather unconventionally by playing stifling defense instead of dominating offensively. Without MacDermid but with Dowling, the Devils allow just 1.43 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Yes, it’s a small sample, but Dowling had a higher preseason xGF% than every Devil except Dawson Mercer and Nico Hischier.
The eye test checks out, too. He wins a lot of board battles, and when playing with other gritty players, they’re able to keep possession in the offensive zone. According to NHL Edge, Dowling is in the 72nd percentile of offensive zone time. His prowess is not in the faceoff dot, but he’s typically around 50% and won eight of 10 against the Predators.
Dowling Is Responsible
Getting anything above league average from essentially a career AHLer should be considered a victory. There’s not much to complain about Dowling. He’s not going to be lighting up the scoresheet, but he’ll play a responsible game while skating for a little over eight minutes a night. With so much offensive firepower, the Devils can also get by if Dowling keeps it up.
The Devils themselves have caught onto the trend with MacDermid, as Nolan Foote is projected to slot into the lineup instead on Wednesday vs. the St. Louis Blues. Paul Cotter will move up to the second line, with Timo Meier suspended for one game.
It’s cool that Dowling has been playing professionally since 2011, but only now is arguably the first time he deserves a real extended look at the NHL level. Regardless of his previous struggles to stay in the NHL, he’s earned roughly $3.3 million over his entire career (via Spotrac). Now, the hard work and persistence are paying off, potentially in more ways than just his wallet.
